AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research, AlphaSituations

Robert Sassoon

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research

AlphaSituations

Since its establishment, AlphaSituations has delivered a track record of outperformance with a hit rate of winners of more than 70% of its portfolio of ideas generating annualized average returns of 20%. In January 2022, AlphaSituations was contracted by Water Tower Research, an investor engagement and stakeholder communication platform to provide coverage of Special Situations

Event-Driven

Contingent value rights, or CVRs, are  arguably the rarest security class on a stock exchange, but have become more prevalent, particularly as part of the make-up in Biopharma merger transaction terms in the last few years. While these instruments do offer advantages to asset acquirers, we demonstrate below that CVR recipients rarely benefit.

Contingent value rights, or CVRs, are  arguably the rarest security class on a stock exchange, but have become more prevalent, particularly as part of the make-up in Biopharma merger transaction terms in the last few years. While these instruments do offer advantages to asset acquirers, we demonstrate below that CVR recipients rarely benefit.

MergerTalk: Contingency Value Rights - A Track Record Found Wanting

Founder

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

Cherrystone Hill Research

Equity Bottom-Up

BeiGene has outlicensed ex-China rights to its PD-1 tislelizumab to Novartis on favorable terms, validating the competitive position of this compound in a crowded market. Further, the agreement marks a growing trend of Chinese companies outlicensing products to multinationals, which can have a leveraged benefit on their P&amp;Ls and valuations.

BeiGene has outlicensed ex-China rights to its PD-1 tislelizumab to Novartis on favorable terms, validating the competitive position of this compound in a crowded market. Further, the agreement marks a growing trend of Chinese companies outlicensing products to multinationals, which can have a leveraged benefit on their P&amp;Ls and valuations.

BeiGene: Novartis Grabs Tislelizumab Rights

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Bio-Thera Solutions Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

In February 2020, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bio-thera-solutions-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29127:1" rel="noopener">Bio-Thera Solutions Ltd (688177 CH)</a> completed its listing on the SSE STAR Market. Then in 2020/2H, Bio-Thera planned to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming another biopharmaceutical company with "A+H" listing. Currently the Company’s market value was about RMB13.5 billion. So how about this company? The following provides the insights on its pipeline and related competitive landscape.

In February 2020, Bio-Thera Solutions Ltd (688177 CH) completed its listing on the SSE STAR Market. Then in 2020/2H, Bio-Thera planned to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming another biopharmaceutical company with "A+H" listing. Currently the Company’s market value was about RMB13.5 billion. So how about this company? The following provides the insights on its pipeline and related competitive landscape. 

Pre-IPO Bio-Thera Solutions - Insights on Pipeline and the Competitive Landscape

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

1. Industry viewpoints:<ul>
<li>Last week, the negotiations of volume-based purchase 2020 came to a close, and the bidding of PD-1/L1 was the most eye-catching.</li>
<li>In the future, with the rapid release of radiotherapy equipment in China, the penetration rate of radiotherapy is expected to be accelerated.</li>
<li>The use of traditional Chinese medicine in hospital is facing severe challenges.</li>
</ul>2. Company news:News about the updated progress of new drugs and cooperation from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ascletis-pharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27265:1" rel="noopener">Ascletis Pharma Inc (1672 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harbour-biomed-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29717:1" rel="noopener">Harbour Biomed (2142 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luye-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:488:1" rel="noopener">Luye Pharma (2186 HK)</a>.3. Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 4.25%, while CSI 300 increased 2.26% over the same period of time.4. Risk Disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

1. Industry viewpoints:
Last week, the negotiations of volume-based purchase 2020 came to a close, and the bidding of PD-1/L1 was the most eye-catching.
In the future, with the rapid release of radiotherapy equipment in China, the penetration rate of radiotherapy is expected to be accelerated.
The use of traditional Chinese medicine in hospital is facing severe challenges.
2. Company news:News about the updated progress of new drugs and cooperation from Ascletis Pharma Inc (1672 HK), Harbour Biomed (2142 HK) and Luye Pharma (2186 HK).3. Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 4.25%, while CSI 300 increased 2.26% over the same period of time.4. Risk Disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

Jacobio Pharmaceuticals / Equity Capital Markets

The terms of Jacobio's listing have been announced: a price range of HKD12-14, resulting in a pre-money valuation of US$1.1-1.3 billion and proceeds of US$140-160MM. The relatively small raise and limited uptake from Cornerstone investors indicate that the company is placing more emphasis on valuation over the amount raised. 
The company has cutting-edge technology; a credible partner in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abbvie-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1135:1" rel="noopener">Abbvie Inc (ABBV US);</a> and extensive trial readouts in 2021. We like the deal in the lower half of the range, but caution that buyers need a long-term view given the long road to NDA filings and likely limited trading volume post-deal.

The terms of Jacobio's listing have been announced: a price range of HKD12-14, resulting in a pre-money valuation of US$1.1-1.3 billion and proceeds of US$140-160MM. The relatively small raise and limited uptake from Cornerstone investors indicate that the company is placing more emphasis on valuation over the amount raised. 
The company has cutting-edge technology; a credible partner in Abbvie Inc (ABBV US); and extensive trial readouts in 2021. We like the deal in the lower half of the range, but caution that buyers need a long-term view given the long road to NDA filings and likely limited trading volume post-deal. 

