IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-biogene-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35950:1" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene Holding (GBH HK)</a>, a leading professional skin care product manufacturer, is set to launch a US$500 million HKEx IPO.  </li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/giant-biogene-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:81963" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/giant-biogene-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:82037" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene IPO: The Bear Case</a>.</li>
<li>In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Giant Biogene's potential valuation range. </li>
</ul>



Giant Biogene Holding (GBH HK), a leading professional skin care product manufacturer, is set to launch a US$500 million HKEx IPO.  
We previously discussed the IPO in Giant Biogene IPO: The Bull Case and Giant Biogene IPO: The Bear Case.
In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Giant Biogene's potential valuation range. 


Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On 19 April, the US CDC stated that the national mask requirement on public transportation is no longer in effect in the United States.</li>
<li>The CDC lifting the mask mandate is a key catalyst and other major countries are likely to follow the US in the coming months. </li>
<li>Will the world likely to become more like Shanghai and enforce even greater lockdown policies or will they become more like the US and drop social distancing and mask mandates?  </li>
</ul>


On 19 April, the US CDC stated that the national mask requirement on public transportation is no longer in effect in the United States.
The CDC lifting the mask mandate is a key catalyst and other major countries are likely to follow the US in the coming months. 
Will the world likely to become more like Shanghai and enforce even greater lockdown policies or will they become more like the US and drop social distancing and mask mandates?  


CDC Ends Public Transportation Mask Mandate & Will the World Follow Shanghai or Vice Versa?

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
Our Q3-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market-cap-weighted average price return of 2% and a simple average decline of 0.2%.</li>
<li>
Out of the 34 stocks that appeared in our Q3-2021 screen, 15 stocks saw an average share price decline of 11.5%, whilst 19 stocks appreciated on average by 14%. The two biggest declining stock  were down 25% and 19% respectively.</li>
<li>Our Q4 2021 screen, with 38 names (up from 34 seen in Q3 and Q2 2021) delivers an interesting composition this quarter, </li>
<li>
As in the previous few quarters, we anticipate the possibility of a risk of deteriorating credit metrics during the next few quarters: Q4 2021’s Altman Z score rests at 1.23, which is just up on Q3 2021’s level of 1.19.</li>
</ul>



Our Q3-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market-cap-weighted average price return of 2% and a simple average decline of 0.2%.

Out of the 34 stocks that appeared in our Q3-2021 screen, 15 stocks saw an average share price decline of 11.5%, whilst 19 stocks appreciated on average by 14%. The two biggest declining stock  were down 25% and 19% respectively.
Our Q4 2021 screen, with 38 names (up from 34 seen in Q3 and Q2 2021) delivers an interesting composition this quarter, 

As in the previous few quarters, we anticipate the possibility of a risk of deteriorating credit metrics during the next few quarters: Q4 2021’s Altman Z score rests at 1.23, which is just up on Q3 2021’s level of 1.19.


Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

<h2>Eight new names, SoftBank remains for the 3rd quarter running</h2>
<ul>
<li>
OurQ2-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market cap-weighted average price decline of 2%. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted a decline of 1.7% over the same period. The stock quality of our Q2 2021 decreased 2.4 points or 3.8% over the period. Within the mix of 34 stocks in our Q2 2021 (May) list 19 posted negative performance, with an average decline of 14.1%.</li>
<li>
At a static number of 34 stocks our Q3 2021 screen, delivers an interesting composition this quarter, with eight (8) new names and strong representation from Hong Kong in terms of geography and Industrials and Basic Materials from a sector perspective. This suggests that the “reopening of the economy” trade may have run its course for now.</li>
<li>Our Q3 2021 screen shows a further reduction in average stock rank (a reading on relative quality amongst the broad market peers with 100 being the highest) to 61 from 65.18 in Q2 2021.</li>
<li>
Stock specific focus: We discuss why SoftBank stands out as a stock that presents with additional risk. We also discuss the fact that whilst there is a high representation of Industrials in the list, within this list, there are several names that may warrant not being too bearish towards.</li>
</ul>

Eight new names, SoftBank remains for the 3rd quarter running


OurQ2-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market cap-weighted average price decline of 2%. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted a decline of 1.7% over the same period. The stock quality of our Q2 2021 decreased 2.4 points or 3.8% over the period. Within the mix of 34 stocks in our Q2 2021 (May) list 19 posted negative performance, with an average decline of 14.1%.

At a static number of 34 stocks our Q3 2021 screen, delivers an interesting composition this quarter, with eight (8) new names and strong representation from Hong Kong in terms of geography and Industrials and Basic Materials from a sector perspective. This suggests that the “reopening of the economy” trade may have run its course for now.
Our Q3 2021 screen shows a further reduction in average stock rank (a reading on relative quality amongst the broad market peers with 100 being the highest) to 61 from 65.18 in Q2 2021.

Stock specific focus: We discuss why SoftBank stands out as a stock that presents with additional risk. We also discuss the fact that whilst there is a high representation of Industrials in the list, within this list, there are several names that may warrant not being too bearish towards.


Screening the Silk Road: Q3 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

HK Inno.N's offering price got fixed at ₩59,000, the upper end of the indicative price band, implying a market cap of ₩1.7T. There is no change in the offering volume.







Indicative price band
Low
High (final)


Price
₩50,000
₩59,000


Base deal size
₩505.9B
₩596.9B


- Institutional allotment
₩278.2B
₩328.3B


Implied market cap
₩1,445.2B
₩1,705.4B


- Discount
29.54%
16.85%


EV/EBITDA
15.77x
18.02x

Source: DART

The institutional subscription competition rate is 1,871 to 1, nearly hitting the record holder SKIET's 1,883 to 1. In this bookbuilding, it seems that local institutions have been overbetting quite aggressively. In particular, it seems that local publicly raised funds with long-term holding tendencies have been active in securing the stocks. This proves that many local institutional investors felt that this IPO was price attractive enough for long-term holding.









By investor type
Institution
%
Demand
%


Local publicly raised funds
713
43.82%
4,795,649,600
46.05%


Local brokerages/investment advisories
31
1.91%
202,086,750
1.94%


Local pensions, funds managing proprietary assets, banks, and insurance companies
220
13.52%
1,434,513,850
13.78%


Local others (mostly discretionary investment companies - local hedge funds))
392
24.09%
2,678,313,000
25.72%


Foreign (foreign IPO funds &amp; hedge funds)
74
4.55%
79,187,194
0.76%


Foreign others (mostly local hot money)
197
12.11%
1,223,144,000
11.75%


Total
1,627
100.00%
10,412,894,394
100.00%


Subscription rate
1,871.36

Source: DART

The "Unspecified" category usually indicates that they want the shares above the high end.With that in mind, about one-third have gone for the upper end or above. The remaining two-thirds selected 75-100% of the upper end. All of the orders are priced at 75-100% of the upper end or higher. So, yes, we can say the institutional pricing is quite aggressive.









By price
Institution
%
Demand
%


Above high end
536
32.94%
3,597,972,500
34.55%


75-100% of high end
1,061
65.21%
6,630,326,894
63.67%


50-75% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


0-25% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


75-100% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


50-75% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


0-25% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Low end or below
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Unspecified
30
1.84%
184,595,000
1.77%


Total
1,627
100.00%
10,412,894,394
100.00%

Source: DART



HK Inno.N Bookbuilding Results: Subscription/Lockup Orders in Detail

South Korea

Cosmax, Inc. is a cosmetics manufacturer. The Company develops and produces a variety of cosmetics for men and women, such as basic and special skin care, makeup, hair care, and other beauty products. Cosmax manufactures its products on original equipment manufacturing (OEM) basis.

Cosmecca Korea Co., Ltd. develops and manufactures cosmetics. The Company specializes in research and development of cosmetics. Cosmecca Korea serves customers in Korea.

Kolmar Korea Holdings Co.,Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company through its subsidiaries, provide cosmetics manufacturing, health food manufacturing, pharmaceuticals development, and other services. Kolmar Korea Holdings offers services in Korea.

Hankook Cosmetics Manufacturing Co Ltd manufactures and sells a variety of cosmetics and toiletries, such as makeup, skin care, body care, and hair care products for menand women.  The Company markets its products under the brand names Calli, Idem, Elesis, Ossion, and Pamess.

