Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

The much-anticipated acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a> of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">Arm</a> from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank</a> was formally <a href="https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-to-acquire-arm-for-40-billion-creating-worlds-premier-computing-company-for-the-age-of-ai" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> on Monday. The transaction is valued at $40 billion, an approximately equal combination of cash and NVIDIA stock.On the surface the deal looks strategically solid from NVIDIA's perspective. It places the company at the center of Arm's one hundred and eighty billion connected device ecosystem. Perhaps even more importantly, it opens up the possibility of an outright assault on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel's</a> data center dominance by adding Arm-based server processors to complement NVIDIA's existing lineup of GPUs and interconnect.Underneath the surface however, this deal is fraught with issues and risks. While Arm has been a very successful company, their growth is flatlining as smartphone sales stagnate. Furthermore, we see the rise of RISC-V as a very real threat to Arm's business model in the coming years. Arm has never competed with its customers. Under NVIDIA ownership, this will be virtually impossible to avoid.From a regulatory perspective, Arm IP moving under american ownership will raise the very real prospect that this technology will become a future weapon in the US-China trade and technology wars. In today's environment, it's difficult to see why China would agree to facilitate that possibility.All in all we think this deal is not as good as it seems on the surface and that it will be practically impossible to get through the regulatory approval process.

The much-anticipated acquisition by NVIDIA of Arm from Softbank was formally announced on Monday. The transaction is valued at $40 billion, an approximately equal combination of cash and NVIDIA stock.On the surface the deal looks strategically solid from NVIDIA's perspective. It places the company at the center of Arm's one hundred and eighty billion connected device ecosystem. Perhaps even more importantly, it opens up the possibility of an outright assault on Intel's data center dominance by adding Arm-based server processors to complement NVIDIA's existing lineup of GPUs and interconnect.Underneath the surface however, this deal is fraught with issues and risks. While Arm has been a very successful company, their growth is flatlining as smartphone sales stagnate. Furthermore, we see the rise of RISC-V as a very real threat to Arm's business model in the coming years. Arm has never competed with its customers. Under NVIDIA ownership, this will be virtually impossible to avoid.From a regulatory perspective, Arm IP moving under american ownership will raise the very real prospect that this technology will become a future weapon in the US-China trade and technology wars. In today's environment, it's difficult to see why China would agree to facilitate that possibility.All in all we think this deal is not as good as it seems on the surface and that it will be practically impossible to get through the regulatory approval process. 

NVIDIA+Arm. Strategically Solid But Practically Impossible.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused profound business shifts, resulting in near ruin for some sectors while strengthening others.  This Smartkarma Insight explores this phenomenon and shows how it relates to semiconductors.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused profound business shifts, resulting in near ruin for some sectors while strengthening others.  This Smartkarma Insight explores this phenomenon and shows how it relates to semiconductors.

Recent announcements have indicated that the semiconductor market is migrating from a period of strength from an inventory build-up to softer demand stemming from digestion of that inventory.  This Insight examines that trend and its impact on stock prices.

Recent announcements have indicated that the semiconductor market is migrating from a period of strength from an inventory build-up to softer demand stemming from digestion of that inventory.  This Insight examines that trend and its impact on stock prices.

Semis Moving from Inventory Build to Inventory Digestion

WSTS has released its June semiconductor revenue figures, revealing a month-month revenue decline of 0.3% from May.While this indicates that the industry's sensitivity to the COVID-19 pandemic is mild, close inspection reveals that May revenues have been re-stated, and this has muted the decline.  This Smartkarma Insight explores June revenues and these restatements.

WSTS has released its June semiconductor revenue figures, revealing a month-month revenue decline of 0.3% from May.While this indicates that the industry's sensitivity to the COVID-19 pandemic is mild, close inspection reveals that May revenues have been re-stated, and this has muted the decline.  This Smartkarma Insight explores June revenues and these restatements.

WSTS Reports June Semis: Lessens M/M Decline by Restating May

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<div><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM Holdings (AEM SP)</a> posted stellar 1H20 results and raised its 2020 guidance. The margin improvement was strong as NPM doubled from 14.8% to 20.2%. Long-term the company's TAM continues to rise and diversification away from core-client <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> will gather pace in FY21-22. As chips get more complicated, more system-level testing will be needed remains the crux of the investment case. The trend of working at home, data centers, 5G, and AI all necessitate more complex chips.</div><div>
While investors in ASEAN SMIDcaps often have to worry about the alignment of the promoters and the interests of minorities we believe they are aligned at AEM. Free float is over 83% which also makes AEM a prime takeover candidate, but not before maximum value has been extracted by the current management team.
It is too early to have any visibility into 2021's order book but management did note its new test handler is now with its key client for testing. The hope is a demand for this new generation test handler will be large. The risk is demand for the new test handler is weak and FY20 will prove to be peak profits for AEM.
Our previous Fair Value was 3.7 SGD, but is now raised to 5 SGD which would mean the company has a 1 billion USD market cap. Many global funds have this as a cut-off point so expect AEM to get on the radar of many new investors. This also increases the likelihood of coverage by large international brokers and potentially a dual listing on Nasdaq at some point.
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AEM Holdings (AEM SP) posted stellar 1H20 results and raised its 2020 guidance. The margin improvement was strong as NPM doubled from 14.8% to 20.2%. Long-term the company's TAM continues to rise and diversification away from core-client Intel Corp (INTC US) will gather pace in FY21-22. As chips get more complicated, more system-level testing will be needed remains the crux of the investment case. The trend of working at home, data centers, 5G, and AI all necessitate more complex chips.
While investors in ASEAN SMIDcaps often have to worry about the alignment of the promoters and the interests of minorities we believe they are aligned at AEM. Free float is over 83% which also makes AEM a prime takeover candidate, but not before maximum value has been extracted by the current management team.
It is too early to have any visibility into 2021's order book but management did note its new test handler is now with its key client for testing. The hope is a demand for this new generation test handler will be large. The risk is demand for the new test handler is weak and FY20 will prove to be peak profits for AEM.
Our previous Fair Value was 3.7 SGD, but is now raised to 5 SGD which would mean the company has a 1 billion USD market cap. Many global funds have this as a cut-off point so expect AEM to get on the radar of many new investors. This also increases the likelihood of coverage by large international brokers and potentially a dual listing on Nasdaq at some point.


AEM: Onwards to $1 Billion Market Cap; Now More Attractive as M&A Target with Biz Diversification

United States

QUALCOMM, Inc . manufactures digital wireless communications equipment.  The Company licenses its code division multiple access (CDMA) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing access intellectual property to other companies, and produces CDMA-based integrated circuits; and produces equipment and software used to track workers and assets; and software for wireless content enablement.

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Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)

NVIDIA+Arm. Strategically Solid But Practically Impossible.

The long-anticipated acquisition by NVIDIA of Arm Holdings (ARM LN)

William Keating

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Semiconductors

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused profound business shifts,

Jim Handy

Semis Moving from Inventory Build to Inventory Digestion

Recent announcements have indicated that the semiconductor market is migrating from a period of strength from an inventory build-up to softer...

Jim Handy

WSTS Reports June Semis: Lessens M/M Decline by Restating May

WSTS has released its June semiconductor revenue figures, revealing a month-month revenue decline of 0.3% from May.While this indicates that the...

Jim Handy

AEM: Onwards to $1 Billion Market Cap; Now More Attractive as M&A Target with Biz Diversification

AEM Holdings (AEM SP) posted stellar 1H20 results and raised its 2020 guidance. The margin improvement was strong as NPM doubled from 14.8% to...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

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