Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Apparently Elliott is requesting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-fudosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:565:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP)</a> conduct a very large buyback and to sell down its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Some 17 months after the Cheng Family failed to secure 50%+ of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano International (709 HK)</a>, the family are now calling an SGM to install friendly directors.</li>
<li>The<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson (2651 JP)</a> deal is not terribly surprising. It's not terribly surprising that it is being done cheaply. It IS being done too cheaply. This is bumpable by force. </li>
</ul>


Apparently Elliott is requesting Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) conduct a very large buyback and to sell down its stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP).
Some 17 months after the Cheng Family failed to secure 50%+ of Giordano International (709 HK), the family are now calling an SGM to install friendly directors.
TheLawson (2651 JP) deal is not terribly surprising. It's not terribly surprising that it is being done cheaply. It IS being done too cheaply. This is bumpable by force. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Fudosan/Oriental Land, Giordano, JSR, Pasona, Lawson, L'Occitane

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>On 5 February, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acerinox-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21243:1" rel="noopener">Acerinox SA (ACX SM)</a> announced a friendly $61/share all-cash offer to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haynes-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15211:1" rel="noopener">Haynes International (HAYN US)</a>, implied equity value $798 million, implied EV $970 million and 8.7% premium.</li>
<li>The offer represents 1.5x EV/24e Sales, 10.1x EV/24e EBITDA (5.8x including run-rate estimated synergies of c.$71 million, seemingly quite large). The acquisition amounts to approximately 33% of Acerinox's market cap.</li>
<li>Acerinox is paying higher multiples than those at which Acerinox itself is trading. The deal should close. The shares of Haynes are already up 2.7% pre-market after Q1 results. Long.
</li>
</ul>


On 5 February, Acerinox SA (ACX SM) announced a friendly $61/share all-cash offer to acquire Haynes International (HAYN US), implied equity value $798 million, implied EV $970 million and 8.7% premium.
The offer represents 1.5x EV/24e Sales, 10.1x EV/24e EBITDA (5.8x including run-rate estimated synergies of c.$71 million, seemingly quite large). The acquisition amounts to approximately 33% of Acerinox's market cap.
Acerinox is paying higher multiples than those at which Acerinox itself is trading. The deal should close. The shares of Haynes are already up 2.7% pre-market after Q1 results. Long.



Acerinox/Haynes: Expansion in High-Performance Alloys

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Recent developments have continued to reinforce our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI).</li>
<li>There is no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into the early part of 2024.</li>
<li>Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Actionable Themes: 44 individual stock buy recommendations within Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Materials</li>
</ul>


Recent developments have continued to reinforce our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI).
There is no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into the early part of 2024.
Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Actionable Themes: 44 individual stock buy recommendations within Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Materials


Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Overall Bullish Outlook Intact

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos haven't shown a clear trend during July/beginning of August. Investors have favored Swedish hodlcos, disliked GBL's results and avoided the Heineken/Heineken Holdings trade.</li>
<li>Discounts to NAV: Alba, 42.8%; GBL, 34.5%; Heineken Holdings to 21.5%; Industrivärden C, 7.8%; Investor B, 14.3%; Porsche Automobile Holding to 29.4%. Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 16.2%.</li>
<li>Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. If anything, recommended trades are: Industrivärden C vs. listed assets, Porsche, Rio Tinto (DLC).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos haven't shown a clear trend during July/beginning of August. Investors have favored Swedish hodlcos, disliked GBL's results and avoided the Heineken/Heineken Holdings trade.
Discounts to NAV: Alba, 42.8%; GBL, 34.5%; Heineken Holdings to 21.5%; Industrivärden C, 7.8%; Investor B, 14.3%; Porsche Automobile Holding to 29.4%. Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 16.2%.
Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. If anything, recommended trades are: Industrivärden C vs. listed assets, Porsche, Rio Tinto (DLC).


Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: July ‘22 Report

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have either remained within same levels or widened during June: Alba, 40.3%; GBL, 34.7%; Heineken Holdings to 20.9%; Industrivärden C, 13.8%; Investor B, 15.6%; </li>
<li>Porsche Automobile Holding to 35.3%. Rio Tinto DLC widened to 23.4%.  Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short term recoveries provide opportunities to bet on tightening discounts.</li>
<li>Recommended trades: Industrivärden C vs. listed assets, Rio Tinto (DLC).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have either remained within same levels or widened during June: Alba, 40.3%; GBL, 34.7%; Heineken Holdings to 20.9%; Industrivärden C, 13.8%; Investor B, 15.6%; 
Porsche Automobile Holding to 35.3%. Rio Tinto DLC widened to 23.4%.  Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short term recoveries provide opportunities to bet on tightening discounts.
Recommended trades: Industrivärden C vs. listed assets, Rio Tinto (DLC).


Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: June ‘22 Report

Spain

Acerinox, S.A. manufactures and distributes hot and cold-rolled stainless steel products including slabs, billets, and bars.  The Company operates plants in Spain, the United States and South Africa, and piers used to ship raw materials.  The Company markets its products primarily in Europe, Asia, and the Americas.

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Acerinox SA (ACX SM)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Fudosan/Oriental Land, Giordano, JSR, Pasona, Lawson, L'Occitane

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Acerinox/Haynes: Expansion in High-Performance Alloys

Acerinox SA announces friendly $798 million offer to acquire Haynes, paying higher multiples than its own trading value to expand in high...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Overall Bullish Outlook Intact

Upgrading Mexico $EWW to Overweight; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Technology Remains Global Leadership. 44 individual buys highlighted in Tech,...

Vermilion Research

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: July ‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos haven't shown a clear trend during July/beg. of August. Investors have favored Swedish hodlcos, disliked GBL's...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: June ‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have either remained within same levels or widened during June. Spreads tend to widen in bear markets, it pays...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Fudosan/Oriental Land, Giordano, JSR, Pasona, Lawson, L'Occitane

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Acerinox/Haynes: Expansion in High-Performance Alloys

​Acerinox SA announces friendly $798 million offer to acquire Haynes, paying higher multiples than its own trading value to expand in high...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Overall Bullish Outlook Intact

Upgrading Mexico $EWW to Overweight; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Technology Remains Global Leadership. 44 individual buys highlighted in Tech,...

Vermilion Research

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: July ‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos haven't shown a clear trend during July/beg. of August. Investors have favored Swedish hodlcos, disliked GBL's...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: June ‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have either remained within same levels or widened during June. Spreads tend to widen in bear markets, it pays...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Acerinox SA announces friendly $798 million offer to acquire Haynes, paying higher multiples than its own trading value to expand in high...