Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> ends 31 January. We see 2 potential changes at the rebalance which should be announced end February.</li>
<li>There is a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-hospitals-enterprise" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:880:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)</a>, while there is a lower probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India Ltd</a>.</li>
<li>The impact on the stocks is between 3-9 days of ADV, while the impact increases to between 9-22 days of delivery volume.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance of the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) ends 31 January. We see 2 potential changes at the rebalance which should be announced end February.
There is a high probability of Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN) replacing Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN), while there is a lower probability of Info Edge India replacing Coal India Ltd.
The impact on the stocks is between 3-9 days of ADV, while the impact increases to between 9-22 days of delivery volume.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Potential Changes in March

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited provides investment services. The Company provides corporate and investment banking, securities, wealth management, retail brokerage, initial public offerings, and advisory services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Coal India’s (CIL) Q3FY22 offtake volumes at 174mnte (up 12.8% YoY) took 9MFY22 volumes to 481.8mnte, up 17.6% YoY (up 15.4% vs 9MFY20), at an all-time high.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Coal India’s (CIL) Q3FY22 offtake volumes at 174mnte (up 12.8% YoY) took 9MFY22 volumes to 481.8mnte, up 17.6% YoY (up 15.4% vs 9MFY20), at an all-time high.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

All-time high YTD offtake indicates a record FY22

Apollo Hospitals Enterprise / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Nearly three-quarters of the way through the review period, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-hospitals-enterprise" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:880:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Hospitals (APHS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge (INFOE)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil (IOCL)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India (COAL)</a> in the NIFTY50.</li>
<li>The inclusion of Apollo Hospitals and deletion of IOC is a high probability event, while the inclusion of Info Edge and deletion of Coal India is a lower probability event.</li>
<li>The impact in terms of ADV to trade on the stocks is quite large and that increases further once we consider the impact in terms of delivery volumes.</li>
</ul>


Nearly three-quarters of the way through the review period, we see Apollo Hospitals (APHS) and Info Edge (INFOE) replacing Indian Oil (IOCL) and Coal India (COAL) in the NIFTY50.
The inclusion of Apollo Hospitals and deletion of IOC is a high probability event, while the inclusion of Info Edge and deletion of Coal India is a lower probability event.
The impact in terms of ADV to trade on the stocks is quite large and that increases further once we consider the impact in terms of delivery volumes.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Apollo Hospitals & Info Edge in the Zone to Replace IOC and COAL

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<p>COAL's 2QFY22 e-auction premiums have been disappointing. However, the management highlighted that the current premium is over 50% compared to the 15.3% reported in its 2QFY22 result. It has re-started e-auction to nonregulated sectors, which should result in improved profitability. The management expects the price hike to offset an increase in wages, given the current strong demand environment and high international coal prices. The stock trades at 3.4x/3x FY22E/FY23E EV/EBITDA, with an attractive dividend yield of 11%.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

COAL's 2QFY22 e-auction premiums have been disappointing. However, the management highlighted that the current premium is over 50% compared to the 15.3% reported in its 2QFY22 result. It has re-started e-auction to nonregulated sectors, which should result in improved profitability. The management expects the price hike to offset an increase in wages, given the current strong demand environment and high international coal prices. The stock trades at 3.4x/3x FY22E/FY23E EV/EBITDA, with an attractive dividend yield of 11%.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

e-auction recovery in sight, premiums to stay

<ul><li>Coal India (CIL) is the world’s largest pure play coal producer. In FY21, CIL produced 596 million tonnes (MT) while offtake for FY21 was at 574 MT</li><li>Coal India (CIL) reported a subdued performance for Q2FY22 on account of lower-than-expected FSA realisation and e-auction realisation.</li><li>We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock. We value CIL at Rs 160, 4.5x FY23E EV/EBITDA</li></ul><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Coal India (CIL) is the world’s largest pure play coal producer. In FY21, CIL produced 596 million tonnes (MT) while offtake for FY21 was at 574 MTCoal India (CIL) reported a subdued performance for Q2FY22 on account of lower-than-expected FSA realisation and e-auction realisation.We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock. We value CIL at Rs 160, 4.5x FY23E EV/EBITDAContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Coal India: Muted Operational Performance

India

Coal India Limited produces and markets coal and coal products, as well as provides related consulting services.

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Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Potential Changes in March

There is a high probability of Apollo Hosp replacing Indian Oil in the NIFTY Index at the March rebalance. There is a lower probability of Info...

Brian Freitas

All-time high YTD offtake indicates a record FY22

Coal India’s (CIL) Q3FY22 offtake volumes at 174mnte (up 12.8% YoY) took 9MFY22 volumes to 481.8mnte, up 17.6% YoY (up 15.4% vs 9MFY20), at an all...

ICICI Securities Limited

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Apollo Hospitals & Info Edge in the Zone to Replace IOC and COAL

High probability changes are inclusion of Apollo Hospitals & deletion of IOCL, while there is a lower probability of Info Edge being added & COAL...

Brian Freitas

e-auction recovery in sight, premiums to stay

COAL's 2QFY22 e-auction premiums have been disappointing. However, the management highlighted that the current premium is over 50% compared to the...

Motilal Oswal

Coal India: Muted Operational Performance

Coal India (CIL) is the world’s largest pure play coal producer. In FY21, CIL produced 596 million tonnes (MT) while offtake for FY21 was at 574 MT

ICICI Securities Limited

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