Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

Our bearish outlook for 2016 predicated on the rising risk of a “sudden stop” for China and uncontrolled FX depreciation across EM is unfortunately starting to play out; although markets currently feel very oversold and could rally sharply over the short term, we believe that there is further downside for EM equities in absolute and relative terms over the remainder of the year.

Our bearish outlook for 2016 predicated on the rising risk of a “sudden stop” for China and uncontrolled FX depreciation across EM is unfortunately starting to play out; although markets currently feel very oversold and could rally sharply over the short term, we believe that there is further downside for EM equities in absolute and relative terms over the remainder of the year.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<h2>THE BACKGROUND</h2><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19603" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603">Yahoo Japan Corp</a>  (36.4% owned by Softbank and 35.5% owned by Yahoo Inc of the US) announced after the close today that it would launch a tender offer from December 16 to February 3 2016 to buy between 2/3 and 100% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19139" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19139">Ikyu Corp</a> , a leading Japanese online hotel, resort, and restaurant reservation booking network, at a 42% premium to last trade, spending JPY 100.2bn yen. President Masafumi Mori founded Ikyu's predecessor company 17yrs ago, launched ikyu.com in 2000, and owns 41.17%…

THE BACKGROUNDYahoo Japan Corp  (36.4% owned by Softbank and 35.5% owned by Yahoo Inc of the US) announced after the close today that it would launch a tender offer from December 16 to February 3 2016 to buy between 2/3 and 100% of Ikyu Corp , a leading Japanese online hotel, resort, and restaurant reservation booking network, at a 42% premium to last trade, spending JPY 100.2bn yen. President Masafumi Mori founded Ikyu's predecessor company 17yrs ago, launched ikyu.com in 2000, and owns 41.17%…

Differentiated global TMT & Internet Research

New Street Research Insights

New Street Research

Research is provided by our team of experienced analysts. Our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focused on fundamentals and valuation of telecoms and internet names globally. New Street is headquartered in London with offices in New York, Singapore and Australia. 

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
Global Emerging Market Telecoms
Japan Telecoms
Asian Internet
Pan European Healthcare
US Healthcare
Japanese Healthcare

We also provide debt research on:
Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

Equity Bottom-Up

We believe JD.com is set for further gains. The company aims to grow at 2x the market rate and currently is exceeding this comfortably. The strong relationship with Tencent is helping to drive the business and is benefiting both parties.JD.com relies on its warehousing capacity to offer value to merchants. Speed to delivery is a key advantage as JD.com has been investing in warehousing an d logistics for over 5 years.The key measures to watch going forward will be growth in GMV and a move to positive Ebitda margins from 2015. There have been concerns at the distance to profitability but we believe JD.com is building a strong sustainable business and will eventually generate significant profits.&nbsp;

We believe JD.com is set for further gains. The company aims to grow at 2x the market rate and currently is exceeding this comfortably. The strong relationship with Tencent is helping to drive the business and is benefiting both parties.JD.com relies on its warehousing capacity to offer value to merchants. Speed to delivery is a key advantage as JD.com has been investing in warehousing an d logistics for over 5 years.The key measures to watch going forward will be growth in GMV and a move to positive Ebitda margins from 2015. There have been concerns at the distance to profitability but we believe JD.com is building a strong sustainable business and will eventually generate significant profits.&nbsp;

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We have earlier covered Xinyi Solar's <a href="http://www.smartkarma.com/insights/xinyi-solar-968-hk-rapid-growth-set-to-continue-take-the-deal" target="_blank">US$150m</a> and <a href="http://www.smartkarma.com/insights/xinyi-solar-968-hk-policy-support-remains-strong-momentum-likely-to-continue-take-the-deal" target="_blank">US$70m</a> placement for the development in solar farm and its Malaysia PV glass plant. Flat Glass, the key competitor of Xinyi, is said to be raising US$200m in an upcoming IPO. We think it is interesting to get the latest feel of the industry dynamics.We spoke to Xinyi Solar's management recently, to understand the the latest industry dynamics and how the company is positioned for the tailwind.In this insight, we cover the following topics:<ul><li>Recent promotional effort and policy changes by Chinese government</li><li>Industry players' reaction and observation</li><li>How Xinyi maintain its leadership in PV glass and diversifies into the downstream</li></ul>More fold below...

