Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.</li>
<li>This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.</li>
<li>We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.
This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.
We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight


MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Samvat 2079 proved to be an intriguing year for the Indian equity market, characterized by notable volatility in the first half.</li><li>Several factors contributed to this turbulence, including a) A hawkish central bank view on the interest rates, b) Rising bond yields, c) Rising Covid-19 cases in China towards the end of 2022, d) Imposition of lockdowns in the Chinese economy, e) Union budget-related developments, and f) Other macroeconomic challenges.</li><li>These occurrences collectively subdued market performance in the first half of Samvat. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Samvat 2079 proved to be an intriguing year for the Indian equity market, characterized by notable volatility in the first half.Several factors contributed to this turbulence, including a) A hawkish central bank view on the interest rates, b) Rising bond yields, c) Rising Covid-19 cases in China towards the end of 2022, d) Imposition of lockdowns in the Chinese economy, e) Union budget-related developments, and f) Other macroeconomic challenges.These occurrences collectively subdued market performance in the first half of Samvat. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul>
<li>We remain constructive on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) holds above major support at $90.50-91.50.</li>
<li>We continue to monitor for whether ACWI-US and EEM-US break supports at $90.50-91.50 and $37, or if broken indexes (EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, EAFE) can reclaim supports.</li>
<li>Neither has happened yet, so we remain in wait-and-see mode. We are downgrading non-US small-caps to market weight. Non-US Value remains leadership -- remain overweight/buys in Financials and Communications</li>
</ul>


We remain constructive on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) holds above major support at $90.50-91.50.
We continue to monitor for whether ACWI-US and EEM-US break supports at $90.50-91.50 and $37, or if broken indexes (EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, EAFE) can reclaim supports.
Neither has happened yet, so we remain in wait-and-see mode. We are downgrading non-US small-caps to market weight. Non-US Value remains leadership -- remain overweight/buys in Financials and Communications


MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.</li>
<li>This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.</li>
<li>We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare</li>
</ul>


Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.
This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.
We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare


Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After a heavy decline in ownership between 2016 and 2020, active Asia Ex-Japan managers are re-engaging with Baidu Inc.</li>
<li>Ownership levels are at 4-year highs, with Baidu one of the key beneficiaries of manager rotation this year.</li>
<li>Baidu is the 3rd largest holding in the Communication Services sector, but there a plenty of funds with a history of ownership who remain on the sidelines for now.</li>
</ul>


After a heavy decline in ownership between 2016 and 2020, active Asia Ex-Japan managers are re-engaging with Baidu Inc.
Ownership levels are at 4-year highs, with Baidu one of the key beneficiaries of manager rotation this year.
Baidu is the 3rd largest holding in the Communication Services sector, but there a plenty of funds with a history of ownership who remain on the sidelines for now.


India

Vodafone Idea Limited operates as a telecom service provider. The Company offers 2G, 3G, and 4G mobile services, as well as mobile payments, advanced enterprise offerings, and entertainment. Vodafone Idea serves customers in India.

Tata Teleservices Maharashtra Ltd has been licensed by the Government of India to create and maintain telephone services in the states of Maharashtra and Goa. The Group utilizes broadband wired and wireless systems to supply broadband, data and Internet services, which encompass interactive video and multimedia feeds, and web based applications.

Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) (TTLS IN)

GTL Infrastructure Limited is a shared user infrastructure company. The Company provides passive telecom infrastructure and related network infrastructure for multiple service providers.

Tata Communications Limited provides telecommunications services. The Company provides international telephone, telex and telegraphy services, international maritime mobile communications, INTELSAT business service and bureau fax and t-fax services. Tata Communications also provides internet access, electronic mail and electronic data interchange services.

HFCL Ltd provides telecommunication infrastructure construction services. The Company offers optical fiber cables, microwave radios, battery management, and solar solutions. HFCL serves customers in India.

