Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We screen for Global companies at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges among active Global equity funds.</li>
<li>Low Positioning coupled with Negative Momentum:  Intel Corporation and Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation.</li>
<li>High Positioning coupled with High Momentum:  Amphenol Corporation and Iberdrola SA </li>
</ul>


We screen for Global companies at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges among active Global equity funds.
Low Positioning coupled with Negative Momentum:  Intel Corporation and Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation.
High Positioning coupled with High Momentum:  Amphenol Corporation and Iberdrola SA 


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>$SPX remains below 5783, the upper-end of important target/resistance area we've discussed for a month+ (5670-5783). 5670 was prior all-time high set in July, while 5783 is 2% above 5670.</li>
<li>It's hard to call it a "decisive" breakout if SPX isn't even 2% above its prior high.  In 2007, SPX made a top after climbing 1-2% above its prior high.</li>
<li>The 2007 topping analog has tracked the current market almost perfectly, with similar backdrops to today including new Fed cutting cycle, recession indicators going off, yield curve un-inverting, defensives outperforming</li>
</ul>


$SPX remains below 5783, the upper-end of important target/resistance area we've discussed for a month+ (5670-5783). 5670 was prior all-time high set in July, while 5783 is 2% above 5670.
It's hard to call it a "decisive" breakout if SPX isn't even 2% above its prior high.  In 2007, SPX made a top after climbing 1-2% above its prior high.
The 2007 topping analog has tracked the current market almost perfectly, with similar backdrops to today including new Fed cutting cycle, recession indicators going off, yield curve un-inverting, defensives outperforming


Still No Decisive Breakout as SPX Tests 5783 Resistance; Ideal Time to Shift to Defensives

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Tata Consultancy Svcs / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-sons-private-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25999:1" rel="noopener">Tata Sons</a>, holding company of Tata Group, is looking to raise around US$1.1bn via selling a 0.65% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consultancy-svcs-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18708:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN)</a>.</li>
<li>The deal doesn’t appear to be well-flagged although it could be part of Tata Sons’ recent moves to avoid an RBI mandated listing next year.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Tata Sons, holding company of Tata Group, is looking to raise around US$1.1bn via selling a 0.65% stake in Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN).
The deal doesn’t appear to be well-flagged although it could be part of Tata Sons’ recent moves to avoid an RBI mandated listing next year.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


TCS US$1.1bn Placement - Relatively Small but Isn’t Well Flagged, Could Have Implications for Others

