Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index will be implemented on 15 September. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$9.7bn.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$595m. The stocks are extremely liquid, the impact on the stock in terms of ADV to trade is small.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index will be implemented on 15 September. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.
The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$9.7bn.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$595m. The stocks are extremely liquid, the impact on the stock in terms of ADV to trade is small.


MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Upweight for TSMC

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> aims to raisebetween US$4.5-4.9bn via selling some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings</a>' US IPO.</li>
<li>ARM develops and licences high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about valuation.</li>
</ul>



Softbank Group (9984 JP) aims to raisebetween US$4.5-4.9bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings' US IPO.
ARM develops and licences high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.
In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about valuation.


ARM Holdings IPO - Thoughts on Valuation - Still Very Demanding

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> aims to raise around US$8-10bn via selling some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings</a>' US IPO.</li>
<li>ARM develops and licences high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.</li>
<li>In our earlier note, we looked at Arm’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



Softbank Group (9984 JP) aims to raise around US$8-10bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings' US IPO.
ARM develops and licences high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.
In our earlier note, we looked at Arm’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we talk about valuations.


ARM Holdings Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuations

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> aims to raise around US$8-10bn via selling some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings</a>’ US IPO.</li>
<li>ARM develops and licences high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.</li>
<li>In our earlier note, we looked at Arm’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.</li>
</ul>



Softbank Group (9984 JP) aims to raise around US$8-10bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings’ US IPO.
ARM develops and licences high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.
In our earlier note, we looked at Arm’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.


ARM Holdings Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - The Smallest and One of the Slowest

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Major global semi fabless/IDM companies (AMD/Intel/Qualcomm/TI/Infineon/ STM/MTK/OnSemi) reported in-line 2Q23 but mixed 3Q23 outlook on diversified exposure on AI applications, slower consumer electronics demand recovery, continued inventory digestion and margin pressure.</li><li>Overall, inventory digestion is below expectation in 2Q23, leading to rising DOI for most fabless players.</li><li>Demand recovery is expected to remain weak in 2H23E with planned production cut for most companies especially for those with limited exposure to AI.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Major global semi fabless/IDM companies (AMD/Intel/Qualcomm/TI/Infineon/ STM/MTK/OnSemi) reported in-line 2Q23 but mixed 3Q23 outlook on diversified exposure on AI applications, slower consumer electronics demand recovery, continued inventory digestion and margin pressure.Overall, inventory digestion is below expectation in 2Q23, leading to rising DOI for most fabless players.Demand recovery is expected to remain weak in 2H23E with planned production cut for most companies especially for those with limited exposure to AI.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Technology – Global Fabless/IDM 2Q23 Wrap

United States

Broadcom Inc. designs, develops, and supplies semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The Company offers storage adapters, controllers, networking processors, motion control encoders, and optical sensors, as well as infrastructure and security software to modernize, optimize, and secure the most complex hybrid environments. Broadcom serves customers worldwide.

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Broadcom (AVGO US)

MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Upweight for TSMC

No constituent changes, but there are float/capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 5.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$595m. Stocks are...

Brian Freitas

ARM Holdings IPO - Thoughts on Valuation - Still Very Demanding

Softbank Group (9984 JP) aims to raisebetween US$4.5-4.9bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings' US IPO. In this note, we provide our...

Sumeet Singh

ARM Holdings Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuations

Softbank Group (9984 JP) aims to raise around US$8-10bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings' US IPO. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Sumeet Singh

ARM Holdings Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - The Smallest and One of the Slowest

Softbank Group (9984 JP) aims to raise around US$8-10bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings’ US IPO. In this note, we undetake a peer...

Sumeet Singh

China Technology – Global Fabless/IDM 2Q23 Wrap

Demand recovery is expected to remain weak in 2H23E with planned production cut for most companies especially for those with limited exposure to AI.

CMB International

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