Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong><em>*Results Deteriorating As Distractions Mount: </em></strong>Tencent Holdings’ (700.HK) [Tencent] 2Q21 GAAP net income declined CNY 5.2 bn (10.8%) on a linked quarter basis – and were of poor quality. Results were challenged by the following: cost of revenue increase; operating expense increase; losses in associates; higher impairment charges; and weaker online games. Were it not for the artificially lower tax rate, results would have been even more challenged; and     </p><p><strong><em>*Elephants In The Room: </em></strong>Mainland China's crackdown on capital markets has rapidly expanded under the broad narrative of "financial stability". We have already witnessed fines at Tencent, new user WeChat suspensions,  and Tencent may have to give up its exclusive music rights and possibly dispose of Kuwo and Kugou. Further, there no doubt that Tencent will also follow Alibaba Group (BABA.US) [Alibaba] in their formation of a financial holding company. Its pretty surprising that Tencent refuses to discuss these matters.   </p>

*Results Deteriorating As Distractions Mount: Tencent Holdings’ (700.HK) [Tencent] 2Q21 GAAP net income declined CNY 5.2 bn (10.8%) on a linked quarter basis – and were of poor quality. Results were challenged by the following: cost of revenue increase; operating expense increase; losses in associates; higher impairment charges; and weaker online games. Were it not for the artificially lower tax rate, results would have been even more challenged; and     *Elephants In The Room: Mainland China's crackdown on capital markets has rapidly expanded under the broad narrative of "financial stability". We have already witnessed fines at Tencent, new user WeChat suspensions,  and Tencent may have to give up its exclusive music rights and possibly dispose of Kuwo and Kugou. Further, there no doubt that Tencent will also follow Alibaba Group (BABA.US) [Alibaba] in their formation of a financial holding company. Its pretty surprising that Tencent refuses to discuss these matters.   

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>The real main business, social entertainment, grew by only 7.4% YoY.</li>
<li>The paying user base continued shrinking.</li>
<li>Compared to Kuaishou, we believe the stock has a downside of 22%.</li>
<li>About the minor business, music, please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tencent-music-tme-penalty-not-fatal-but-music-market-bad-enough" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:55447" rel="noopener">Tencent Music (TME): Penalty Not Fatal, But Music Market Bad Enough</a>.</li>
</ul>


The real main business, social entertainment, grew by only 7.4% YoY.
The paying user base continued shrinking.
Compared to Kuaishou, we believe the stock has a downside of 22%.
About the minor business, music, please see Tencent Music (TME): Penalty Not Fatal, But Music Market Bad Enough.


Tencent Music (TME): 2Q21, Slow Main Business

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

EDDA Healthcare and Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<p>EDDA Healthcare and Technology Holding Limited (EDDA), offers innovative intelligent solutions to enable precision surgery. It aims to raise up to US$300m in its Hong Kong IPO.</p><p>EDDA provides a precision surgery solution portfolio, consisting of surgical robots series IQQA-Guide, and a portfolio of precision surgery planning software, including IQQA-3D. It has also established a 3D precision surgery digital solution cloud platform in China (IQQA Cloud Platform) which integrates functions of IQQA-3D and enables physicians to collaborate remotely in real time.</p><p>Through IQQA-3D and IQQA Cloud Platform, it has assisted in over 70,000 precision surgeries in China across 60 of the top 100 hospitals. Its precision surgery planning software is also registered in the United states. </p><p>It is the largest player in China’s precision surgical planning market for thoracic and abdominal applications, with over a one-third market share, in terms of surgical cases completed in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.</p>

EDDA Healthcare and Technology Holding Limited (EDDA), offers innovative intelligent solutions to enable precision surgery. It aims to raise up to US$300m in its Hong Kong IPO.EDDA provides a precision surgery solution portfolio, consisting of surgical robots series IQQA-Guide, and a portfolio of precision surgery planning software, including IQQA-3D. It has also established a 3D precision surgery digital solution cloud platform in China (IQQA Cloud Platform) which integrates functions of IQQA-3D and enables physicians to collaborate remotely in real time.Through IQQA-3D and IQQA Cloud Platform, it has assisted in over 70,000 precision surgeries in China across 60 of the top 100 hospitals. Its precision surgery planning software is also registered in the United states. It is the largest player in China’s precision surgical planning market for thoracic and abdominal applications, with over a one-third market share, in terms of surgical cases completed in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.

