Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In keeping with its penchant for developing every type of technology imaginable, Toyota has been working on not just fuel cells but also hydrogen engines.</li>
<li>Now it is partnering with Mazda, Subaru, Yamaha and KHI to further expand on this concept and add synthetic carbon neutral fuels to the mix.</li>
<li>These efforts could potentially provide alternative zero carbon transition paths and are worth understanding.</li>
</ul>


In keeping with its penchant for developing every type of technology imaginable, Toyota has been working on not just fuel cells but also hydrogen engines.
Now it is partnering with Mazda, Subaru, Yamaha and KHI to further expand on this concept and add synthetic carbon neutral fuels to the mix.
These efforts could potentially provide alternative zero carbon transition paths and are worth understanding.


Toyota – Revving Up the Hydrogen Engine

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>For Chinese machinery manufacturers, penetration overseas remains a longterm driver.</li><li>That said, with growth trend reversing since mid-2023 after 2-3 years of extraordinary growth, the way to overseas expansion will likely be bumpy in 2024E, especially when the overseas competitors are recovering from the supply chain bottleneck.</li><li>Geographically, we expect strong demand to continue in the US and the Middle East, but weakness in Europe and China. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

For Chinese machinery manufacturers, penetration overseas remains a longterm driver.That said, with growth trend reversing since mid-2023 after 2-3 years of extraordinary growth, the way to overseas expansion will likely be bumpy in 2024E, especially when the overseas competitors are recovering from the supply chain bottleneck.Geographically, we expect strong demand to continue in the US and the Middle East, but weakness in Europe and China. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Construction Machinery / HDT – 2024 Outlook

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS:  SPX -0.6% as Tech leads Tuesday's decline; Inflation concerns continue to weigh; UAW vs Detroit Big 3 discussion continue - strike deadline draws close; Fund managers avoid China. </li>
<li>JAPAN:  NKY Futs -0.6% Disc vs Cash; USDJPY 1471; Cabinet reshuffle day - changes in Defense and Foreign Affairs; GTX engine issue shocks Japanese partners;  Street upgrade Galore !</li>
<li>JAPAN X: Reports are that SoftBank is Explores New York Listing for PayPay Amid Rising Tech Valuations. With ARM (effectively) done and dusted, Softie likely turns to a PayPay listing</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS:  SPX -0.6% as Tech leads Tuesday's decline; Inflation concerns continue to weigh; UAW vs Detroit Big 3 discussion continue - strike deadline draws close; Fund managers avoid China. 
JAPAN:  NKY Futs -0.6% Disc vs Cash; USDJPY 1471; Cabinet reshuffle day - changes in Defense and Foreign Affairs; GTX engine issue shocks Japanese partners;  Street upgrade Galore !
JAPAN X: Reports are that SoftBank is Explores New York Listing for PayPay Amid Rising Tech Valuations. With ARM (effectively) done and dusted, Softie likely turns to a PayPay listing


Ohayo Japan: Tech Leads US Equity Decline; JAPAN X: Softbank's ARM Done(Almost), PayPay IPO Next?

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS: SPX rebounded on Monday with 9/11 Sectors positive; Tesla up 10% on upgrade from Morgan Stanley; Tech strong ahead of Apple's Event - expectations high; China stablilizing. </li>
<li>JAPAN: NKY Futs -0.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.6; JP yields rise; yen strengthens and Banks Rally as Ueda hints at normalization; This time is different:  WSJ on Japan </li>
<li>JAPAN X: Japan Equities: Is This Rally Different? We generally worry when the FT, WSJ jump on the Japan bandwagon - generally the top. However, the hard data is supportive..</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS: SPX rebounded on Monday with 9/11 Sectors positive; Tesla up 10% on upgrade from Morgan Stanley; Tech strong ahead of Apple's Event - expectations high; China stablilizing. 
JAPAN: NKY Futs -0.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.6; JP yields rise; yen strengthens and Banks Rally as Ueda hints at normalization; This time is different:  WSJ on Japan 
JAPAN X: Japan Equities: Is This Rally Different? We generally worry when the FT, WSJ jump on the Japan bandwagon - generally the top. However, the hard data is supportive..


