Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>If you need a quick overview of Japan's retail sectors and the winners and losers within, the following provides an update on 2023 and where things are headed in 2024.</li>
<li>Drugstore consolidation continues but so does the sector's encroachment on supermarkets while leaders in department stores are delivering record profits and lifestyle retailing is back.</li>
<li>Some of the best performers compared to initial forecasts include Matsuya, ABC Mart, Adastria, Isetan-Mitsukoshi, Takashimaya, Kintetsu, J Front Retailing and Lawson.</li>
</ul>


If you need a quick overview of Japan's retail sectors and the winners and losers within, the following provides an update on 2023 and where things are headed in 2024.
Drugstore consolidation continues but so does the sector's encroachment on supermarkets while leaders in department stores are delivering record profits and lifestyle retailing is back.
Some of the best performers compared to initial forecasts include Matsuya, ABC Mart, Adastria, Isetan-Mitsukoshi, Takashimaya, Kintetsu, J Front Retailing and Lawson.


Japan Retail Update: Winners and Losers as FY2023 Ends

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Japan has a solid if stagnant footwear market, yet it only has one compelling nationwide footwear retailer.</li>
<li>ABC Mart continues to outperform its smaller rivals, with little competition as its main rivals decline further.</li>
<li>The real competition is coming from brands selling directly to customers via their own stores and online – and low-cost retailers nipping at its heels from below.</li>
</ul>


Japan has a solid if stagnant footwear market, yet it only has one compelling nationwide footwear retailer.
ABC Mart continues to outperform its smaller rivals, with little competition as its main rivals decline further.
The real competition is coming from brands selling directly to customers via their own stores and online – and low-cost retailers nipping at its heels from below.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.</li>
<li>Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe</li>
</ul>


We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.
We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.
Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe


Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In May 2022, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamada-denki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:641:1" rel="noopener">Yamada Denki (9831 JP)</a> announced a very large buyback. GINORMOUS - in fact - at 23.9% of shares out ex-Treasury if maximum shares were bought.</li>
<li>So far, YDH is 83.5% through, and at the recent pace, they will end it 8 May having bought 183-184mm shares (21.9% of TSO) spending 86.6% of funds allocated.</li>
<li>That's why the announcement lowering the March 2023 div to ¥12/share vs ¥18/share last year was just weird. And bodes badly. We need a lightbulb moment for a lightbulb dilemma.</li>
</ul>


In May 2022, Yamada Denki (9831 JP) announced a very large buyback. GINORMOUS - in fact - at 23.9% of shares out ex-Treasury if maximum shares were bought.
So far, YDH is 83.5% through, and at the recent pace, they will end it 8 May having bought 183-184mm shares (21.9% of TSO) spending 86.6% of funds allocated.
That's why the announcement lowering the March 2023 div to ¥12/share vs ¥18/share last year was just weird. And bodes badly. We need a lightbulb moment for a lightbulb dilemma.


Yamada Denki (9831) Buyback Almost Done and Odd Dividend "Cut", and a Lightbulb Dilemma

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. US Equities rise, defying higher yields and further yield curve inversion;  Fed's Bostic out again - talking of a summer pause; Telsa Day: Musk's Master Plan lacking details</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY Weakens to ¥136.8 on stronger USD;  Expectations rise  BOJ Policy Change in June;  Invidual invetors shifting to risk assets; Strong Retail SSS </li>
<li>NUGGET:Japan Video Streaming Wars: U-Next(9418) well positioned to flourish as consolidation kicks off in earnest.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. US Equities rise, defying higher yields and further yield curve inversion;  Fed's Bostic out again - talking of a summer pause; Telsa Day: Musk's Master Plan lacking details
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY Weakens to ¥136.8 on stronger USD;  Expectations rise  BOJ Policy Change in June;  Invidual invetors shifting to risk assets; Strong Retail SSS 
NUGGET:Japan Video Streaming Wars: U-Next(9418) well positioned to flourish as consolidation kicks off in earnest.


Good Morning Japan |Equities DEFY Yield Rise; Tesla Master Plan-Details Absent; NUGGET: U-Next(9418)

Japan

ABC-MART, INC. plans, develops, wholesales, and retails shoes.  The Company also plans and develops brand name shoes such as VANS and G.T. HAWKINS.  ABC-Mart imports and wholesales shoes, apparel, bags, and sundries as well.

Price Gauge
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Abc Mart Inc (2670 JP)

Japan Retail Update: Winners and Losers as FY2023 Ends

Summary: Japan's retail sectors in 2023 saw drugstore consolidation and encroachment on supermarkets, while dept. stores and lifestyle retailing...

Michael Causton

ABC Mart Expands Lead in Footwear

Despite a stagnant market, ABC Mart remains dominant in Japan's footwear industry, although it is now facing competition from direct brand sales...

Michael Causton

Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives as $ACWI tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93. Remain...

Vermilion Research

Yamada Denki (9831) Buyback Almost Done and Odd Dividend "Cut", and a Lightbulb Dilemma

Yamada Denki/Holdings is cheap. It is 8x earnings and 0.55x book. And that is AFTER a GINORMOUS buyback which has been disappointing. Now the...

Travis Lundy

Good Morning Japan |Equities DEFY Yield Rise; Tesla Master Plan-Details Absent; NUGGET: U-Next(9418)

NKY Futs +0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY Weakens to ¥136.8 on stronger USD; Expectations rise BOJ Policy Change in June; Invidual invetors shifting to...

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Retail Update: Winners and Losers as FY2023 Ends

​Summary: Japan's retail sectors in 2023 saw drugstore consolidation and encroachment on supermarkets, while dept. stores and lifestyle retailing...

Michael Causton

ABC Mart Expands Lead in Footwear

​Despite a stagnant market, ABC Mart remains dominant in Japan's footwear industry, although it is now facing competition from direct brand sales...

Michael Causton

Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives as $ACWI tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93. Remain...

Vermilion Research

Yamada Denki (9831) Buyback Almost Done and Odd Dividend "Cut", and a Lightbulb Dilemma

Yamada Denki/Holdings is cheap. It is 8x earnings and 0.55x book. And that is AFTER a GINORMOUS buyback which has been disappointing. Now the...

Travis Lundy

Good Morning Japan |Equities DEFY Yield Rise; Tesla Master Plan-Details Absent; NUGGET: U-Next(9418)

NKY Futs +0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY Weakens to ¥136.8 on stronger USD; Expectations rise BOJ Policy Change in June; Invidual invetors shifting to...

Mark Chadwick

Summary: Japan's retail sectors in 2023 saw drugstore consolidation and encroachment on supermarkets, while dept. stores and lifestyle retailing...

Despite a stagnant market, ABC Mart remains dominant in Japan's footwear industry, although it is now facing competition from direct brand sales...