Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The year 2023 began with a significant downturn in the semiconductor market.</li><li>Significant capacity additions were brought on after the historic shortages due to COVID-19, and then demand wobbled as interest rates quickly rose.</li><li>Supply outpaced demand, and the market turned into a period of oversupply.</li></ul>

The year 2023 began with a significant downturn in the semiconductor market.Significant capacity additions were brought on after the historic shortages due to COVID-19, and then demand wobbled as interest rates quickly rose.Supply outpaced demand, and the market turned into a period of oversupply.

Semiconductor Outlook 2024: AI's Adolescence

<ul><li>Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It's a spooky time in markets.</li><li>So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season, specifically around the Magnificent 7. Let’s discuss.</li><li>I won’t discuss each company specifically, but I will focus on the high-level capex commentary.</li></ul>

Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It's a spooky time in markets.So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season, specifically around the Magnificent 7. Let’s discuss.I won’t discuss each company specifically, but I will focus on the high-level capex commentary.

Halloween Earnings Season 🎃 (Hyperscalers, TXN, VICR, SK Hynix, KLAC, MXL, INTC, AWE, ACMR, BESI)

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>While Trump's sweeping wins in presidential, senate and house, and supreme court earlier gave him unprecedented mandate to reform the US economy, his agenda is unrealistic to begin with; </li>
<li>ADS/Electrification, GAI/renewable/employment, (3) inflation/trade/ immigration are just three that the Trump Administration will likely backpedal.  Execution of Trump's economic agenda requires perfect coordination which is tough to pull off</li>
<li>For a short term trade, we recommend PDD and BYD. We also like Xiaomi. Consumption stocks can benefit from stimulus package from the Chinese government.</li>
</ul>


While Trump's sweeping wins in presidential, senate and house, and supreme court earlier gave him unprecedented mandate to reform the US economy, his agenda is unrealistic to begin with; 
ADS/Electrification, GAI/renewable/employment, (3) inflation/trade/ immigration are just three that the Trump Administration will likely backpedal.  Execution of Trump's economic agenda requires perfect coordination which is tough to pull off
For a short term trade, we recommend PDD and BYD. We also like Xiaomi. Consumption stocks can benefit from stimulus package from the Chinese government.


What Trump Can and Cannot Accomplish in His 2nd Term

<ul>
<li>1347 HK/ACMR US: Hua Hong Wuxi Fab Phase II begins tool move-in (+/+)</li>
<li>1810 HK/BIDU US/0175 HK: “Xiaomi criticized for selling cars at a loss” goes viral (+/-/-)</li>
<li>2150 HK:Nayuki's First Overseas Flagship Store Opens in Thailand (+)</li>
</ul>


1347 HK/ACMR US: Hua Hong Wuxi Fab Phase II begins tool move-in (+/+)
1810 HK/BIDU US/0175 HK: “Xiaomi criticized for selling cars at a loss” goes viral (+/-/-)
2150 HK:Nayuki's First Overseas Flagship Store Opens in Thailand (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1347HK/ACMR/1810HK/BIDU/175HK/1211HK/NIO/XPEV/TSLA/LI/2150HK/1519HK/ZTO/1810HK

<ul>
<li>BZ US: Age 16-24 unemployment rate decreased month-on-month for two consecutive periods.(+)</li>
<li>ACMR US/LRCX US/8035 JP/7735 JP: Congressmen put forward bill to block purchase of certain China made semiconductor equipment by US subsidy recipients (-/+/+/+)</li>
<li>LI US/XPEV US/NIO US/1810 HK: New energy vehicles LI continues to lead in the 24th week of 2024 (///////)</li>
</ul>


BZ US: Age 16-24 unemployment rate decreased month-on-month for two consecutive periods.(+)
ACMR US/LRCX US/8035 JP/7735 JP: Congressmen put forward bill to block purchase of certain China made semiconductor equipment by US subsidy recipients (-/+/+/+)
LI US/XPEV US/NIO US/1810 HK: New energy vehicles LI continues to lead in the 24th week of 2024 (///////)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:BZ US/ACMR US/LRCX US/8035 JP/7735 JP/LI US/XPEV US/NIO US/1810 HK

United States

ACM Research, Inc. develops wet processing technology. The Company produces equipment for a range of applications in integrated circuits and wafer level packaging, as well as offers coating, developer, wet stripping, scrubber, and plating systems. ACM Research serves customers worldwide.

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ACM Research (ACMR US)

Semiconductor Outlook 2024: AI's Adolescence

Its time to jog your memory. We've gone through the downturn, what does an upturn look like? The year 2023 began with a significant downturn in the...

Fabricated Knowledge

Halloween Earnings Season 🎃 (Hyperscalers, TXN, VICR, SK Hynix, KLAC, MXL, INTC, AWE, ACMR, BESI)

Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It's a spooky time in markets. So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season,...

Fabricated Knowledge

What Trump Can and Cannot Accomplish in His 2nd Term

Trump's ambitious economic agenda faces challenges and backpedaling. We see energy electrification, GAI power demand and inflation/immigration...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1347HK/ACMR/1810HK/BIDU/175HK/1211HK/NIO/XPEV/TSLA/LI/2150HK/1519HK/ZTO/1810HK

Hua Hong Wuxi Fab Phase II starts tool move-in, Xiaomi faces backlash for selling cars at a loss, Nayuki opens first overseas store in Thailand.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BZ US/ACMR US/LRCX US/8035 JP/7735 JP/LI US/XPEV US/NIO US/1810 HK

US youth unemployment rate is decreasing, Congressmen propose bill to block purchase of China-made semiconductor equipment by US subsidy...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Semiconductor Outlook 2024: AI's Adolescence

Its time to jog your memory. We've gone through the downturn, what does an upturn look like? The year 2023 began with a significant downturn in the...

Fabricated Knowledge

Halloween Earnings Season 🎃 (Hyperscalers, TXN, VICR, SK Hynix, KLAC, MXL, INTC, AWE, ACMR, BESI)

Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It's a spooky time in markets. So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season,...

Fabricated Knowledge

What Trump Can and Cannot Accomplish in His 2nd Term

​Trump's ambitious economic agenda faces challenges and backpedaling. We see energy electrification, GAI power demand and inflation/immigration...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1347HK/ACMR/1810HK/BIDU/175HK/1211HK/NIO/XPEV/TSLA/LI/2150HK/1519HK/ZTO/1810HK

​Hua Hong Wuxi Fab Phase II starts tool move-in, Xiaomi faces backlash for selling cars at a loss, Nayuki opens first overseas store in Thailand.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BZ US/ACMR US/LRCX US/8035 JP/7735 JP/LI US/XPEV US/NIO US/1810 HK

​US youth unemployment rate is decreasing, Congressmen propose bill to block purchase of China-made semiconductor equipment by US subsidy...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Trump's ambitious economic agenda faces challenges and backpedaling. We see energy electrification, GAI power demand and inflation/immigration...

Hua Hong Wuxi Fab Phase II starts tool move-in, Xiaomi faces backlash for selling cars at a loss, Nayuki opens first overseas store in Thailand.

US youth unemployment rate is decreasing, Congressmen propose bill to block purchase of China-made semiconductor equipment by US subsidy...