Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In 2020 the semiconductor market defied the odds by thriving as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, rather than suffering from it.  2021 is lining up to do similarly well, but the risk of a global economic collapse would drag the chip market in the opposite direction.  This Insight explores both possibilities.

In 2020 the semiconductor market defied the odds by thriving as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, rather than suffering from it.  2021 is lining up to do similarly well, but the risk of a global economic collapse would drag the chip market in the opposite direction.  This Insight explores both possibilities.

2021 High Conviction: Semiconductor Growth with COVID Risk

The latest WSTS semiconductor forecast provides a glittering outlook, but the organization's history, and the long-term trend of the industry, cast important doubt on the WSTS outlook.  Most of the positive sentiment appears to stem from the strong current market for memory chips.

The latest WSTS semiconductor forecast provides a glittering outlook, but the organization's history, and the long-term trend of the industry, cast important doubt on the WSTS outlook.  Most of the positive sentiment appears to stem from the strong current market for memory chips.

The SIA announced WSTS monthly semiconductor sales statistics for October 2020.   Sales were 6% higher than October 2019 and 3.1% higher than the prior month.  While this looks like the beginning of a growth phase, it seems more likely that sales will drop back to trend in the near future.

The SIA announced WSTS monthly semiconductor sales statistics for October 2020.   Sales were 6% higher than October 2019 and 3.1% higher than the prior month.  While this looks like the beginning of a growth phase, it seems more likely that sales will drop back to trend in the near future.

October Semiconductor Revenues Continue Upward Trend

The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) for September have been released, and they indicate that 2020 will see modest revenue growth despite the COVID-19 pandemic.  This is a pleasant surprise given that so many people are currently unable to work or to spend money on their favorite activities.

The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) for September have been released, and they indicate that 2020 will see modest revenue growth despite the COVID-19 pandemic.  This is a pleasant surprise given that so many people are currently unable to work or to spend money on their favorite activities.

September Semiconductor Stats In: 2020 Growth Despite Pandemic

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM Holdings (AEM SP)</a> published great 9M20 results. Management will give FY21 guidance in January but sounded upbeat on its prospects going into FY21.AEM has hired an entire new CEO/CFO/CTO suite over the past 18 months. We believe this highly qualified new C-suit would not have joined AEM if they did not see a clear path of making AEM into a 1 billion USD company going forward. YTD the share price of AEM is up by 75% but has come off its earlier highs. Given FY21 guidance uncertainty and muted consensus expectations (2% revenue growth in FY21 and -1% growth in FY22) we like the risk/reward set-up. The downside is protected by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM Holdings (AEM SP)</a> becoming a takeover target itself at some point but not before the maximum value has been extracted by the current management team.Fair Value of 5 SGD remains (this is based on 10x 2020 EV/EBITDA or 14.7x 2020 P/E). Peers trade at an average of 26.1x 2020 P/E and 16.9x 2020 EV/EBITDA.

AEM Holdings (AEM SP) published great 9M20 results. Management will give FY21 guidance in January but sounded upbeat on its prospects going into FY21.AEM has hired an entire new CEO/CFO/CTO suite over the past 18 months. We believe this highly qualified new C-suit would not have joined AEM if they did not see a clear path of making AEM into a 1 billion USD company going forward. YTD the share price of AEM is up by 75% but has come off its earlier highs. Given FY21 guidance uncertainty and muted consensus expectations (2% revenue growth in FY21 and -1% growth in FY22) we like the risk/reward set-up. The downside is protected by AEM Holdings (AEM SP) becoming a takeover target itself at some point but not before the maximum value has been extracted by the current management team.Fair Value of 5 SGD remains (this is based on 10x 2020 EV/EBITDA or 14.7x 2020 P/E). Peers trade at an average of 26.1x 2020 P/E and 16.9x 2020 EV/EBITDA.

AEM Holdings: Optimistic on FY21; Fair Value Remains at 5 SGD (41% Upside)

United States

QUALCOMM, Inc . manufactures digital wireless communications equipment.  The Company licenses its code division multiple access (CDMA) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing access intellectual property to other companies, and produces CDMA-based integrated circuits; and produces equipment and software used to track workers and assets; and software for wireless content enablement.

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Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)

2021 High Conviction: Semiconductor Growth with COVID Risk

In 2021 either the chip market will grow or a COVID-driven collapse will cause it to decline. This Insight shows how to estimate either extreme,...

Jim Handy

WSTS Forecast Update All Positive

WSTS announced a very bullish semiconductor forecast, but this Insight shows why the careful investor needs to understand how this forecast came to...

Jim Handy

October Semiconductor Revenues Continue Upward Trend

October semiconductor sales showed impressive growth. Will this acceleration continue? This post indicates that revenues are most likely to drop...

Jim Handy

September Semiconductor Stats In: 2020 Growth Despite Pandemic

September's semiconductor industry stats indicate 5+% growth for 2020. Can the business sustain this, or will COVID-19 and/or the US-China Trade...

Jim Handy

AEM Holdings: Optimistic on FY21; Fair Value Remains at 5 SGD (41% Upside)

AEM beat consensus for the 7th quarter in a row. An entirely new C-suite can now take the company to its next milestone: 1 billion USD market cap...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

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