Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3Q24 guidance: Shipment: up 9-11% due to higher customer demand. ASP: down 0-2% QoQ. GM: 28-30%, up 3ppts QoQ.</li>
<li>Pricing hit bottom in 2Q24. Anticipates UTR in 2025 returning to 70-80%.</li>
<li>Effective tax rate for 2H24 is expected to be 20%.</li>
</ul>


3Q24 guidance: Shipment: up 9-11% due to higher customer demand. ASP: down 0-2% QoQ. GM: 28-30%, up 3ppts QoQ.
Pricing hit bottom in 2Q24. Anticipates UTR in 2025 returning to 70-80%.
Effective tax rate for 2H24 is expected to be 20%.


Vanguard (5347.TT): Pricing Hit Bottom in 2Q24. Anticipates UTR in 2025 Returning to 70-80%.

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This is going to be a big week, so I’ll be as brief as I can while getting everything in one place.</li>
<li>Let’s start with Automotive, which is my favorite idea set right now. The problem is that the near-term results were much weaker than I expected, and it looks like the bottom is maybe in.</li>
<li>I was expecting another quarter of scrapping along the bottom, and Industrial weakness punched a new low.</li>
</ul>


This is going to be a big week, so I’ll be as brief as I can while getting everything in one place.
Let’s start with Automotive, which is my favorite idea set right now. The problem is that the near-term results were much weaker than I expected, and it looks like the bottom is maybe in.
I was expecting another quarter of scrapping along the bottom, and Industrial weakness punched a new low.


Earnings: NXPI, CDNS, TXN, SLAB, Alphawave, TSEM, KLAC, SK Hynix, MXL, STM, ASMI, VRT, UCTT

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Stocks Fall On Potential New U.S. Tech Restrictions for China &amp; Potential Policy Shift from a Trump White House... Strong TSMC &amp; ASML Results Fail to Rally the Sector</li>
<li>Even Tighter Technology Restrictions for China?  -- US Could Use Special Rule to Restrict Selling of Products Made by Foreign Companies</li>
<li>We See TSMC's Margins Increasing Much Higher Than Guidance in Long-Term; 2Q24 Shows Apple Ramping Up </li>
</ul>


Taiwan Stocks Fall On Potential New U.S. Tech Restrictions for China &amp; Potential Policy Shift from a Trump White House... Strong TSMC &amp; ASML Results Fail to Rally the Sector
Even Tighter Technology Restrictions for China?  -- US Could Use Special Rule to Restrict Selling of Products Made by Foreign Companies
We See TSMC's Margins Increasing Much Higher Than Guidance in Long-Term; 2Q24 Shows Apple Ramping Up 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Strong TSMC & ASML Data Fails to Rally the Semiconductor Sector

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth</li>
<li>Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.</li>
<li>Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend</li>
</ul>


We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth
Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.
Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend


Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

<ul>
<li>Vanguard announce the establishment of a 12” Fab in Singapore with 60% stake, with Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI US) will invest remaining 40%.  </li>
<li>The nodes produced will span from 40nm to 130nm, encompassing mixed-signal, PMIC, and analog ICs to support automotive, industrial, consumer, and mobile applications.  </li>
<li>Vanguard will uphold a healthy cash balance, along with large debt and a follow-up cash offering.</li>
</ul>


Vanguard announce the establishment of a 12” Fab in Singapore with 60% stake, with Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI US) will invest remaining 40%.  
The nodes produced will span from 40nm to 130nm, encompassing mixed-signal, PMIC, and analog ICs to support automotive, industrial, consumer, and mobile applications.  
Vanguard will uphold a healthy cash balance, along with large debt and a follow-up cash offering.


Vanguard (5347.TT): Setup 12" Fab in Singapore With 60% Stake, with NXP Investing Remaining 40%.

Netherlands

NXP Semiconductors NV operates as a global semiconductor company. The Company designs semiconductors and software for mobile communications, consumer electronics, security applications, in-car entertainment, and networking.  NXP offers its products to the automotive, identification, wireless infrastructure, lighting, mobile, and computing applications.

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Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI US)

Vanguard (5347.TT): Pricing Hit Bottom in 2Q24. Anticipates UTR in 2025 Returning to 70-80%.

3Q24 guidance shows increased shipments due to higher demand GM expected to rise 3ppts QoQ. Anticipates pricing to improve in 2025. Effective tax...

Patrick Liao

Earnings: NXPI, CDNS, TXN, SLAB, Alphawave, TSEM, KLAC, SK Hynix, MXL, STM, ASMI, VRT, UCTT

This is going to be a big week, so I’ll be as brief as I can while getting everything in one place. Let’s start with Automotive, which is my...

Fabricated Knowledge

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Strong TSMC & ASML Data Fails to Rally the Semiconductor Sector

Taiwan stocks dropped last week as potential new US tech restrictions for China loom, despite strong TSMC and ASML results. Apple ramping up...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Vanguard (5347.TT): Setup 12" Fab in Singapore With 60% Stake, with NXP Investing Remaining 40%.

Vanguard and Nxp Semiconductors to establish 12" Fab in Singapore for diverse IC production, with Vanguard maintaining majority stake.

Patrick Liao

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Vanguard (5347.TT): Pricing Hit Bottom in 2Q24. Anticipates UTR in 2025 Returning to 70-80%.

​3Q24 guidance shows increased shipments due to higher demand GM expected to rise 3ppts QoQ. Anticipates pricing to improve in 2025. Effective tax...

Patrick Liao

Earnings: NXPI, CDNS, TXN, SLAB, Alphawave, TSEM, KLAC, SK Hynix, MXL, STM, ASMI, VRT, UCTT

This is going to be a big week, so I’ll be as brief as I can while getting everything in one place. Let’s start with Automotive, which is my...

Fabricated Knowledge

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Strong TSMC & ASML Data Fails to Rally the Semiconductor Sector

​Taiwan stocks dropped last week as potential new US tech restrictions for China loom, despite strong TSMC and ASML results. Apple ramping up...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Vanguard (5347.TT): Setup 12" Fab in Singapore With 60% Stake, with NXP Investing Remaining 40%.

​Vanguard and Nxp Semiconductors to establish 12" Fab in Singapore for diverse IC production, with Vanguard maintaining majority stake.

Patrick Liao

3Q24 guidance shows increased shipments due to higher demand GM expected to rise 3ppts QoQ. Anticipates pricing to improve in 2025. Effective tax...

Taiwan stocks dropped last week as potential new US tech restrictions for China loom, despite strong TSMC and ASML results. Apple ramping up...

Vanguard and Nxp Semiconductors to establish 12" Fab in Singapore for diverse IC production, with Vanguard maintaining majority stake.