Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Consumer electronics retailers and producers benefited a lot from the pandemic, supplying customers stuck at home with kit for work and play. </li>
<li>The Olympics also encouraged people to update their TVs and entertainment systems.</li>
<li>Now, sales are falling to pre-2020 levels due to saturation. Inflationary pressures also mean more people are turning to second-hand options or simply not replacing old appliances at all.</li>
</ul>


Consumer electronics retailers and producers benefited a lot from the pandemic, supplying customers stuck at home with kit for work and play. 
The Olympics also encouraged people to update their TVs and entertainment systems.
Now, sales are falling to pre-2020 levels due to saturation. Inflationary pressures also mean more people are turning to second-hand options or simply not replacing old appliances at all.


Japan's Consumer Electronics Retailers Face Tough Outlook

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In 2018, Suruga Bank got itself in trouble, the shares fell 80% or more in a year-plus. In 2019 they took a big hit, and the Okano family sold out.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nojima-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9655:1" rel="noopener">Nojima Corp (7419 JP)</a> bought the shares -85% from the peak. Now they are selling those shares, plus the ones they already owned. Down nearly 10% from where they bought. </li>
<li>This is an instant 15+% boost to BVPS and 22+% boost to EPS. That's great. But that may be where greatness stops.</li>
</ul>


In 2018, Suruga Bank got itself in trouble, the shares fell 80% or more in a year-plus. In 2019 they took a big hit, and the Okano family sold out.

Nojima Corp (7419 JP) bought the shares -85% from the peak. Now they are selling those shares, plus the ones they already owned. Down nearly 10% from where they bought. 
This is an instant 15+% boost to BVPS and 22+% boost to EPS. That's great. But that may be where greatness stops.


Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suruga-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6267:1" rel="noopener">Suruga Bank Ltd (8358 JP)</a>has raised its interim guidance for 1H FY3/2022 consolidated net profits for the second time in three months: this time by +78% to ¥17.8 billion, or ¥76.86/share.  Credit costs, initially estimated at ¥2 billion for 1H FY3/2022, are now likely to be negative: a write-back to profits of ‘surplus’ loan loss reserves of as much as ¥6.6 billion, suggesting further progress in cleaning up the balance-sheet after the catastrophic ‘share house’ scandal.  This is significant: back in May this year, Suruga was forecasting an interim net loss of ¥2.3 billion because of further precautionary provisioning expenses.Suruga Bank remains one of the most heavily traded Japanese bank stocks and is regularly one of the Top 5 Japanese bank stocks in terms of daily trading volume behind only the three megabanks and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/resona-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6841:1" rel="noopener">Resona Holdings (8308 JP)</a>. It is currently trading on a remarkably low PER versus peers of 4.1x (assuming 2H FY3/2022 consolidated net profits are at least ¥8 billion, producing a FY3/2022 EPS of ¥122.2/share or better) and an undemanding PBR of 0.37x.Risks remain, of course, and we continue to warn that this is a stock for players of the Long Game only.  The intended disposal of the 18.5% stake in Suruga held by its largest shareholder, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nojima-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9655:1" rel="noopener">Nojima Corp (7419 JP)</a>, remains an unresolved issue. Nevertheless, the positives continue to increase while the negatives continue to diminish, and the shares are significantly outperforming the Topix Banks Index for the first time in many months.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/240/048/original/8358-Suruga-2021-1105-8358vsTPNBNK-CY2021.jpg?1636249764" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="240048"></figure></section>

Suruga Bank Ltd (8358 JP)has raised its interim guidance for 1H FY3/2022 consolidated net profits for the second time in three months: this time by +78% to ¥17.8 billion, or ¥76.86/share.  Credit costs, initially estimated at ¥2 billion for 1H FY3/2022, are now likely to be negative: a write-back to profits of ‘surplus’ loan loss reserves of as much as ¥6.6 billion, suggesting further progress in cleaning up the balance-sheet after the catastrophic ‘share house’ scandal.  This is significant: back in May this year, Suruga was forecasting an interim net loss of ¥2.3 billion because of further precautionary provisioning expenses.Suruga Bank remains one of the most heavily traded Japanese bank stocks and is regularly one of the Top 5 Japanese bank stocks in terms of daily trading volume behind only the three megabanks and Resona Holdings (8308 JP). It is currently trading on a remarkably low PER versus peers of 4.1x (assuming 2H FY3/2022 consolidated net profits are at least ¥8 billion, producing a FY3/2022 EPS of ¥122.2/share or better) and an undemanding PBR of 0.37x.Risks remain, of course, and we continue to warn that this is a stock for players of the Long Game only.  The intended disposal of the 18.5% stake in Suruga held by its largest shareholder, Nojima Corp (7419 JP), remains an unresolved issue. Nevertheless, the positives continue to increase while the negatives continue to diminish, and the shares are significantly outperforming the Topix Banks Index for the first time in many months.

Suruga Bank (8358 JP):  The Sun Also Rises

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

Growth as a style has been the “norm” for years, is the “norm” about to end? The continued strategies by Central Bank’s towards a “lower for longer stance around interest rates”, extended the underperformance of value for most of 2020. However, with the value/growth investment style ratio at 20-year lows, we present 27 names which hold characteristics worthy of further review.

Growth as a style has been the “norm” for years, is the “norm” about to end? The continued strategies by Central Bank’s towards a “lower for longer stance around interest rates”, extended the underperformance of value for most of 2020. However, with the value/growth investment style ratio at 20-year lows, we present 27 names which hold characteristics worthy of further review. 

Screening the Silk Road: Q1 2021 All Cap Screening - Free Cashflow (FCF)

By 2019, many retailers and brands were already introducing new technology solutions to make up for labour shortages. Despite the crisis, shortages continue to be a major headache in the service sector and the downturn in trading since March has only accelerated efforts to replace staff with tech.This could create new problems as older employees lose their jobs although will also reduce pressure on the labour market and lessen labour shortages in retailing.

By 2019, many retailers and brands were already introducing new technology solutions to make up for labour shortages. Despite the crisis, shortages continue to be a major headache in the service sector and the downturn in trading since March has only accelerated efforts to replace staff with tech.This could create new problems as older employees lose their jobs although will also reduce pressure on the labour market and lessen labour shortages in retailing.

Surge in Calls for Retail Voluntary Redundancies Likely to Continue

Japan

Nojima Corporation operates consumer electronic store chains that specialize in computers and communication products.  The Company also sells entertainment related items such as game software and CDs, and household appliances. The Company operates  and franchises stores in Kanagawa Prefecture.

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Nojima Corp (7419 JP)

Japan's Consumer Electronics Retailers Face Tough Outlook

Don't expect much growth from Japan's consumer electronics retailers. With market saturation and waning demand, there is trouble ahead and possibly...

Michael Causton

HUGE Suruga Bank (8358 JP) Buyback

Suruga Bank will do a large ToSTNeT-3 Buyback this morning at last trade. It is 15.7% accretive to BVPS and 22.7% accretive to EPS. That's great....

Travis Lundy

Suruga Bank (8358 JP): The Sun Also Rises

Suruga Bank (8358 JP) has raised its interim guidance for the second time in three months to ¥17.8 billion, or ¥76.86/share. The stock is...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Screening the Silk Road: Q1 2021 All Cap Screening - Free Cashflow (FCF)

With the value/growth investment style ratio at 20-year lows, we present 27 names which hold characteristics worthy of further review.

David Lepper

Surge in Calls for Retail Voluntary Redundancies Likely to Continue

Japan's retail industry has been hit by labour shortages in the last 5 years but layoffs in the industry in the last year could end that, at least...

Michael Causton

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