United States

Amgen Inc. is an independent biotechnology medicines company that discovers, develops, manufactures and markets medicines for grievous illnesses. The Company focuses solely on human therapeutics and concentrates on innovating novel medicines based on advances in cellular and molecular biology.

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc. is an early-stage therapeutics company. The Company is developing technology that can specifically and potently silence disease-causing genes.

CSL Limited develops, manufactures, and markets human pharmaceutical and diagnostic products derived from human plasma. The Company provides products include pediatric and adult vaccines, infection, pain medicine, skin disorder remedies, antivenoms, anticoagulants, and immunoglobulins.

Moderna, Inc. operates as a biotechnology company. The Company focuses on the discovery and development of messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines. Moderna develops mRNA medicines for infectious, immuno-oncology, and cardiovascular diseases.

BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. develops and commercializes therapeutic enzyme products.  The Company has applied its proprietary enzyme technology to develop products for lysosomal storage diseases and for the treatment of serious burns. BioMarin's subsidiary provides analytical and diagnostic products and services in the area of carbohydrate biology.

Insmed, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing novel, targeted inhaled therapies for patients with high unmet need battling serious orphan lung diseases.

United Therapeutics Corporation develops pharmaceuticals to treat vascular diseases such as pulmonary hypertension and peripheral vascular disease.  The Company's lead products are stable synthetic forms of prostacyclin and are delivered orally or subcutaneously.

Natera, Inc. operates as a diagnostics company. The Company provides preconception and prenatal genetic testing services. Natera also offers pre-implantation genetic diagnosis, aneuploidy screening, translocation, and single gene testing services.

Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. is focused on the discovery and development of therapeutics for neuropsychiatric, neuroinflammatory, and neurodegenerative diseases and disorders.  The Company is developing therapeutic interventions for anxiety, depression, Alzheimer's disease, insomnia, stroke, malignant brain tumors, multiple sclerosis, obesity, and diabetes.

Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery and development of unique RNA-based therapeutics for the treatment of both rare and infectious diseases. The Company offers its products to the medical industry in countries around the world.

Celltrion Inc. produces and sells biosimilar products and also provides consignm ent processing service for other companies.  The Company's main product is Abata cept which is for arthritis treatment

argenx SE operates as a biotechnology company. The Company develops antibody based therapies for the treatment of severe autoimmune diseases and cancer. argenx serves customers in the Netherlands and Belgium.

BioNTech SE provides biotechnological solutions. The Company develops various types of treatments for cancer patients' tumors. BioNTech serves customers worldwide.

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Company Ltd. researches, manufactures, and sells vaccines and biological products including prevention products, blood products, diagnostic reagents, and therapeutic agents.

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products (300122 CH)

Alteogen Inc. is a pharmaceutical research company.  The Company researches and develops bio-medicines such as bio-better and bio-similar.

Genmab A/S operates as a biotechnology company. The Company creates and develops human antibody products for the treatment of life threatening and debilitating diseases. Genmab focuses on products to treat cancer, rheumatoid arthritis and other inflammatory conditions, and psoriasis. The Company develops new products through partnerships. Genmab operates in Europe and the United States.

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB (SOBI) operates as a bio-pharmaceutical and bio-technology company. The Company develops therapies and drugs for the treatment of haemophilia, inflammation, and genetic diseases. SOBI serves clients worldwide.

BeiGene, Ltd. operates as a commercial stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovery, development, and commercialization of molecularly targeted and immuno-oncology drugs for the treatment of cancer. BeiGene serves patients worldwide.

Genmab A/S operates as a biotechnology company. The Company specializes in development of antibody therapeutics for the treatment of cancer. Genmab serves customers worldwide.

Biocon Ltd., is an integrated biotechnology enterprise with a presence in biopharmaceuticals, enzymes, custom research and clinical research. The Company's pharmaceutical products include statins, immunosuppressants and anti-diabetic drugs. Biocon also manufactures specialty enzymes and new enzyme applications besides providing clinical and custom research services.

AbbVie Inc. researches and develops pharmaceutical products. The Company produces pharmaceutical drugs for specialty therapeutic areas such as immunology, chronic kidney disease, Hepatitis C, women's health, oncology, and neuroscience. AbbVie also offers treatments for diseases including Multiple Sclerosis, Parkinson's, and Alzheimer's disease.

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Abbvie Inc (ABBV US)

MergerTalk: Contingency Value Rights - A Track Record Found Wanting

CVRs have seen more usage in biopharma deals in the last few years, but is that a trend for investors to get excited about?

Robert Sassoon

BeiGene: Novartis Grabs Tislelizumab Rights

BeiGene's deal with Novartis for PD-1 tislelizumab validates its competitive position, and marks a rising trend of Chinese companies licensing...

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

Pre-IPO Bio-Thera Solutions - Insights on Pipeline and the Competitive Landscape

This article summarized the insights on major products of Bio-Thera Solutions in the pipeline and related competitive landscape with other key...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.18)

The article analyzed the news about the negotiation result of PD-1/L1 in China VBP, industry viewpoints about radiotherapy and traditional Chinese...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Jacobio: Management Solves for Valuation

We think that the offer terms for Jacobio's IPO are fair, but buyers need to take a long view given the small deal size and shares' limited liquidity.

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

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