New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The a2 Milk Company (ATM) is changing its stripes. It has well-publicised strategic intentions to vertically integrate its supply chain, be it through M&amp;A, organic investment at Mataura Valley Milk (MVM), or JVs/alliances. It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when.</li><li>Our detailed scenario analysis assesses how ATM would evolve should it purchase Synlait Milk's (SML) Dunsandel asset.</li><li>We acknowledge this isn't necessarily likely but we think it would prove to be an attractive asset for ATM, helping to reduce supply chain risks (mainly regulatory), capture manufacturing margin (albeit we don't think group margins will notably improve), and drive EPS growth ahead of current consensus forecasts.</li></ul>

The a2 Milk Company (ATM) is changing its stripes. It has well-publicised strategic intentions to vertically integrate its supply chain, be it through M&amp;A, organic investment at Mataura Valley Milk (MVM), or JVs/alliances. It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when.Our detailed scenario analysis assesses how ATM would evolve should it purchase Synlait Milk's (SML) Dunsandel asset.We acknowledge this isn't necessarily likely but we think it would prove to be an attractive asset for ATM, helping to reduce supply chain risks (mainly regulatory), capture manufacturing margin (albeit we don't think group margins will notably improve), and drive EPS growth ahead of current consensus forecasts.

The A2 Milk Company -What if ATM Purchased SML Dunsandel?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 8th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD25.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in National Australia Bank, Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Macquarie, Aristocrat Leisure, Evolution Mining.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 8th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD25.2bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in National Australia Bank, Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Macquarie, Aristocrat Leisure, Evolution Mining.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 8th): National Australia Bank, Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Macquarie

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.</li>
<li>Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.</li>
<li>Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)</li>
</ul>


We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.
Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)


Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Fonterra Shareholders Fund / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Fonterra Shareholders Fund's dividend yield was 14.2% in 2023. Its dividend yield averaged 8.7% in the past three years. </li>
<li>Fonterra Co-Operative Group, is a New Zealand based multinational dairy cooperative. Outside investors who are not allowed to hold shares in Fonterra Co-Operative Group can invest in Fonterra Shareholders Fund. </li>
<li>In May 2024, Fonterra announced that it plans to sell off its consumer products businesses and concentrate on business to business sales as a dairy ingredients supplier.</li>
</ul>


Fonterra Shareholders Fund's dividend yield was 14.2% in 2023. Its dividend yield averaged 8.7% in the past three years. 
Fonterra Co-Operative Group, is a New Zealand based multinational dairy cooperative. Outside investors who are not allowed to hold shares in Fonterra Co-Operative Group can invest in Fonterra Shareholders Fund. 
In May 2024, Fonterra announced that it plans to sell off its consumer products businesses and concentrate on business to business sales as a dairy ingredients supplier.


Asian Dividend Gems: Fonterra Shareholders Fund

<ul><li>Synlait Milk's (SML) wide ranging market update had a disappointing tone.</li><li>While details were provided on the ongoing supply exclusivity arbitration process with The a2 Milk Company (ATM) and potential pricing renegotiations, the key takeaway is SML’s balance sheet challenges persist.</li><li>A sale of Dairyworks ‘cannot at this time be assured’ and debt levels ‘remain elevated’, not helped by subdued profitability, with 1H24 NPAT expected to be down on 1H23. </li></ul>

Synlait Milk's (SML) wide ranging market update had a disappointing tone.While details were provided on the ongoing supply exclusivity arbitration process with The a2 Milk Company (ATM) and potential pricing renegotiations, the key takeaway is SML’s balance sheet challenges persist.A sale of Dairyworks ‘cannot at this time be assured’ and debt levels ‘remain elevated’, not helped by subdued profitability, with 1H24 NPAT expected to be down on 1H23. 

Australia

a2 Milk Company Limited produces cow milk which is free of a protein called beta casein A1.  The Company 
offers its products in Australia and New Zealand.

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A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU)

The A2 Milk Company -What if ATM Purchased SML Dunsandel?

The a2 Milk Company (ATM) is changing its stripes. It has well-publicised strategic intentions to vertically integrate its supply chain

Forsyth Barr

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 8th): National Australia Bank, Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Macquarie

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in National Australia Bank, Sigma Pharmaceuticals,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

Asian Dividend Gems: Fonterra Shareholders Fund

Fonterra Shareholders Fund provides high dividend yield. Fonterra is the number one dairy producer in New Zealand. Its plans to divest Consumer...

Douglas Kim

Synlait Milk - Christmas Grinch (Again)

Synlait Milk's (SML) wide ranging market update had a disappointing tone. While details were provided on the ongoing supply exclusivity...

Forsyth Barr

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