Hankook Cosmetics Manufacturing (003350 KS)

NeoPharm Co., Ltd. develops and manufactures skin care goods for dried skin and atopic dermatitis.  The Company's main products include skin cleaning cream, body lotion, and skin care cosmetics.

Able C&C Co., Ltd. develops and manufactures cosmetic products. The Company's products include makeup, skin care, and hair care, and body care.

It's Hanbul Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets personal care items. The Company produces cosmetics, make-up tools, hair & body products, and skin care products.

Tonymoly Co., Ltd. manufactures, markets, and distributes beauty products.  The Company produces cosmetics, skin care, hair care, and body care products.

LG H&H Co., Ltd. manufactures and distributes cosmetics. The Company produces whoo, o hui, sum 37, basic cosmetics, color cosmetics, and other related products. LG H&H also produces toothpaste, soap, detergents, healthy, personal care, and refreshing products.

AMOREPACIFIC Group is an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, produce cosmetics and toiletries.

Herbalife Ltd. is a global nutrition company that sells weight management, healthy meals and snacks, sports and fitness, energy and targeted nutritional products as well as personal care products. The Company distributes and sells its products through a network of independent distributors, using the direct selling channel.

USANA Health Sciences, Inc. develops, manufactures, and markets nutritionals, personal care, and weight management products.  The Company's products are sold directly to preferred customers and distributors throughout the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and Hong Kong.

Jamieson Wellness Inc., doing business as Jamieson Vitamins, develops, manufactures, and markets natural health products. The Company offers vitamins, minerals, and supplement products, as well as over-the-counter remedies and sports nutrition products. Jamieson Vitamins serves customers worldwide.

Blackmores Limited manufactures and markets vitamin, herbal, mineral supplements and natural skin and hair treatment products in Australia and New Zealand. These products are supplied to the over the counter retail market and to health care professionals. The Company also has a line of natural beauty and aromatherapy products and its products are distributed in South East Asia.

Microbio Co., Ltd. applies symbiotic fermentation technology to develop botanical drug. The Company's products include clinically proven botanical drugs, pharmaceutically active ingredients, and nutrient supplements.

Best World International Limited sources, formulates, brands, and distributes a range of health and lifestyle products under the BWL, Avance, DORS, DR's Secret, and DRs Seager brand names.  The Company also distributes a range of third-party cosmetics and skin care products under the brand C'bon.

Milbon Co., Ltd. manufactures hair care products for beauty salons.  The Company produces chemicals for permanents, hair coloring, shampoos, rinses, and hair growth stimulant products.

Noevir Holdings Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells a variety of cosmetic products. The Company's products include skin care and make-up.  Noevir also manufactures and sells medicines, nutritional supplements and apparel.

Ontex Group NV. produces disposable personal hygiene solutions. The Company's products cater to babies, women and senior adults.

EIS Eczacibasi Ilac Sanayi ve Finansal Yatirimlar Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. produces and markets pharmaceuticals, veterinary products, hospital equipment, and cosmetics. The Company's products include cephalosporin and penicillin. The Company exports its products to the Middle East, Russian Federation, Central Asia, Eastern Europe and EU countries.

Kolmar Korea Co., Ltd. manufactures and distributes personal care products. The Company produces cosmetics. Kolmar Korea also produces medicine and healthcare products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Kolmar Korea (161890 KS)

Giant Biogene IPO: Valuation First Look

Giant Biogene will launch its US$500 million HKEx IPO this week. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at its potential...

Arun George

CDC Ends Public Transportation Mask Mandate & Will the World Follow Shanghai or Vice Versa?

The CDC lifting the mask mandate is a key catalyst and other major countries are likely to follow the US in the coming months.

Douglas Kim

Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

As we move through into Q1 2022, we expect to see volatility around highly priced & leveraged names. This screen is a key starting point towards...

David Lepper

Screening the Silk Road: Q3 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

Screening the Silk Road Q3 2021: Asia Pac High-risk names to avoid screening is out now. Eight new names, despite being down 23%, SoftBank remains...

David Lepper

HK Inno.N Bookbuilding Results: Subscription/Lockup Orders in Detail

HK Inno.N's bookbuilding results are out at DART. This post details the subscription and lockup orders by each investor type.

Sanghyun Park

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)