Ohayo Japan:  SPX Rebounds - Tesla Leads; JAPAN X: Japan Equities: Is This Rally Different?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japan Industrial Partners (JIP) will launch the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> tender offer of JPY4,620 per share from 8 August to 20 September.</li>
<li>The Board has reaffirmed its recommendation to accept the offer. JIP’s inability to raise its bid is used as an excuse to ignore the material peer rerating and unattractive terms.</li>
<li>The 1Q results undermine the Board’s view of an overstated DCF and show its unwillingness to entertain a potential Kioxia merger as a superior alternative, increasing deal risks. </li>
</ul>


Japan Industrial Partners (JIP) will launch the Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) tender offer of JPY4,620 per share from 8 August to 20 September.
The Board has reaffirmed its recommendation to accept the offer. JIP’s inability to raise its bid is used as an excuse to ignore the material peer rerating and unattractive terms.
The 1Q results undermine the Board’s view of an overstated DCF and show its unwillingness to entertain a potential Kioxia merger as a superior alternative, increasing deal risks. 


Toshiba (6502 JP): Tender Offer Launches, 1Q Results Increase Deal Risks

Japan

Kurita Water Industries Ltd. manufactures, sells, and maintains water treatment equipment and systems.  The Company's products include water purification and waste water treatment equipment as well as soil remediation systems.  Kurita also manufactures and sells chemicals for water treatment related to sanitation, air-conditioning, and construction.

EBARA CORPORATION manufactures pneumatic and hydraulic pumps and related equipment.  The Company's products include fuel, oil, water, and firefighting pumps, as well as steam turbines and boilers.  Ebara Corporation also engineers garbage incinerators, smoke desulfurizers, and other products related to environmental technology.

IHI Corporation manufactures heavy machinery. The Company produces aircraft jet engines, rocket propulsion systems, and ships for military and commercial use. Ishikawajima-Harima also constructs petroleum refineries and nuclear power plants.

DAIFUKU CO., LTD. designs, manufactures, and sells material handling equipment such as automated storage systems, conveyors, and automatic sorters.  The Company's products are used for automation in manufacturing and distribution businesses.

Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, sells, and repairs construction machinery. The Company's products include hydraulic excavators, crawler cranes, wheel loaders, shield machines, and bulldozers. Hitachi Construction Machinery, a subsidiary of Hitachi, Ltd., markets its products worldwide through sales offices overseas.

Makita Corporation manufactures electric power tools, including battery-operated power tools, stationary wood working machines, pneumatic devices, and gardening tools.  The Company also produces power tool attachments and accessories and provides parts replacement and repair services.

SUMITOMO HEAVY INDUSTRIES, LTD. manufactures and markets heavy electric machinery.  The Company's operations include heavy machinery, shipbuilding, mass-production machinery, environmental equipment, and construction machinery divisions.  Sumitomo Heavy Industries also produces equipment for semiconductor and laser technologies.

Minebea Mitsumi manufactures and markets miniature and instrument ball bearings.  The Company also makes DC motors, servo motors, stepping motors, spindle motors, pivot assemblies, rod-end and spherical bearings, fasteners, and computer keyboards. Minebea Mitsumi has production facilities in Thailand and Singapore.

HOSHIZAKI ELECTRIC CORPORATION manufactures and sells commercial use kitchen equipment such as freezers, refrigerators, food/beverage dispensers.  The Company has sales subsidiaries across Japan as well as overseas.

DMG MORI CO., LTD. manufactures and markets machine tools and related products. The Company's product line includes numerical control (NC) and high-speed precision lathes, horizontal and vertical machining centers (MCs), and other stationary machine tools capable of performing various tasks.

Samsung Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. manufactures crude oil tankers, container vessels, bulk carriers, cruisers, and passenger ferries.  The Company also produces steel and bridge structures, and material handling equipment.  In addition, Samsung Heavy Industries provides civil engineering, architectural, and plant construction services.

