Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Adani names are seeing new news and commentary. SEBI is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-regulator-probing-some-adani-offshore-deals-possible-rule-violations-2023-04-01/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">probing offshore deals</a> for rules violations, SEBI filed an interim report Sunday with the Court, Cements are refinancing US$4bn.</li>
<li>GQG's Jain was interviewed by Bloomberg TV in NY saying he sees his Adani basket being a "multi-bagger in five years." </li>
<li>Assuming growth and margins equivalent to peer max rates, all profits reinvested, and 100% gain in stock price in 5yrs, NP CAGR=33%, 2028 EV/EBITDA average of four names is 29.4x. </li>
</ul>


The Adani names are seeing new news and commentary. SEBI is probing offshore deals for rules violations, SEBI filed an interim report Sunday with the Court, Cements are refinancing US$4bn.
GQG's Jain was interviewed by Bloomberg TV in NY saying he sees his Adani basket being a "multi-bagger in five years." 
Assuming growth and margins equivalent to peer max rates, all profits reinvested, and 100% gain in stock price in 5yrs, NP CAGR=33%, 2028 EV/EBITDA average of four names is 29.4x. 


GQG Calls Adani Names 5Yr "Multi-Baggers" - It Works at 30% EPS CAGR if You Torture the Numbers

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELETEs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>At present, I do not see any changes for the SENSEX index. For the BSE 100 and BSE 200 indices I see six and five changes respectively.</li>
<li>Some of these changes are different from those expected in my last insight. However, the changes expected in <em>this</em> insight will be my final expectations for the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELETEs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.
At present, I do not see any changes for the SENSEX index. For the BSE 100 and BSE 200 indices I see six and five changes respectively.
Some of these changes are different from those expected in my last insight. However, the changes expected in this insight will be my final expectations for the December 2023 Rebalance.


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 23: Bandhan Bank Could Underperform State Bank

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Power Grid Corporation Of India / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpse-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28191:1" rel="noopener">CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN)</a> and a bunch of other indices will be implemented at the close of trading today.</li>
<li>Depending on the index, there are constituent changes, changes to the number of shares and free float, plus capping changes. Put together, there is a lot of flow and impact.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade will be in excess of US$1bn. Add in the futures &amp; options expiry and volumes will be extremely high in the last 30 minutes of trading.</li>
</ul>


The rebalance of the NIFTY, Nifty Next 50, NSE Nifty Bank, CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN) and a bunch of other indices will be implemented at the close of trading today.
Depending on the index, there are constituent changes, changes to the number of shares and free float, plus capping changes. Put together, there is a lot of flow and impact.
The round-trip trade will be in excess of US$1bn. Add in the futures &amp; options expiry and volumes will be extremely high in the last 30 minutes of trading.


NIFTY Family Index Rebalance: Flows at the Close Today + F&O Expiry

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELETEs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>The BSE AllCap index Rebalance was completed in September 2023. There were 77 ADDs and 73 DELs. </li>
<li>Since the BSE AllCap index is the main universe for the BSE 200, 100, and SENSEX indices, there have been some changes to our December 2023 index change expectations.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELETEs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.
The BSE AllCap index Rebalance was completed in September 2023. There were 77 ADDs and 73 DELs. 
Since the BSE AllCap index is the main universe for the BSE 200, 100, and SENSEX indices, there have been some changes to our December 2023 index change expectations.


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 23: AllCap Sep 23 Rebal Done; Some Changes to Expectations

Brilliance China Automotive / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Friday was the review cutoff for the September rebalance of the ASX family of indices. The September changes for the Hang Seng family of indices were also announced.</li>
<li>The September changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> will be announced after the close of trading on 25 August.</li>
<li>For a second week running, there were big inflows to mainland China ETFs and were spread across multiple index trackers. There were outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:438:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets (EEM US)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Friday was the review cutoff for the September rebalance of the ASX family of indices. The September changes for the Hang Seng family of indices were also announced.
The September changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) will be announced after the close of trading on 25 August.
For a second week running, there were big inflows to mainland China ETFs and were spread across multiple index trackers. There were outflows from iShares Emerging Markets (EEM US). 


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, NEXT50, MVMVA, MVMVW, Celltrion, Brilliance, KQ150, HSCI

India

ACC Limited  manufactures a range of cements and blended cements. The Company also manufactures gypsum and refractory products such as Brown Tabular Alumina. The Company provides turnkey and application consulting services for setting up and operating cement plants and refractories. The Company owns cement plants throughout India.

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ACC Ltd (ACC IN)

GQG Calls Adani Names 5Yr "Multi-Baggers" - It Works at 30% EPS CAGR if You Torture the Numbers

This is an update on the Adani Names where GQG Partners purchased a US$1.8bn stake from the Promoters themselves. They are up 25% in a month. Which...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 23: Bandhan Bank Could Underperform State Bank

The BSE SENSEX and BSE 100 index changes for Dec 23 could be announced in a few days. This might be good time to revisit Quiddity's final...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

NIFTY Family Index Rebalance: Flows at the Close Today + F&O Expiry

The rebalance of the NIFTY family of indices will be implemented at the close today. The round-trip trade is around US$1bn and volumes at the close...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 23: AllCap Sep 23 Rebal Done; Some Changes to Expectations

Currently, I do not see any changes for the SENSEX Index in December 2023. There could be seven changes for the BSE 100 index and six changes for...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, NEXT50, MVMVA, MVMVW, Celltrion, Brilliance, KQ150, HSCI

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

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GQG Calls Adani Names 5Yr "Multi-Baggers" - It Works at 30% EPS CAGR if You Torture the Numbers

This is an update on the Adani Names where GQG Partners purchased a US$1.8bn stake from the Promoters themselves. They are up 25% in a month. Which...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 23: Bandhan Bank Could Underperform State Bank

The BSE SENSEX and BSE 100 index changes for Dec 23 could be announced in a few days. This might be good time to revisit Quiddity's final...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

NIFTY Family Index Rebalance: Flows at the Close Today + F&O Expiry

The rebalance of the NIFTY family of indices will be implemented at the close today. The round-trip trade is around US$1bn and volumes at the close...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 23: AllCap Sep 23 Rebal Done; Some Changes to Expectations

Currently, I do not see any changes for the SENSEX Index in December 2023. There could be seven changes for the BSE 100 index and six changes for...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, NEXT50, MVMVA, MVMVW, Celltrion, Brilliance, KQ150, HSCI

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 23: Bandhan Bank Could Underperform State Bank

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 23: AllCap Sep 23 Rebal Done; Some Changes to Expectations