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Since its emergence as the technology underpinning Bitcoin over a decade ago, blockchain has captured the imagination of technologists, investors and charlatans in roughly equal measure. Blockchain has been portrayed by its advocates as the solution to some of the most fundamental challenges facing modern-day society including free and fair elections, the protection of identity records and title deeds, supply chain integrity and, of course, enabling all manner of exotic cryptocurrencies. Little wonder then that we experienced a wave of blockchain mania which coincided with a similar level of cryptocurrency mania in late 2017. During that time, companies were adding "Blockchain" to their names and seeing their share prices soar by many multiples within weeks. Just as the crypto bubble burst in early 2018, so too did the blockchain bubble. Share prices of so-called blockchain companies collapsed just as quickly as they had risen. Testifying before a US senate committee in October 2018, professor of economics Nouriel Roubini was scathing in his criticism of blockchain <a href="https://www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Roubini%20Testimony%2010-11-18.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">referring</a> to it as  “The most over-hyped technology ever, no better than a spreadsheet/database”.
 Now, as the dust settles and the mania fades, we witness the emergence of a new class of enterprise-grade blockchain implementations led by the likes Hyperledger, Corda and various customisations of Ethereum. While the blockchain technologies supporting the likes of Bitcoin and Ethereum are public in so far as the data they contain is accessible by anybody who wishes to view it, these enterprise blockchain implementations are private, a necessary prerequisite for their potential deployment at major corporations and financial institutions. This distinction, along with a number of other important differences, means that enterprise blockchain represents a significant departure from the original public blockchain concept.
Today, enterprise blockchain is being deployed to tackle challenges across a swathe of verticals thanks to the likes of the Big Four consulting firms striving to position it at the heart of their business process reengineering practices. From Maersk to Walmart, they are convincing some of the world's biggest conglomerates to tackle age-old issues relating to outdated, inefficient, labor intensive business practices, all in the name of  blockchain.
It's not just the Big Four that are cashing in on enterprise blockchain. Professional services firm Accenture is investing heavily in its blockchain consulting practice. Blockchain as a Service (BaaS) solutions are available from enterprise software giants <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intl-business-machines-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1064:1" rel="noopener">Intl Business Machines</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oracle-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1065:1" rel="noopener">Oracle</a>,  <a href="https://www.sap.com/hk/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SAP</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft </a>and more recently from China’s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel </a>wants to ensure that enterprise blockchains runs best on its servers while Microsoft and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon </a>want to host them on their clouds. It's little surprise then that enterprise and government spending on blockchain is expected to reach $2.9 billion in 2019, an increase of 89% over the previous year according to <a href="https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS44898819" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IDC</a>. Furthermore, they predict that spending on enterprise blockchain will reach $$ja12.4 billion by 2022.
In common with Roubini, our belief has long been that blockchain as a technology offers little that was not already available elsewhere and before. Enterprise blockchains bear little resemblance to the technical ingenuity that gave us Bitcoin, but which is otherwise largely useless. The populist mantra that enterprise blockchain has the ability to transform the business processes of major corporations, key industry verticals and governments is a largely a delusion in our opinion. <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/blockchains-occam-problem" target="_blank" rel="noopener">This</a> recent report from McKinsey further supports our perspective, noting that blockchain has yet to become the game-changer some expected and recommending that it should only be considered when it is the simplest solution available.
Paradoxically, if the allure of blockchain can be leveraged as the motivating factor to undertake the much-needed digital transformation and business process re-engineering required to modernize outdated, legacy practices and procedures, then it may indeed have some inherent, albeit unintended, value. Furthermore, our interviews with the CEOs of two small, privately held startups clearly indicated that they are actually finding important, albeit niche, use cases for blockchain technologies in their solution stacks.  In this context, it makes sense to view blockchain as an emerging technology actively seeking real-world use cases and likely to be strongly promoted by its proponents in the coming years.
Against this backdrop, how should investors think about the investment opportunities for blockchain? For starters, venture capital interest grew significantly in 2018 with some $5.4 billion invested in blockchain related startups, up from $1.5 billion the previous year according to <a href="https://next.autonomous.com/thoughts/crypto-blockchain-lands-at-24b-in-2018-funding-1b-in-stos-coming" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Autonomous Research</a>. Nonetheless, our analysis of multiple categories of companies with blockchain exposure reveals a harsh reality. Neither their blockchain related revenues nor any cost savings directly attributable to the technology are significant enough to have any meaningful impact on their valuations from a fundamentals perspective, a situation we do not expect to change any time soon. The same holds true for the blockchain-related ETFs and hedge funds we examined.
On a more positive note, there are some excellent companies doing exciting things with blockchain and related technologies. Privately held GuardTime and Digital Assets should be on investors watch lists for funding rounds and IPOs. We expect publicly listed <a href="https://www.garage.co.jp/en/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Digital Garage</a> and <a href="https://www.broadridge.com/intl/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Broadridge Financial Solutions</a> to continue to perform well and feel that they should be considered as part of a broader fintech portfolio. By the same token, we are positive on the growth opportunities of blockchain-associated multinationals such as <a href="https://www.microsoft.com/en-hk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Microsoft</a>, <a href="https://www.ibm.com/hk-en" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IBM</a>, <a href="https://www.visa.com.hk/en_HK" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Visa</a>, <a href="https://www.mastercard.us/en-us.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mastercard</a> etc, albeit for reasons that have little to do with blockchain.

