Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We maintain our BUY rating but lower TP by 4% to Bt236,calculated using DCF,to factor in earnings cut as our 22E and 23E forecasts were slightly aggressive. 3Q22 core earnings </li>
<li>Analyst meeting key details ADVANC has begun phasing out of its Bt100 to Bt150 low-end price plans in its prepaid segment due to the unsustainability.</li>
<li>No new progress has been made on the TTTBB deal. We expect ADVANC to make a counteroffer within 4Q22 to wrap-up the deal by 1H23.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our BUY rating but lower TP by 4% to Bt236,calculated using DCF,to factor in earnings cut as our 22E and 23E forecasts were slightly aggressive. 3Q22 core earnings 
Analyst meeting key details ADVANC has begun phasing out of its Bt100 to Bt150 low-end price plans in its prepaid segment due to the unsustainability.
No new progress has been made on the TTTBB deal. We expect ADVANC to make a counteroffer within 4Q22 to wrap-up the deal by 1H23.


ADVANC : Price War Remains Intense Amidst Inflation

<ul>
<li>We maintain our BUY rating and TP of Bt246 (WACC: 8.7%,TG: 2%).Deal with JASIF did not turn out in ADVANC’s favor, but we expect the company to make a counteroffer.</li>
<li>Counteroffer to JASIF will lower ADVANC’s upside JASIF unitholders voted to approve agendas 1.1 (ADVANC purchasing 19% of JASIF) and 1.3 (AWN having control over TTTBB’s finances)</li>
<li>ADVANC now has three options based on the unitholders’ resolution: 1) reject the deal, 2) make a new proposal that’s more attractive, or 3) accept the deal.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our BUY rating and TP of Bt246 (WACC: 8.7%,TG: 2%).Deal with JASIF did not turn out in ADVANC’s favor, but we expect the company to make a counteroffer.
Counteroffer to JASIF will lower ADVANC’s upside JASIF unitholders voted to approve agendas 1.1 (ADVANC purchasing 19% of JASIF) and 1.3 (AWN having control over TTTBB’s finances)
ADVANC now has three options based on the unitholders’ resolution: 1) reject the deal, 2) make a new proposal that’s more attractive, or 3) accept the deal.


ADVANC : ADVANC May Not Give up on JASIF Deal Yet

<ul>
<li>We maintain our BUY rating but cut TP by 5% to Bt246,based on DCF,implying 21.8xPE’22E to factor in earnings cut.  Its 2Q22 core earnings was in-line at Bt6.6bn (-8%YoY, +5QoQ)</li>
<li>2Q22 core earnings was in-line with our forecast 2Q22 core earnings stood at Bt6.6bn (-8% YoY, +5% QoQ),declining YoY from higher SG&amp;A costs while increasing QoQ from higher gross margin.</li>
<li>2Q22 revenue was at Bt45bn (+6%YoY,flat QoQ).YoY increase was due to continued growth in broadband and enterprise&amp;digital business. QoQ was flat due to lack of growth in mobile service revenue.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our BUY rating but cut TP by 5% to Bt246,based on DCF,implying 21.8xPE’22E to factor in earnings cut.  Its 2Q22 core earnings was in-line at Bt6.6bn (-8%YoY, +5QoQ)
2Q22 core earnings was in-line with our forecast 2Q22 core earnings stood at Bt6.6bn (-8% YoY, +5% QoQ),declining YoY from higher SG&amp;A costs while increasing QoQ from higher gross margin.
2Q22 revenue was at Bt45bn (+6%YoY,flat QoQ).YoY increase was due to continued growth in broadband and enterprise&amp;digital business. QoQ was flat due to lack of growth in mobile service revenue.


ADVANC : In-Line 2Q22 Result Despite Price War

<ul>
<li>We maintain our BUY rating and TP of Bt259 based on based on DCF,representing 26.4xPE’22E. Analyst meeting yesterday on ADVANC’s acquisition of TTTBB and JASIF units came with positive tone</li>
<li>The deal should be highly favorable for ADVANC:We believe that the entire transaction could provide a 8.5% upside to our current forecasted 23E EPS through Adjusted EPS, leading to Bt11.54/share.</li>
<li>2Q22E earnings will keep 22E earnings on track We believe that 2Q22E net profit will be at Bt6.5bn(-7% YoY, +4% QoQ).Seasonal low costs, despite high competition, will lead to QoQ </li>
</ul>


We maintain our BUY rating and TP of Bt259 based on based on DCF,representing 26.4xPE’22E. Analyst meeting yesterday on ADVANC’s acquisition of TTTBB and JASIF units came with positive tone
The deal should be highly favorable for ADVANC:We believe that the entire transaction could provide a 8.5% upside to our current forecasted 23E EPS through Adjusted EPS, leading to Bt11.54/share.
2Q22E earnings will keep 22E earnings on track We believe that 2Q22E net profit will be at Bt6.5bn(-7% YoY, +4% QoQ).Seasonal low costs, despite high competition, will lead to QoQ 


ADVANC : Large Boost to Broadband Business Growth

<ul>
<li>Maintain BUY rating with TP of Bt259 based on DCF,implying 23.8xPE’22E. Analyst meeting came out with slightly negative news on 2022 prospects. DTAC and TRUE fiercely competing for market share</li>
<li>We expect to see soft earnings recovery in 2Q22 from weak top-line growth.Price competition will remain intense, but the strong performances in broadband and CCIID segment will support revenue growth</li>
<li>Maintain our 2022 earnings at Bt29bn(+9%YoY).We still believe that in 2H22, 5G ARPU uplift and recovery in tourism to boost consumer confidence will help ARPU reverse and support earnings growth.</li>
</ul>


Maintain BUY rating with TP of Bt259 based on DCF,implying 23.8xPE’22E. Analyst meeting came out with slightly negative news on 2022 prospects. DTAC and TRUE fiercely competing for market share
We expect to see soft earnings recovery in 2Q22 from weak top-line growth.Price competition will remain intense, but the strong performances in broadband and CCIID segment will support revenue growth
Maintain our 2022 earnings at Bt29bn(+9%YoY).We still believe that in 2H22, 5G ARPU uplift and recovery in tourism to boost consumer confidence will help ARPU reverse and support earnings growth.


ADVANC: 1Q22 ARPU Decline Could Be the Trend Throughout 2022

Thailand

Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited is granted a 25-year concession expiring the year 2015 by the Telephone Organization of Thailand to provide cellular phone services.  The Company provides analog mobile phone services through the Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT900) network, and digital phone services through the Global Systems for Mobile Communication (GSM) network.

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Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)

ADVANC : Price War Remains Intense Amidst Inflation

We maintain our BUY rating but lower TP by 4% to Bt236, calculated using DCF, to factor in earnings cut as our 22E and 23E forecasts were slightly...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

ADVANC : ADVANC May Not Give up on JASIF Deal Yet

Intervention should be a measure of last resort. It really shouldn’t be used as much as you can,” Shinohara said. “Still, by not announcing it each...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

ADVANC : In-Line 2Q22 Result Despite Price War

We maintain our BUY rating but cut TP by 5% to Bt246, based on DCF,implying 21.8xPE’22E to factor in earnings cut. Its 2Q22 core earnings was in...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

ADVANC : Large Boost to Broadband Business Growth

We maintain our BUY rating and TP of Bt259 based on based on DCF, representing 26.4xPE’22E. Analyst meeting yesterday on ADVANC’s acquisition of...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

ADVANC: 1Q22 ARPU Decline Could Be the Trend Throughout 2022

Maintain BUY rating with TP of Bt259 based on DCF, implying 23.8xPE’22E. Analyst meeting came out with slightly negative news on 2022 prospects....

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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