Seatrium Ltd offers engineering solutions for the offshore, marine, and energy industries. The Company provides rigs and floaters, repairs and upgrades, offshore platforms, and specialized shipbuilding. Seatrium serves customers worldwide.

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Limited builds a wide range of ships. The Company produces a wide range of commercial vessels, mini bulk carriers, multi-purpose cargo vessels, containerships, chemical tankers, offshore supply vessels, rescue and salvage vessels, and lifting vessels.

AGCO Corporation manufactures and distributes agricultural equipment throughout the world.  The Company sells a range of agricultural equipment and related replacement parts, including tractors, combines, hay tools, sprayers, and forage equipment.  AGCO markets its products under a variety of brand names, including Massey Ferguson, AGCO, Tye, GLEANER, and Hesston.

Thermax Ltd manufactures equipment and machinery used to both produce and to conserve energy. The Company operates through a number of divisions, including Boilers, Heat Recovery Steam Generators, Water Treatment Plants and Air Pollution Control Equipment. In addition, Thermax  produces steam and gas turbines and diesel gensets through a number of strategic alliances.

Watts Water Technologies, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells a line of products to the water regulation and control markets.  The Company has manufacturing plants and distribution channels in the United States, Canada, and Europe, as well as a joint venture in The People's Republic of China.

Chart Industries, Inc. is a global manufacturer of equipment used in the production, storage, and end-use of hydrocarbon and industrial gases. The Company's products include vacuum-insulated containment vessels, heat exchangers, cold boxes, and other cryogenic components.

RBC Bearings Incorporated designs, manufactures, and markets bearing products. The Company offers precision plain, roller, cam followers, couplings, collars, locking, tool holders, shafts, pins, rods, tubes, and ball bearings. RBC Bearings serves industrial, aerospace, and defense markets worldwide.

Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co., Ltd.manufactures and markets construction machinery.  The Company's products include concrete machinery, cranes, road machinery, drilling equipment, and other heavy construction equipment.  Zoomlion also produces environmental machinery and satellite navigation products.

Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co Ltd develops, manufactures and sells high pressure tank, hydraulic components and hydraulic systems. The Company's main products include fuel tanks and non-standard cylinders for heavy equipment.

Jiangsu Hengli Highpressure Oil Cylinder (601100 CH)

Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd. designs, develops, and manufactures transport equipment and industrial heavy machinery for military and commercial use.  The Company produces ships, railroad cars, aircraft engines and parts, hydraulic and gas turbines, submarine engines, boilers, and industrial robots.  Kawasaki Heavy Industries offers engineering and construction services to industrial plants.

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Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP)

Toyota – Revving Up the Hydrogen Engine

Toyota has been working on not just fuel cells but also hydrogen engines and is now partnering with Mazda, Subaru, Yamaha and KHI to potentially...

Mio Kato

China Construction Machinery / HDT – 2024 Outlook

That said, with growth trend reversing since mid-2023 after 2-3 years of extraordinary growth, the way to overseas expansion will likely be bumpy...

CMB International

Ohayo Japan: Tech Leads US Equity Decline; JAPAN X: Softbank's ARM Done(Almost), PayPay IPO Next?

SPX declines lead by Tech; JAPAN: NKY Futs -0.6% Disc vs Cash; USDJPY 1471; Cabinet reshuffle day - changes in Defense and Foreign Affairs; GTX...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan: SPX Rebounds - Tesla Leads; JAPAN X: Japan Equities: Is This Rally Different?

SPX rebounds with Tesla leading; NKY Futs -0.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.6; JP yields rise; yen strengthens and Banks Rally as Ueda hints at...

Mark Chadwick

Toshiba (6502 JP): Tender Offer Launches, 1Q Results Increase Deal Risks

The 1Q results undermine the Board’s view of an overstated DCF and show its unwillingness to entertain a potential Kioxia merger as a superior...

Arun George

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