Reliance Communications Ltd. offers integrated telephone services. The Company offers fixed line and wireless voice, data and video transmission services, and Internet access.

Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited operates a telecommunications company, which provides basic phone, Internet and cellular mobile telephony services in Delhi and Mumbai. The Company upgrades the quality of telecom services, expands the telecom network, introduces new services and raises revenue for the telecom development needs of Delhi and Mumbai.

PVR INOX Limited operates cinemas. The Company owns and manages multiplex movie theaters.

Zee Entertainment Enterprises Limited operates as an entertainment company. The Company produces and develops films, serials, game shows, and children's programs. Zee also produces and exports entertainment software for transmission on its ZEE TV channel. Zee Entertainment Enterprises serves customers in India.

Saregama India Limited manufactures, sells and deals in Audio Cassettes, CD's and DVDs, which they market in India, Europe, the USA, Canada, the Caribbean Islands and South Africa. The Group's range of music encompasses both new and old Hindi films, regional films, ghazals, classical, Indipop and International. Saregama also has a film business, which produces films and TV serials.

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

KDDI CORPORATION provides mobile communication services and sells mobile devices.  The Company also is a broadband provider.

America Movil SAB de C.V. provides wireless communications in 18 countries across Latin America, the Caribbean and the U.S. The company also offers fixed-line phone, Internet and pay-TV services in most parts of the region.

America Movil SAB de C.V. provides telecommunications services. The Company offers wireless and fixed voice services, including airtime, local, domestic, international long-distance, and broadband services. America Movil serves customers worldwide.

Softbank Corporation provides mobile phone telecommunication and networking services. The Company offers mobile communication opening, short messaging function opening, video function opening, and other services. Softbank also provides mobile phones.

China United Network Communications Limited provides a variety of telecommunication services, including GSM and CDMA wireless telecommunication services, international and domestic long distance communication services, data communication and Internet services, as well as paging services.

Vodafone Group PLC is a mobile telecommunications company providing a range of services, including voice and data communications.  The Company operates in Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, the United States, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East through its subsidiaries, associates, and investments.

Rogers Communications, Inc. is a diversified Canadian communications and media company. The Company's activities include wireless voice and data communications services over its national GSM, HSPA and LTE networks; cable television, telephony and high speed Internet access services over its broadband networks; and radio and TV broadcasting, televised shopping, magazines, and sports.

Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited is granted a 25-year concession expiring the year 2015 by the Telephone Organization of Thailand to provide cellular phone services.  The Company provides analog mobile phone services through the Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT900) network, and digital phone services through the Global Systems for Mobile Communication (GSM) network.

SK Telecom Co., Ltd. is a Korean mobile and telecommunications operator. The Company provides cellular voice, wireless data, and wireless internet services. SK Telecom also offers fixed line services and platform services.

Bharti Airtel Limited, a part of Bharti Enterprises, provides telecommunications services throughout India. The Company provides GSM Mobile Services, broadband, fixed line telephone services, long distance services (international & national) and enterprise services.

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Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN)

MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

In our prior EM Strategy (10/2/23) we discussed that, if $EEM is above $37, we were buyers on the pullback. Support held and now EEM displays a...

Vermilion Research

Diwali Muhurat Picks SAMVAT 2080

Samvat 2079 proved to be an intriguing year for the Indian equity market, characterized by notable volatility in the first half.

Axis Direct

MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

MSCI $ACWI, MSCI EM $EEM Still Above Supports at $90.50-$91.50 and $37, though being tested today. Meanwhile, broken indexes (EURO $STOXX 50,...

Vermilion Research

Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Support levels on global indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) beginning to break as $DXY and 10-year Treasury yield $TNX break above $105.70 and...

Vermilion Research

Baidu: Back in the Mix

After a heavy decline in ownership between 2016 and 2020, active Asia Ex-Japan managers are re-engaging with Baidu Inc..

Steven Holden

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