Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackmores-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:928:1" rel="noopener">Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU)</a> Scheme Meeting result was announced earlier today, post-close the S&amp;P/ASX team announced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ventia-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34917:1" rel="noopener">Ventia (VNT AU)</a> would replace it on 21 July at the close.</li>
<li>This is not that surprising. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/janaghan-jeyakumar-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3173" rel="noopener">Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA</a> expected it in June, and it was a super-close second recently for him for the Sep rebalance. </li>
<li>Given the shareholder structure and flow dynamics, it's worth taking a closer look.</li>
</ul>


After the Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU) Scheme Meeting result was announced earlier today, post-close the S&amp;P/ASX team announced Ventia (VNT AU) would replace it on 21 July at the close.
This is not that surprising. Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA expected it in June, and it was a super-close second recently for him for the Sep rebalance. 
Given the shareholder structure and flow dynamics, it's worth taking a closer look.


Ventia Services (VNT) Selected to Join ASX 200 - Not A Surprise

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.</li>
<li>We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).</li>
<li>If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.
We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.


MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened during September as a result of the bear market.</li>
<li>Discounts to NAV (5 September): Alba, 47.3%; GBL, 34.8%; Heineken Holdings 21.6%; Industrivärden C, 9.8%; Investor B, 17.9%; Porsche Automobile Holding 34.9%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 8.5%.</li>
<li>Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: Porsche SE, Rio Tinto (DLC).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened during September as a result of the bear market.
Discounts to NAV (5 September): Alba, 47.3%; GBL, 34.8%; Heineken Holdings 21.6%; Industrivärden C, 9.8%; Investor B, 17.9%; Porsche Automobile Holding 34.9%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 8.5%.
Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: Porsche SE, Rio Tinto (DLC).


Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: September ‘22 Report

<ul>
<li>Edizione/Blacktone have obtained clearances from Bank of Italy and Bank of Spain regarding their voluntary takeover offer for Atlantia. Once the Consob approves the prospectus the offer can be launched.</li>
<li>The offer period should start in October and should be completed after 40 working days, with settlement by the end of November, and delisting by the end of the year.</li>
<li>Gross spread is 1.13%, 7.06% annualised return assuming settlement by 30 November. <strong>Long ATL IM</strong>.</li>
</ul>


Edizione/Blacktone have obtained clearances from Bank of Italy and Bank of Spain regarding their voluntary takeover offer for Atlantia. Once the Consob approves the prospectus the offer can be launched.
The offer period should start in October and should be completed after 40 working days, with settlement by the end of November, and delisting by the end of the year.
Gross spread is 1.13%, 7.06% annualised return assuming settlement by 30 November. Long ATL IM.


Edizione & KKR/​Atlantia: All Clearances Obtained

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened or stayed at the same level during August/beginning of September, in line with the loses in the main indexes.</li>
<li>Discounts to NAV (5 September): Alba, 46.1%; GBL, 34.1%; Heineken Holdings 21.3%; Industrivärden C, 10.1%; Investor B, 18.9%; Porsche Automobile Holding 29.4%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 14.5%.</li>
<li>Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: Industrivärden C vs. listed assets, Porsche, Rio Tinto (DLC).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened or stayed at the same level during August/beginning of September, in line with the loses in the main indexes.
Discounts to NAV (5 September): Alba, 46.1%; GBL, 34.1%; Heineken Holdings 21.3%; Industrivärden C, 10.1%; Investor B, 18.9%; Porsche Automobile Holding 29.4%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 14.5%.
Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: Industrivärden C vs. listed assets, Porsche, Rio Tinto (DLC).


Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: August ‘22 Report

Spain

ACS, Actividades de Construccion y Servicios, S.A. is an engineering and contracting company that develops civil and industrial infrastructures. The Company provides Civil Works Construction, Greenfield Concession Development, Industrial Services (electricity, oil and gas) and Environmental Services (waste treatment and facility management).

ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios (ACS SM)

ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios (ACS SM)

Ventia Services (VNT) Selected to Join ASX 200 - Not A Surprise

Ventia (VNT AU) was chosen to join the S&P ASX 200 on Friday's close, replacing Blackmores. It was not that much of a surprise. There have been...

Travis Lundy

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pullback in global equities continues with MSCI $ACWI testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance as $STOXX Europe 50 tests 3800-3840 resistance....

Vermilion Research

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: September ‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened during September as a result of the bear market. Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Edizione & KKR/Atlantia: All Clearances Obtained

The Benettons/Blackstone offer for Atlantia has obtained all clearances, and just pending prospectus authorization by the Consob, should be...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: August ‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened or stayed at the same level during August/beginning of September, in line with the loses in...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Ventia Services (VNT) Selected to Join ASX 200 - Not A Surprise

Ventia (VNT AU) was chosen to join the S&P ASX 200 on Friday's close, replacing Blackmores. It was not that much of a surprise. There have been...

Travis Lundy

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pullback in global equities continues with MSCI $ACWI testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance as $STOXX Europe 50 tests 3800-3840 resistance....

Vermilion Research

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: September ‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened during September as a result of the bear market. Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Edizione & KKR/​Atlantia: All Clearances Obtained

The Benettons/Blackstone offer for Atlantia has obtained all clearances, and just pending prospectus authorization by the Consob, should be...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: August ‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened or stayed at the same level during August/beginning of September, in line with the loses in...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Edizione & KKR/Atlantia: All Clearances Obtained