Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Recent US economic data has been mixed on the inflation/growth front. </li>
<li>Fed dot plot and messaging at odds with market expectations.</li>
<li>The extent of rate cuts is correct, but timing is likely not.</li>
</ul>


Recent US economic data has been mixed on the inflation/growth front. 
Fed dot plot and messaging at odds with market expectations.
The extent of rate cuts is correct, but timing is likely not.


US Interest Rates and the Dollar and Impact on Markets

<ul>
<li>The December US Employment report shows a weaker outlook than the headline suggests.  </li>
<li>A loss of over 1.5 million full-time jobs in December.</li>
<li>Excluding government jobs, an exceptionally low number of new full-time jobs were created over the last year.</li>
</ul>


The December US Employment report shows a weaker outlook than the headline suggests.  
A loss of over 1.5 million full-time jobs in December.
Excluding government jobs, an exceptionally low number of new full-time jobs were created over the last year.


US Employment Data Confirms a Weakening Economy

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
Global Liquidity cycle is rising and set to hit a peak sometime around late-2025. This is bullish for risk assets</li>
<li>The timing of the recovery from October 2022 aligns with past cycles, but its scale is far less. Things need to speed up.</li>
<li>The US Fed has been a key culprit in keeping liquidity conditions too tight for too long. 2024 will see a significant ease from US policy-makers</li>
</ul>



Global Liquidity cycle is rising and set to hit a peak sometime around late-2025. This is bullish for risk assets
The timing of the recovery from October 2022 aligns with past cycles, but its scale is far less. Things need to speed up.
The US Fed has been a key culprit in keeping liquidity conditions too tight for too long. 2024 will see a significant ease from US policy-makers


Thinking About, Thinking About Central Banks ... And Liquidity

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>We’ll start today’s 5 things with a look at the central bank outlook for in 2024, then we’ll address the troubles for OPEC.</li><li>We move over to talk about China and afterwards Ukraine for some geopolitics.</li><li>Finally, we’ll end this year’s last 5 things with a crypto outlook.</li></ul>

We’ll start today’s 5 things with a look at the central bank outlook for in 2024, then we’ll address the troubles for OPEC.We move over to talk about China and afterwards Ukraine for some geopolitics.Finally, we’ll end this year’s last 5 things with a crypto outlook.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.</li><li>But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?</li><li>We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.</li></ul>

Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

United States

SPDR Gold Shares is an investment fund incorporated in the USA.  The investment objective of the Trust is for the Shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the Trust's expenses. The Trust holds gold and is expected from time to time to issue Baskets in exchange for deposits of gold and to distribute gold in connection with redemptions of Baskets.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US)

US Interest Rates and the Dollar and Impact on Markets

Recent mixed US economic data on inflation and growth, has reduced interest rate cut expectations but we believe the path to US lower interest...

Rikki Malik

US Employment Data Confirms a Weakening Economy

The December US Employment report reveals a bleaker outlook with a significant loss of full-time jobs and a low creation rate of new full-time...

Rikki Malik

Thinking About, Thinking About Central Banks ... And Liquidity

US Fed has been a key culprit in keeping liquidity conditions too tight, too long. 2024 will see major ease from US policy-makers. Global Liquidity...

Michael J. Howell

Five Things We Watch For In 2024

The thing to watch is probably employment numbers and once the labor markets start turning bad, expect CBs to cut in a hurry (especially if it is...

Steno Research

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Let’s run through each asset class to see where to put your eggs if a bull-steepening of the yield curve continues into 2024.

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US Interest Rates and the Dollar and Impact on Markets

Recent mixed US economic data on inflation and growth, has reduced interest rate cut expectations but we believe the path to US lower interest...

Rikki Malik

US Employment Data Confirms a Weakening Economy

​The December US Employment report reveals a bleaker outlook with a significant loss of full-time jobs and a low creation rate of new full-time...

Rikki Malik

Thinking About, Thinking About Central Banks ... And Liquidity

US Fed has been a key culprit in keeping liquidity conditions too tight, too long. 2024 will see major ease from US policy-makers. Global Liquidity...

Michael J. Howell

Five Things We Watch For In 2024

The thing to watch is probably employment numbers and once the labor markets start turning bad, expect CBs to cut in a hurry (especially if it is...

Steno Research

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Let’s run through each asset class to see where to put your eggs if a bull-steepening of the yield curve continues into 2024.

Steno Research

The December US Employment report reveals a bleaker outlook with a significant loss of full-time jobs and a low creation rate of new full-time...