Since its emergence as the technology underpinning Bitcoin over a decade ago, blockchain has captured the imagination of technologists, investors and charlatans in roughly equal measure. Blockchain has been portrayed by its advocates as the solution to some of the most fundamental challenges facing modern-day society including free and fair elections, the protection of identity records and title deeds, supply chain integrity and, of course, enabling all manner of exotic cryptocurrencies. Little wonder then that we experienced a wave of blockchain mania which coincided with a similar level of cryptocurrency mania in late 2017. During that time, companies were adding "Blockchain" to their names and seeing their share prices soar by many multiples within weeks. Just as the crypto bubble burst in early 2018, so too did the blockchain bubble. Share prices of so-called blockchain companies collapsed just as quickly as they had risen. Testifying before a US senate committee in October 2018, professor of economics Nouriel Roubini was scathing in his criticism of blockchain referring to it as  “The most over-hyped technology ever, no better than a spreadsheet/database”.
 Now, as the dust settles and the mania fades, we witness the emergence of a new class of enterprise-grade blockchain implementations led by the likes Hyperledger, Corda and various customisations of Ethereum. While the blockchain technologies supporting the likes of Bitcoin and Ethereum are public in so far as the data they contain is accessible by anybody who wishes to view it, these enterprise blockchain implementations are private, a necessary prerequisite for their potential deployment at major corporations and financial institutions. This distinction, along with a number of other important differences, means that enterprise blockchain represents a significant departure from the original public blockchain concept.
Today, enterprise blockchain is being deployed to tackle challenges across a swathe of verticals thanks to the likes of the Big Four consulting firms striving to position it at the heart of their business process reengineering practices. From Maersk to Walmart, they are convincing some of the world's biggest conglomerates to tackle age-old issues relating to outdated, inefficient, labor intensive business practices, all in the name of  blockchain.
It's not just the Big Four that are cashing in on enterprise blockchain. Professional services firm Accenture is investing heavily in its blockchain consulting practice. Blockchain as a Service (BaaS) solutions are available from enterprise software giants Intl Business Machines, Oracle,  SAP and Microsoft and more recently from China’s Alibaba and Baidu. Intel wants to ensure that enterprise blockchains runs best on its servers while Microsoft and Amazon want to host them on their clouds. It's little surprise then that enterprise and government spending on blockchain is expected to reach $2.9 billion in 2019, an increase of 89% over the previous year according to IDC. Furthermore, they predict that spending on enterprise blockchain will reach $$ja12.4 billion by 2022.
In common with Roubini, our belief has long been that blockchain as a technology offers little that was not already available elsewhere and before. Enterprise blockchains bear little resemblance to the technical ingenuity that gave us Bitcoin, but which is otherwise largely useless. The populist mantra that enterprise blockchain has the ability to transform the business processes of major corporations, key industry verticals and governments is a largely a delusion in our opinion. This recent report from McKinsey further supports our perspective, noting that blockchain has yet to become the game-changer some expected and recommending that it should only be considered when it is the simplest solution available.
Paradoxically, if the allure of blockchain can be leveraged as the motivating factor to undertake the much-needed digital transformation and business process re-engineering required to modernize outdated, legacy practices and procedures, then it may indeed have some inherent, albeit unintended, value. Furthermore, our interviews with the CEOs of two small, privately held startups clearly indicated that they are actually finding important, albeit niche, use cases for blockchain technologies in their solution stacks.  In this context, it makes sense to view blockchain as an emerging technology actively seeking real-world use cases and likely to be strongly promoted by its proponents in the coming years.
Against this backdrop, how should investors think about the investment opportunities for blockchain? For starters, venture capital interest grew significantly in 2018 with some $5.4 billion invested in blockchain related startups, up from $1.5 billion the previous year according to Autonomous Research. Nonetheless, our analysis of multiple categories of companies with blockchain exposure reveals a harsh reality. Neither their blockchain related revenues nor any cost savings directly attributable to the technology are significant enough to have any meaningful impact on their valuations from a fundamentals perspective, a situation we do not expect to change any time soon. The same holds true for the blockchain-related ETFs and hedge funds we examined.
On a more positive note, there are some excellent companies doing exciting things with blockchain and related technologies. Privately held GuardTime and Digital Assets should be on investors watch lists for funding rounds and IPOs. We expect publicly listed Digital Garage and Broadridge Financial Solutions to continue to perform well and feel that they should be considered as part of a broader fintech portfolio. By the same token, we are positive on the growth opportunities of blockchain-associated multinationals such as Microsoft, IBM, Visa, Mastercard etc, albeit for reasons that have little to do with blockchain.
  

The Blockchain Delusion. A (Mostly) Bearish Investment Thesis.

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Accenture plc delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent results, with revenues falling short of Wall Street expectations but above-par earnings.</li><li>Accenture now boasts a roster of 300 Diamond clients, underscoring its extensive capabilities and the trust these clients place in its services.</li><li>The company is poised to leverage opportunities in cloud migration, modern ERP, data and AI, and the emerging Gen AI space.</li></ul>

Accenture plc delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent results, with revenues falling short of Wall Street expectations but above-par earnings.Accenture now boasts a roster of 300 Diamond clients, underscoring its extensive capabilities and the trust these clients place in its services.The company is poised to leverage opportunities in cloud migration, modern ERP, data and AI, and the emerging Gen AI space.

Accenture plc: Can The Latest Investments In AI

Ireland

Accenture PLC provides management and technology consulting services and solutions.  The Company delivers a range of specialized capabilities and solutions to clients across all industries on a worldwide basis.  Accenture's network of businesses provides consulting, technology, outsourcing, and alliances.

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Accenture Plc Cl A (ACN US)

Global Funds: Extreme Stocks

In this report, we utilize our Global fund holdings database to screen for stocks at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges.

Steven Holden

Still No Decisive Breakout as SPX Tests 5783 Resistance; Ideal Time to Shift to Defensives

Still No Decisive Breakout as $SPX Tests 5783 Resistance; On watch for SPX bull trap/failed breakout, confirmed only on a break below 5670. 2007...

Vermilion Research

TCS US$1.1bn Placement - Relatively Small but Isn’t Well Flagged, Could Have Implications for Others

Tata Sons, holding company of Tata Group, is looking to raise around US$1.1bn via selling a 0.65% stake in Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN).

Sumeet Singh

The Blockchain Delusion. A (Mostly) Bearish Investment Thesis.

Back when I wrote this, Blockchain was all the rage, but I struggled to see the true value proposition, felt there was a huge amount of hype...

William Keating

Accenture plc: Can The Latest Investments In AI

Accenture plc delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent results, with revenues falling short of Wall Street expectations but above-par...

Baptista Research

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