Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The Government of India is looking to raise up to US$540m via selling around 3% of Coal India.</li>
<li>This will be the third divestment by the Government since 2015 and the past two deals didn’t end up doing much.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


The Government of India is looking to raise up to US$540m via selling around 3% of Coal India.
This will be the third divestment by the Government since 2015 and the past two deals didn’t end up doing much.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Coal India Follow-On - Recent Momentum Is Strong but past Deals Haven’t Done Much

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>CIL posted a mixed set of numbers with revenue in line with our estimates while EBITDA/PAT reported a slight miss (6%/3%) from our estimates.</li><li>Revenue stood largely in line, up 17%/8% YoY/QoQ, led by higher sales offtake and ASPs (up 13%/2% YoY/QoQ).</li><li>EBITDA (down 24%/34% YoY/QoQ) missed our estimates by 6%, mainly on account of the higher- than-expected employee, contractual, and other expenses, which are partially offset by lower-than- expected RM (coal stock build-up) and stripping activity costs.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CIL posted a mixed set of numbers with revenue in line with our estimates while EBITDA/PAT reported a slight miss (6%/3%) from our estimates.Revenue stood largely in line, up 17%/8% YoY/QoQ, led by higher sales offtake and ASPs (up 13%/2% YoY/QoQ).EBITDA (down 24%/34% YoY/QoQ) missed our estimates by 6%, mainly on account of the higher- than-expected employee, contractual, and other expenses, which are partially offset by lower-than- expected RM (coal stock build-up) and stripping activity costs.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Coal India - Healthy Traction in Volumes Bodes Well

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Tata Steel reported its provisional sales volumes for Q4FY23.</li><li>Its Indian operations sales stood at 5.15MT, up marginally by 0.5% YoY and a robust 9% QoQ.</li><li>Tata Steel Europe’s sales volume declined to 2.13 MT, down 11% YoY, but recovered by 7% QoQ, indicating an improving demand environment.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tata Steel reported its provisional sales volumes for Q4FY23.Its Indian operations sales stood at 5.15MT, up marginally by 0.5% YoY and a robust 9% QoQ.Tata Steel Europe’s sales volume declined to 2.13 MT, down 11% YoY, but recovered by 7% QoQ, indicating an improving demand environment.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-22-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28307:1" rel="noopener">BHARAT 22 ETF (ICICIB22 IN)</a> will rebalance on 17 March while the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpse-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28191:1" rel="noopener">CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX)</a> will rebalance on 29 March.</li>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the indices in March but there will be capping changes for the stocks and there is a reasonable impact on some stocks.</li>
<li>There are stocks that will have opposing flows on the two days, while there are some stocks that will have same way flows from passive trackers.</li>
</ul>


The BHARAT 22 ETF (ICICIB22 IN) will rebalance on 17 March while the CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN) and Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) will rebalance on 29 March.
There are no constituent changes for the indices in March but there will be capping changes for the stocks and there is a reasonable impact on some stocks.
There are stocks that will have opposing flows on the two days, while there are some stocks that will have same way flows from passive trackers.


CPSE / BHARAT22 / CNXBANK Index Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes in March

<ul><li>E-auction premium on a declining trend: e-auction premium stood at 241% in Q3FY23 over FSA prices (down from 329% in Q2FY23) still at elevated level benefitting Coal India.</li><li>However, Dec’22 monthly e-auction premium has declined to 177% (241% in Nov’22).</li><li>With falling international coal prices we factor in lower e-auction prices in FY24E at Rs 2,575/t (vs. Rs 5,046/t in Q3FY23).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

E-auction premium on a declining trend: e-auction premium stood at 241% in Q3FY23 over FSA prices (down from 329% in Q2FY23) still at elevated level benefitting Coal India.However, Dec’22 monthly e-auction premium has declined to 177% (241% in Nov’22).With falling international coal prices we factor in lower e-auction prices in FY24E at Rs 2,575/t (vs. Rs 5,046/t in Q3FY23).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Coal India - Decent Q3, E-Auction Premiums Coming off the Peak

India

Coal India Limited produces and markets coal and coal products, as well as provides related consulting services.

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Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)

Coal India Follow-On - Recent Momentum Is Strong but past Deals Haven’t Done Much

The Government of India is looking to raise up to US$540m via selling around 3% of Coal India. The stock has performed well recently but the past...

Sumeet Singh

Coal India - Healthy Traction in Volumes Bodes Well

CIL posted a mixed set of numbers with revenue in line with our estimates while EBITDA/PAT reported a slight miss (6%/3%) from our estimates.

Axis Direct

Metals - Q4FY23 Earnings Preview

Tata Steel Europe’s sales volume declined to 2.13 MT, down 11% YoY, but recovered by 7% QoQ, indicating an improving demand environment.

Axis Direct

CPSE / BHARAT22 / CNXBANK Index Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes in March

There will be capping changes on the Bharat22, CPSE and NIFTYBANK indices in March. There are stocks that have opposite flows while some have same...

Brian Freitas

Coal India - Decent Q3, E-Auction Premiums Coming off the Peak

E-auction premium on a declining trend: e-auction premium stood at 241% in Q3FY23 over FSA prices (down from 329% in Q2FY23) still at elevated...

Axis Direct

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