Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics continue to deteriorate and there are plenty of reasons to be concerned, which we outline below.</li>
<li>With that said, the bottom line is that the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208 support and the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $135 support.</li>
<li>As long as these supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead, but we would turn bearish on breakdowns.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics continue to deteriorate and there are plenty of reasons to be concerned, which we outline below.
With that said, the bottom line is that the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208 support and the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $135 support.
As long as these supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead, but we would turn bearish on breakdowns.


Supports Holding Despite Concerning Developments; Semis & Home Improvement Retailers Attractive

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics have mildly deteriorated in recent weeks on concerns over less accommodative monetary policy and the Omicron variant.</li>
<li>Despite recent deterioration, critical supports are holding on the broad global indexes, and our global outlook remains neutral as we continue to expect more consolidation and mixed markets.</li>
<li>Growth continues to outperform relative to value. Actionable Themes: Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics have mildly deteriorated in recent weeks on concerns over less accommodative monetary policy and the Omicron variant.
Despite recent deterioration, critical supports are holding on the broad global indexes, and our global outlook remains neutral as we continue to expect more consolidation and mixed markets.
Growth continues to outperform relative to value. Actionable Themes: Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary.


Add To Growth On This Pullback; Actionable Themes: Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>October semiconductor revenues have been released setting a new record</li>
<li>The semiconductor market, whose revenues have been following a trend since 1996, are currently well above that trend</li>
<li>The ingredients for a collapse are not developing.  The current trend seems destined to continue for at least another couple of quarters, but probably longer.</li>
</ul>


October semiconductor revenues have been released setting a new record
The semiconductor market, whose revenues have been following a trend since 1996, are currently well above that trend
The ingredients for a collapse are not developing.  The current trend seems destined to continue for at least another couple of quarters, but probably longer.


October Semi Revenues Released: Even Farther Above Trend

<ul>
<li>WSTS released a forecast for 26% growth in 2021 and 9% in 2022 </li>
<li>Prior WSTS forecasts have been overheated in up years and too modest in down years</li>
<li>If today's demand bubble continues, sub-10% 2022 growth is likely.  Otherwise, there could be a collapse.</li>
</ul>


WSTS released a forecast for 26% growth in 2021 and 9% in 2022 
Prior WSTS forecasts have been overheated in up years and too modest in down years
If today's demand bubble continues, sub-10% 2022 growth is likely.  Otherwise, there could be a collapse.


WSTS Semi Forecast Very Bullish for 2021-22, but Is It Realistic?

<p>The September semiconductor revenues are in, bringing the third quarter to a close.  Both the month and the quarter reached all-time highs.  Although today's boom shows no sign of ending, there is ample precedent to tell us what will occur once supply catches up with demand.  This Insight explores the current market and the likely outcome.</p>

The September semiconductor revenues are in, bringing the third quarter to a close.  Both the month and the quarter reached all-time highs.  Although today's boom shows no sign of ending, there is ample precedent to tell us what will occur once supply catches up with demand.  This Insight explores the current market and the likely outcome.

Netherlands

NXP Semiconductors NV operates as a global semiconductor company. The Company designs semiconductors and software for mobile communications, consumer electronics, security applications, in-car entertainment, and networking.  NXP offers its products to the automotive, identification, wireless infrastructure, lighting, mobile, and computing applications.

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Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI US)

Supports Holding Despite Concerning Developments; Semis & Home Improvement Retailers Attractive

Market dynamics continue to deteriorate and there are plenty of reasons to be concerned. However, the bottom line is that Russell 2000 (IWM) is...

Vermilion Research

Add To Growth On This Pullback; Actionable Themes: Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary

Growth continues to outperform relative to value, shown by the intact uptrend on the MSCI ACWI ex-US Growth vs. Value ratio. We highlight...

Vermilion Research

October Semi Revenues Released: Even Farther Above Trend

October semiconductor revenues set a record once again, making the 2021 semiconductor market one to remember. A collapse appears unlikely in the...

Jim Handy

WSTS Semi Forecast Very Bullish for 2021-22, but Is It Realistic?

The semiconductor market is on a tear, and WSTS forecasts that next year will see solid growth. This Insight examines the likelihood that 2022...

Jim Handy

Semiconductors Continue Full Speed Ahead

Again chip sales have reached record highs. How long will this last? What will happen when it ends? This Insight dips into that to provide some...

Jim Handy

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