Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geo-energy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8717:1">Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP)</a> has seen its share price decline to multi-year lows in FY19 and it continues to tick lower into the final month of the year. Meanwhile, its US dollar-denominated 2022 bonds are now offering a Yield To Maturity over 25% highlighting that debt investors see this as a company in distress.In a recent analyst briefing management seemed extremely relax about its financial future almost ridiculing investors for their total misunderstanding of the company and its outlook.Question: Who will be right?Answer: The one who can predict the direction of coal prices from FY20 to FY22.If one assumes coal prices have hit bottom Geo's stock and bonds are a turbocharged way to make returns in the sector. Should coal prices consistently fall below 30 USD/ton (ICI4 coal) from FY20 to FY22 this would raise serious questions for Geo's equity holders. Geo's bondholders should be fine in anything but a total armageddon scenario.

Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP) has seen its share price decline to multi-year lows in FY19 and it continues to tick lower into the final month of the year. Meanwhile, its US dollar-denominated 2022 bonds are now offering a Yield To Maturity over 25% highlighting that debt investors see this as a company in distress.In a recent analyst briefing management seemed extremely relax about its financial future almost ridiculing investors for their total misunderstanding of the company and its outlook.Question: Who will be right?Answer: The one who can predict the direction of coal prices from FY20 to FY22.If one assumes coal prices have hit bottom Geo's stock and bonds are a turbocharged way to make returns in the sector. Should coal prices consistently fall below 30 USD/ton (ICI4 coal) from FY20 to FY22 this would raise serious questions for Geo's equity holders. Geo's bondholders should be fine in anything but a total armageddon scenario.

Geo Energy (GERL SP): Distressed Bonds and Share Price Versus Optimistic Management; Who Is Right?

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for November includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

   The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for November includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - November 2019 - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.
<ul>
<li><a href="#lucror-entity-19717" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gcl New Energy Holdings</a></li>
<li><a href="#lucror-entity-8717" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Geo Energy Resources</a></li>
<li><a href="https://foundry.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-rejeki-isman-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ)</a></li>
</ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Gcl New Energy Holdings
Geo Energy Resources
Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ)


Morning Views Asia: Gcl New Energy Holdings, Geo Energy Resources, Sritex

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on recent events in Indonesia that we believe will have an impact on offshore investor confidence. Among these are negative developments at the governmental level regarding the policing of corruption. We also feature a case study on the recent bond default by Delta Merlin Dunia, which highlights the problems inherent in governance with Indonesian corporates, particularly private firms. We believe that at the regulatory and corporate level there is often a capricious approach to governance, which is encouraged by a benign judicial system. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on recent events in Indonesia that we believe will have an impact on offshore investor confidence. Among these are negative developments at the governmental level regarding the policing of corruption. We also feature a case study on the recent bond default by Delta Merlin Dunia, which highlights the problems inherent in governance with Indonesian corporates, particularly private firms. We believe that at the regulatory and corporate level there is often a capricious approach to governance, which is encouraged by a benign judicial system.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - Corporate Governance And Corruption In Indonesia - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-433'>Fosun International</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-8717'>Geo Energy Resources</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-8258'>Japfa Comfeed Indonesia</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-7817'>Zoomlion Heavy Industry H</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Fosun InternationalGeo Energy ResourcesJapfa Comfeed IndonesiaZoomlion Heavy Industry H

Morning Views Asia: Fosun International, Geo Energy Resources, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia

Singapore

Geo Energy Resources Limited is a coal mining specialist based in Indonesia. The Company owns and operates coal mines.

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Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP)

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - November 2019 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for November includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: Gcl New Energy Holdings, Geo Energy Resources, Sritex

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - Corporate Governance And Corruption In Indonesia - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on recent events in Indonesia that we believe will have an impact on offshore investor...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: Fosun International, Geo Energy Resources, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Geo Energy (GERL SP): Distressed Bonds and Share Price Versus Optimistic Management; Who Is Right?

Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP) has seen its share price decline to multi-year lows in FY19 and it continues to tick lower into the final month of...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - November 2019 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for November includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: Gcl New Energy Holdings, Geo Energy Resources, Sritex

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - Corporate Governance And Corruption In Indonesia - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on recent events in Indonesia that we believe will have an impact on offshore investor...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: Fosun International, Geo Energy Resources, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics