Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Huawei's new Mate 60 Pro phone has made many wonder if it has worked around U.S. technology restrictions to produce a 5G-capable chip domestically.</li>
<li>Nvidia hits new all-time highs... Taiwan AI-supply chain stocks are surging again.</li>
<li>Dell will report earnings -- Look for PC upgrade cycle color and AI PC comments. SEMICON Taiwan is coming soon, we will attend.</li>
</ul>


Huawei's new Mate 60 Pro phone has made many wonder if it has worked around U.S. technology restrictions to produce a 5G-capable chip domestically.
Nvidia hits new all-time highs... Taiwan AI-supply chain stocks are surging again.
Dell will report earnings -- Look for PC upgrade cycle color and AI PC comments. SEMICON Taiwan is coming soon, we will attend.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: New Huawei Phone Works Around U.S. Restrictions?; Taiwan AI Stocks Surging Again

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul>
<li>TSMC reported earnings. They beat Q2 estimates, but importantly they guided down Q3 and FY 2023 estimates.</li>
<li>The Q2 beat was widely expected regarding revenue, given that TSMC reports monthly revenue, but the Q3 guide was not.</li>
<li>The midpoint of the guidance has the year-over-year decline decelerating, which I didn’t expect. Moreover, the -10% annual guide throws some water on the second-half recovery. Yes, the second half will be higher than the first, but the recovery is much more muted than historical. And what’s more, margins are looking worse for N3 than a typical node.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reported earnings. They beat Q2 estimates, but importantly they guided down Q3 and FY 2023 estimates.
The Q2 beat was widely expected regarding revenue, given that TSMC reports monthly revenue, but the Q3 guide was not.
The midpoint of the guidance has the year-over-year decline decelerating, which I didn’t expect. Moreover, the -10% annual guide throws some water on the second-half recovery. Yes, the second half will be higher than the first, but the recovery is much more muted than historical. And what’s more, margins are looking worse for N3 than a typical node.


TSMC Sees Continued Weakness, and EUV's Quandary (ASML)

<ul>
<li>Nvidia's CEO is in Taiwan this week for Computex and the company continues to dominate the headlines announcing Mediatek, Softbank, and WPP key partnerships.</li>
<li>Semiconductor shorts have been squeezed after the global rally sparked by Nvidia's monster results; We released our latest Taiwan Shorts Monitor to identify short squeezes.</li>
<li>Earnings: Light this week for Taiwan, however PC industry leaders Hewlett Packard Co (HPQ US) and Dell Technologies Inc (DELL US) will report.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia's CEO is in Taiwan this week for Computex and the company continues to dominate the headlines announcing Mediatek, Softbank, and WPP key partnerships.
Semiconductor shorts have been squeezed after the global rally sparked by Nvidia's monster results; We released our latest Taiwan Shorts Monitor to identify short squeezes.
Earnings: Light this week for Taiwan, however PC industry leaders Hewlett Packard Co (HPQ US) and Dell Technologies Inc (DELL US) will report.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia in Taiwan - Everyone Will Need 'AI Factories'; Identifying Short Squeezes

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC and UMC reported large increase in Oct sales: +25%  and +13% MoM. Impressive, but within the big trends: TSMC high growth plateau. UMC slow recovery period.</li>
<li>Semiconductor global sales growth is accelerating slightly: up 19% YoY over the previous 6 months and +23% YoY in Sept. Reflecting both sustained AI growth and a mass-markets bottoming out.</li>
<li>TSMC: valuations are high, not extreme, the stock is not breaking the NT$1,100 barrier. UMC at average valuations, at the bottom of its NT$45-55 trading range, maybe a short-term trade.</li>
</ul>


TSMC and UMC reported large increase in Oct sales: +25%  and +13% MoM. Impressive, but within the big trends: TSMC high growth plateau. UMC slow recovery period.
Semiconductor global sales growth is accelerating slightly: up 19% YoY over the previous 6 months and +23% YoY in Sept. Reflecting both sustained AI growth and a mass-markets bottoming out.
TSMC: valuations are high, not extreme, the stock is not breaking the NT$1,100 barrier. UMC at average valuations, at the bottom of its NT$45-55 trading range, maybe a short-term trade.


TSMC, UMC, Global Semi Monthly Sales: Small Acceleration

<ul>
<li>Companies exude confidence and unanimously explain that AI is the fastest growing revenue segment ever.  AI leads to revenue growth, increase in volume, higher pricing, higher engagement. </li>
<li>Companies also explain that AI today only reflects a small part of long-term planning. AI is a decade long transformation of how we work, search for information or buy products.  </li>
<li>Meta and Microsoft see equipment delays and are capacity constrained in 2024. Capex will increase in 2025. </li>
</ul>


Companies exude confidence and unanimously explain that AI is the fastest growing revenue segment ever.  AI leads to revenue growth, increase in volume, higher pricing, higher engagement. 
Companies also explain that AI today only reflects a small part of long-term planning. AI is a decade long transformation of how we work, search for information or buy products.  
Meta and Microsoft see equipment delays and are capacity constrained in 2024. Capex will increase in 2025. 


Google, Meta, Microsoft: What Did They Say About AI, Capex and Revenues?

United States

Broadcom Inc. designs, develops, and supplies semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The Company offers storage adapters, controllers, networking processors, motion control encoders, and optical sensors, as well as infrastructure and security software to modernize, optimize, and secure the most complex hybrid environments. Broadcom serves customers worldwide.

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Broadcom (AVGO US)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: New Huawei Phone Works Around U.S. Restrictions?; Taiwan AI Stocks Surging Again

Dell will report earnings -- Look for PC upgrade cycle color and AI PC comments. SEMICON Taiwan is coming soon, we will attend.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC Sees Continued Weakness, and EUV's Quandary (ASML)

TSMC sees further inventory correction, I see earnings disappointments. ASML has a quandary if the entire ecosystem is trying to use EUV.

Fabricated Knowledge

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia in Taiwan - Everyone Will Need 'AI Factories'; Identifying Short Squeezes

Nvidia's CEO is in Taiwan this week for Computex and the company continues to dominate the headlines announcing Mediatek, Softbank, and WPP key...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC, UMC, Global Semi Monthly Sales: Small Acceleration

TSMC and UMC report strong Oct sales growth, but remain on their bigger trends: TSMC on a high growth plateau, UMC in a slow recovery period.

Nicolas Baratte

Google, Meta, Microsoft: What Did They Say About AI, Capex and Revenues?

Is AI really increasing revenues, profitability? There is still considerable doubt within the investors community on the "reality" of AI, or its...

Nicolas Baratte

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Taiwan Tech Weekly: New Huawei Phone Works Around U.S. Restrictions?; Taiwan AI Stocks Surging Again

Dell will report earnings -- Look for PC upgrade cycle color and AI PC comments. SEMICON Taiwan is coming soon, we will attend.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC Sees Continued Weakness, and EUV's Quandary (ASML)

TSMC sees further inventory correction, I see earnings disappointments. ASML has a quandary if the entire ecosystem is trying to use EUV.

Fabricated Knowledge

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia in Taiwan - Everyone Will Need 'AI Factories'; Identifying Short Squeezes

Nvidia's CEO is in Taiwan this week for Computex and the company continues to dominate the headlines announcing Mediatek, Softbank, and WPP key...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC, UMC, Global Semi Monthly Sales: Small Acceleration

​TSMC and UMC report strong Oct sales growth, but remain on their bigger trends: TSMC on a high growth plateau, UMC in a slow recovery period.

Nicolas Baratte

Google, Meta, Microsoft: What Did They Say About AI, Capex and Revenues?

Is AI really increasing revenues, profitability? There is still considerable doubt within the investors community on the "reality" of AI, or its...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC and UMC report strong Oct sales growth, but remain on their bigger trends: TSMC on a high growth plateau, UMC in a slow recovery period.