We have earlier covered Xinyi Solar's US$150m and US$70m placement for the development in solar farm and its Malaysia PV glass plant. Flat Glass, the key competitor of Xinyi, is said to be raising US$200m in an upcoming IPO. We think it is interesting to get the latest feel of the industry dynamics.We spoke to Xinyi Solar's management recently, to understand the the latest industry dynamics and how the company is positioned for the tailwind.In this insight, we cover the following topics:Recent promotional effort and policy changes by Chinese governmentIndustry players' reaction and observationHow Xinyi maintain its leadership in PV glass and diversifies into the downstreamMore fold below...

Xinyi Solar: post deal call with management. Where the industry and the company are heading?

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

&nbsp;The Wall Street Journal has reported that Tencent is 'near a deal to invest $1 billion in China's biggest online provider of on-demand services, as part of a new fundraising round that could value the startup at $20 billion'.Tencent investor relations has refused to comment on this rumour. We do not think this is a surprise to the market, since MeituanDianping is the key O2O platform for Tencent to compete with Nuomi, owned by Baidu. Tencent already owned a 20% stake in Dianping before Meituan and Dianping's merger, and this further investment will help Tencent to gain further control over Meituan-Dianping.This comes just after the Ctrip-Qunar transaction, in which Baidu became the largest shareholder of Ctrip, the largest online travel agency in China, and in which Qunar merged with Ctrip. We believe the O2O war has just begun, with China's three biggest Internet giants having all launched or acquired relevant platforms and considering O2O as their next key growth driverAnalyst:&nbsp;Michael Wu, CAIA &amp;&nbsp;Daniel Mueller

&nbsp;The Wall Street Journal has reported that Tencent is 'near a deal to invest $1 billion in China's biggest online provider of on-demand services, as part of a new fundraising round that could value the startup at $20 billion'.Tencent investor relations has refused to comment on this rumour. We do not think this is a surprise to the market, since MeituanDianping is the key O2O platform for Tencent to compete with Nuomi, owned by Baidu. Tencent already owned a 20% stake in Dianping before Meituan and Dianping's merger, and this further investment will help Tencent to gain further control over Meituan-Dianping.This comes just after the Ctrip-Qunar transaction, in which Baidu became the largest shareholder of Ctrip, the largest online travel agency in China, and in which Qunar merged with Ctrip. We believe the O2O war has just begun, with China's three biggest Internet giants having all launched or acquired relevant platforms and considering O2O as their next key growth driverAnalyst:&nbsp;Michael Wu, CAIA &amp;&nbsp;Daniel Mueller

Tencent Rumoured to Invest $1 Billion in Newly Merged Meituan-Dianping; the War Has Just Begun

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)

China and the EM Ugly Contest

Our bearish outlook for 2016 predicated on the rising risk of a “sudden stop” for China and uncontrolled FX depreciation across EM is unfortunately...

John-Paul Smith

Yahoo Japan to Buy Ikyu

THE BACKGROUNDYahoo Japan Corp (36.4% owned by Softbank and 35.5% owned by Yahoo Inc of the US) announced after the close today that it would...

Travis Lundy

JD.com: Internet Growth Powerhouse

We believe JD.com is set for further gains. The company aims to grow at 2x the market rate and currently is exceeding this comfortably. The strong...

New Street Research

Xinyi Solar: post deal call with management. Where the industry and the company are heading?

We have earlier covered Xinyi Solar's US$150m and US$70m placement for the development in solar farm and its Malaysia PV glass plant. Flat Glass,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tencent Rumoured to Invest $1 Billion in Newly Merged Meituan-Dianping; the War Has Just Begun

The Wall Street Journal has reported that Tencent is 'near a deal to invest $1 billion in China's biggest online provider of on-demand services,...

Morningstar, Inc.

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