CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine new join the fray</li>
<li>Since inception, it has gained 96% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 29%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine new join the fray
Since inception, it has gained 96% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 29%


The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 40

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)</a> is likely to join the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> in early March following the DTAC/TRUE merger.</li>
<li>Then there should be one change in June with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jaymart-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12053:1" rel="noopener">Jaymart PCL (JMART TB)</a> in the index.</li>
<li>There is one stock close to failing the liquidity test and that could lead to another change with a few stocks vying for index inclusion.</li>
</ul>



Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB) is likely to join the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) in early March following the DTAC/TRUE merger.
Then there should be one change in June with Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) replacing Jaymart PCL (JMART TB) in the index.
There is one stock close to failing the liquidity test and that could lead to another change with a few stocks vying for index inclusion.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Back on the 7 November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a>'s board approved the sale of its 41.13% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thaicom-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18019:1" rel="noopener">Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB)</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a>.</li>
<li>The sale price was Bt 9.92/share, a 19.3% discount last close. Intouch shareholders overwhelmingly approved the sale on the 28 December, which subsequently triggered an MTO. </li>
<li>The Offer is now open for acceptances. The Offer closes on the 9 February. Intouch will pass through 100% of the sale proceeds via a special dividend. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 7 November, Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)'s board approved the sale of its 41.13% stake in Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB) to Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB).
The sale price was Bt 9.92/share, a 19.3% discount last close. Intouch shareholders overwhelmingly approved the sale on the 28 December, which subsequently triggered an MTO. 
The Offer is now open for acceptances. The Offer closes on the 9 February. Intouch will pass through 100% of the sale proceeds via a special dividend. 


Thaicom: Gulf Energy’s Low-Balled MTO Now Open For Acceptances

Delta Electronics Thailand  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/central-plaza-hotel-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18213:1" rel="noopener">Central Plaza Hotel</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/com7-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27411:1" rel="noopener">Com7 PCL</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thai-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thai</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ratch-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15338:1" rel="noopener">Ratch Group</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-life-assurance-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16237:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Life Assurance</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irpc-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19051:1" rel="noopener">IRPC PCL</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">KCE Electronics PCL</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a>. </li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 2-4 days of ADV on the adds while selling between 0.6-3 days of ADV on the deletes.</li>
<li>The adds have significantly outperformed the deletes over the last few months. We'd use any big moves over the next couple of days to trim positions.</li>
</ul>



Central Plaza Hotel, Com7 PCL, Delta Electronics Thai and Ratch Group will replace Bangkok Life Assurance, IRPC PCL, KCE Electronics PCL and Srisawad Power in the SET 50 Index. 
Passive trackers will need to buy between 2-4 days of ADV on the adds while selling between 0.6-3 days of ADV on the deletes.
The adds have significantly outperformed the deletes over the last few months. We'd use any big moves over the next couple of days to trim positions.


SET50 Index Rebalance: CENTEL, COM7, DELTA, RATCH Added; BLA, IRPC, KCE, SAWAD Out

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Total Access Communication / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Administrative Court has dismissed the Thai Consumers Council petition to impose an injunction on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> merger.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telenor-asa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22258:1" rel="noopener">Telenor ASA (TEL NO)</a> and CP Group are currently seeking clarification on certain NBTC conditions such as tariff adjustments and MVNOs network capacity. </li>
<li>Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 9.072x vs exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and tweaks to the exchange ratio are risks.</li>
</ul>


The Administrative Court has dismissed the Thai Consumers Council petition to impose an injunction on the Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)/True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) merger.

Telenor ASA (TEL NO) and CP Group are currently seeking clarification on certain NBTC conditions such as tariff adjustments and MVNOs network capacity. 
Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 9.072x vs exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and tweaks to the exchange ratio are risks.


DTAC/True Merger: The Court Dismisses the Consumer Council’s Petition

Thailand

Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited is granted a 25-year concession expiring the year 2015 by the Telephone Organization of Thailand to provide cellular phone services.  The Company provides analog mobile phone services through the Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT900) network, and digital phone services through the Global Systems for Mobile Communication (GSM) network.

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Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 40

We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine new join...

A. Stotz Investment Research

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

SAWAD could be added to the index in March. Then TLI should replace JMART in June. INTUCH is a close delete on liquidity and there are multiple...

Brian Freitas

Thaicom: Gulf Energy’s Low-Balled MTO Now Open For Acceptances

I'd reverse the stub here and short Intouch, and long AIS. I see no obvious trade on Thaicom. Watch for the special dividend from Intouch.

David Blennerhassett

SET50 Index Rebalance: CENTEL, COM7, DELTA, RATCH Added; BLA, IRPC, KCE, SAWAD Out

There are 4 changes for the SET50 Index in Dec, all in line with forecasts. Passive trackers will need to buy between 2-4 days ADV on the adds...

Brian Freitas

DTAC/True Merger: The Court Dismisses the Consumer Council’s Petition

The Court ruling removes an impediment to the merger. Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 9.072x vs exchange ratio of...

Arun George

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