New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ATM expects it to be incrementally beneficial: ATM has received confirmation to sell and distribute a2 Platinum Stage 1 and 2 IF product as part of the enforcement discretion</li><li>Valuation benefit: Assuming approval can be granted medium-term which is still to be confirmed</li><li>State of the market now – product shortage is largely over</li></ul>

ATM expects it to be incrementally beneficial: ATM has received confirmation to sell and distribute a2 Platinum Stage 1 and 2 IF product as part of the enforcement discretionValuation benefit: Assuming approval can be granted medium-term which is still to be confirmedState of the market now – product shortage is largely over

The A2 Milk Company: US FDA Clearance – The American Dream?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.</li>
<li>Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).</li>
<li>There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they <em>are</em> in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.</li>
</ul>


Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.
Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they are in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.


MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

<ul><li>The a2 Milk Company (ATM) reported a solid FY22 result, modestly ahead of our and consensus expectations, highlighting ongoing solid execution against a difficult backdrop</li><li>FY23 outlook commentary for high single digit revenue growth and a modest improvement in EBITDA margins implies minimal consensus changes</li><li>We estimate the stock price is now fully reflecting ATM's medium-term management scenario which is not without risk</li></ul>

The a2 Milk Company (ATM) reported a solid FY22 result, modestly ahead of our and consensus expectations, highlighting ongoing solid execution against a difficult backdropFY23 outlook commentary for high single digit revenue growth and a modest improvement in EBITDA margins implies minimal consensus changesWe estimate the stock price is now fully reflecting ATM's medium-term management scenario which is not without risk

The A2 Milk Company: FY22 Result — Baby Steps

<ul><li>The a2 Milk Company (ATM) reported a solid FY22 result with EBITDA of NZ$196.2m and NPAT of NZ$122.6m</li><li>The result was slightly ahead of our and consensus expectations driven by slightly higher revenue</li><li>Based off the commentary we assume very little changes to consensus with consensus currently assuming +8% revenue growth and +130bps margin improvement</li></ul>

The a2 Milk Company (ATM) reported a solid FY22 result with EBITDA of NZ$196.2m and NPAT of NZ$122.6mThe result was slightly ahead of our and consensus expectations driven by slightly higher revenueBased off the commentary we assume very little changes to consensus with consensus currently assuming +8% revenue growth and +130bps margin improvement

The A2 Milk Company (ATM): FY22 Result – Initial Impressions

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see global equities as being in pullback mode, with the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) already testing important support in the $86-87 range, highlighted last week.</li>
<li>A bounce here would be ideal for the bullish case, but we could easily see a test of the YTD lows near $81.50 if $86 fails to hold.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX/Nikkei225/TOPIX Small remain bullish, as does India's SENSEX -- add exposure. Seeing some failed breakouts in Europe, notably the EURO STOXX 50 and STOXX Europe 600; a concerning development.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see global equities as being in pullback mode, with the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) already testing important support in the $86-87 range, highlighted last week.
A bounce here would be ideal for the bullish case, but we could easily see a test of the YTD lows near $81.50 if $86 fails to hold.
Japan's TOPIX/Nikkei225/TOPIX Small remain bullish, as does India's SENSEX -- add exposure. Seeing some failed breakouts in Europe, notably the EURO STOXX 50 and STOXX Europe 600; a concerning development.


Pullback Continues; Japan & India Remain Attractive

Australia

a2 Milk Company Limited produces cow milk which is free of a protein called beta casein A1.  The Company 
offers its products in Australia and New Zealand.

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A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU)

The A2 Milk Company: US FDA Clearance – The American Dream?

This morning the FDA has reported The a2 Milk Company (ATM) has finally been granted approval to sell Infant Formula (IF) into the US; ATM’s...

Forsyth Barr

MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

Bounce potential given $ACWX $EFA testing downtrend channel supports, but it would likely be a short-term trading opportunity due to the fact that...

Vermilion Research

The A2 Milk Company: FY22 Result — Baby Steps

The a2 Milk Company (ATM) reported a solid FY22 result, modestly ahead of our and consensus expectations, highlighting ongoing solid execution...

Forsyth Barr

The A2 Milk Company (ATM): FY22 Result – Initial Impressions

The a2 Milk Company (ATM) reported a solid FY22 result with EBITDA of NZ$196.2m and NPAT of NZ$122.6m and the result was slightly ahead of our and...

Forsyth Barr

Pullback Continues; Japan & India Remain Attractive

Stick with Japan & India. $ACWI bounce at $86 would be ideal for the bullish case (i.e., establishing a higher low), but we could easily see a test...

Vermilion Research

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