Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our long-term bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. With that said, we believe a 1-3-month pullback has likely begun.</li>
<li>Supports to watch are at $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41-42 on MSCI EM (EEM-US), and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is violating its 20-day MA, Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking below 4884, and Japan's TOPIX appears to be staging a false breakout at the 2800-2815 level</li>
</ul>


Our long-term bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. With that said, we believe a 1-3-month pullback has likely begun.
Supports to watch are at $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41-42 on MSCI EM (EEM-US), and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
The S&amp;P 500 is violating its 20-day MA, Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking below 4884, and Japan's TOPIX appears to be staging a false breakout at the 2800-2815 level


Pullback Underway; Getting Defensive; Long-Term RS Bottoms for Defensives Is a Reason for Caution

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Motilal Oswal's research report onSun Pharma In this note, we explored the specialty pipeline of SUNP, examining products under development, the commercialized portfolio, and the competitive dynamics within each segment.</li><li>The overall R&amp;D expenditure is expected to increase by 33% YoY in FY24 and maintain an 18% CAGR over FY24-26 to support clinical development of certain assets.</li><li>Despite some delays in the clinical trial processes of Ilumya (additional indication), MM-II, and GL0034, the innovative/discovery pipeline continues to be the most promising within the India listed space.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Motilal Oswal's research report onSun Pharma In this note, we explored the specialty pipeline of SUNP, examining products under development, the commercialized portfolio, and the competitive dynamics within each segment.The overall R&amp;D expenditure is expected to increase by 33% YoY in FY24 and maintain an 18% CAGR over FY24-26 to support clinical development of certain assets.Despite some delays in the clinical trial processes of Ilumya (additional indication), MM-II, and GL0034, the innovative/discovery pipeline continues to be the most promising within the India listed space.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Sun Pharma - ‘Specialty’ Way of Driving Growth Prospects

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Sun Pharma (SUNP) owns ~78.5% of Taro Pharma (represented 10% of SUNP’s revenues/3% of EBITDA in FY23)</li><li>Taro posted strong sales growth of 13% YoY to USD 157 mn (+6% QoQ), led by new launches with a sharp improvement in adjusted EBITDA to USD 24 mn (up 180% YoY) and margin of 15.4% (vs 6.2% YoY), led by sales growth, improved gross margin (+482 bps YoY) and decreased operating costs</li><li>The consistent improvement in Taro’s performance in the last two quarters is positive, given Taro was facing growth and operational challenges due to increased competition (leading to price erosion) in its key products in the last 7-8 quarters</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Sun Pharma (SUNP) owns ~78.5% of Taro Pharma (represented 10% of SUNP’s revenues/3% of EBITDA in FY23)Taro posted strong sales growth of 13% YoY to USD 157 mn (+6% QoQ), led by new launches with a sharp improvement in adjusted EBITDA to USD 24 mn (up 180% YoY) and margin of 15.4% (vs 6.2% YoY), led by sales growth, improved gross margin (+482 bps YoY) and decreased operating costsThe consistent improvement in Taro’s performance in the last two quarters is positive, given Taro was facing growth and operational challenges due to increased competition (leading to price erosion) in its key products in the last 7-8 quartersContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries: SUNP’s Subsidiary Taro Posts Strong Performance.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We have screened for APAC (ex-China) healthcare companies using their respective Smart Score, a compound score for a company indicating its overall outlook based on key factors.</li>
<li>Smart Score screens the stock based on five major components including value, dividends, growth, resilience, and momentum. It also provides a cumulative score, which puts equal weightage on each parameter.  </li>
<li>Parameters used to screen the stocks: market cap≥ $800M and smart score≥ 3.5. We have seen stocks having high smart score has strong growth prospects and qualify for investment proposition.</li>
</ul>


We have screened for APAC (ex-China) healthcare companies using their respective Smart Score, a compound score for a company indicating its overall outlook based on key factors.
Smart Score screens the stock based on five major components including value, dividends, growth, resilience, and momentum. It also provides a cumulative score, which puts equal weightage on each parameter.  
Parameters used to screen the stocks: market cap≥ $800M and smart score≥ 3.5. We have seen stocks having high smart score has strong growth prospects and qualify for investment proposition.


Top APAC (Ex-China) Investment Worthy Healthcare Companies Using Smartkarma’s Smart Score Screener

India

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited manufactures and markets pharmaceuticals for domestic and international distribution. The Company's pharmaceutical portfolio includes drugs in the areas of diabetes, cardiology, neurology, psychiatry and  gastroenterology.

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Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (SUNP IN)

Pullback Underway; Getting Defensive; Long-Term RS Bottoms for Defensives Is a Reason for Caution

Pullback Underway $ACWI $SPX; Getting Defensive; Long-Term RS Bottoms for Defensive Sectors is a Reason for Caution. Buys in Health Care,...

Vermilion Research

Sun Pharma - ‘Specialty’ Way of Driving Growth Prospects

The overall R&D expenditure is expected to increase by 33% YoY in FY24 and maintain an 18% CAGR over FY24-26 to support clinical development of...

Motilal Oswal

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries: SUNP’s Subsidiary Taro Posts Strong Performance.

Taro posted strong sales growth of 13% YoY to USD 157 mn (+6% QoQ), led by new launches with a sharp improvement in adjusted EBITDA to USD 24 mn

HDFC Securities

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Top APAC (Ex-China) Investment Worthy Healthcare Companies Using Smartkarma’s Smart Score Screener

We have screened APAC (ex-China) healthcare companies with market cap≥$800M using Smartkarma’s Smart Score and picked up 2 investable ideas by...

Tina Banerjee

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