EDDA Healthcare Pre-IPO - RoboDoc - Has Been Around for a While but Is Just Getting the Robo Going

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<p>Most Chinese companies will announce their half yearly results in the next couple of weeks. Some will announce their interim dividends as well.</p><p>With most of the dividends for 2021 having already gone ex, we see little upside/downside in the HSCEI 2021 dividend futures contract.</p><p>The HSCEI 2022 dividend futures are another story though. There are a lot of potential events that could change the fair value of the futures. Taking into account all the changes expected to take place by the December rebalance, we see the current dividend futures market trading around 6 index points higher than our fair value. In terms of future events, we find a lot more potential negative catalysts as compared to positive catalysts.</p><p>We recommend selling the HSCEI 2022 dividend futures at 245 or higher (equivalent to around -25 on the HSCEI 2021/22 dividend steepener) and buying the dividend futures at 230 or lower. These estimates will change as the CNYHKD fx rates move around and some of the catalysts come to pass.</p>

Most Chinese companies will announce their half yearly results in the next couple of weeks. Some will announce their interim dividends as well.With most of the dividends for 2021 having already gone ex, we see little upside/downside in the HSCEI 2021 dividend futures contract.The HSCEI 2022 dividend futures are another story though. There are a lot of potential events that could change the fair value of the futures. Taking into account all the changes expected to take place by the December rebalance, we see the current dividend futures market trading around 6 index points higher than our fair value. In terms of future events, we find a lot more potential negative catalysts as compared to positive catalysts.We recommend selling the HSCEI 2022 dividend futures at 245 or higher (equivalent to around -25 on the HSCEI 2021/22 dividend steepener) and buying the dividend futures at 230 or lower. These estimates will change as the CNYHKD fx rates move around and some of the catalysts come to pass.

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Fair Value & Catalysts Point to Downside for 2022

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhou-intl-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10415:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/topsports-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28153:1" rel="noopener">Topsports International (6110 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinyi-solar-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:318:1" rel="noopener">Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>. Shorts decreased in the Communication Services, Information Technology, Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary and Financials sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaskawa-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2458:1" rel="noopener">Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eneos-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:638:1" rel="noopener">ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sharp-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:391:1" rel="noopener">Sharp Corp (6753 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nagoya-railroad-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8652:1" rel="noopener">Nagoya Railroad (9048 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanken-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6073:1" rel="noopener">Sanken Electric (6707 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anritsu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3700:1" rel="noopener">Anritsu Corp (6754 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thk-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19572:1" rel="noopener">Thk Co Ltd (6481 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-yusen-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12285:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Yusen Kk (9101 JP)</a>. Shorts increased in the Real Estate, Industrials, Energy and Consumer Discretionary sectors, and decreased in the Financials sector.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kumho-petro-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2014:1" rel="noopener">Kumho Petro Chemical (011780 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ncsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5169:1" rel="noopener">NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-display-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7145:1" rel="noopener">LG Display (034220 KS)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-biologics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22932:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Biologics Co., (207940 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-rotem-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1554:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Rotem Company (064350 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-household-health-care" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6501:1" rel="noopener">LG Household &amp; Health Care (051900 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amorepacific-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20854:1" rel="noopener">Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS)</a>.</p></div><div><p>In Taiwan, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/winbond-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9177:1" rel="noopener">Winbond Electronics (2344 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yang-ming-marine-transport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8502:1" rel="noopener">Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elite-semiconductor-memory-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9373:1" rel="noopener">Elite Semiconductor Memory Technology (3006 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-cement" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19736:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Cement (1101 TT)</a> while shorts covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergreen-marine-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1" rel="noopener">Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6450:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-cement-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15350:1" rel="noopener">Asia Cement (1102 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fubon-financial-holding-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11869:1" rel="noopener">Fubon Financial Holding Co (2881 TT)</a>.     </p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on HKEX (388 HK), Geely Auto (175 HK), Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK), China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK) and Topsports International (6110 HK) while there was short covering on Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK), AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK), JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) and Alibaba Group (9988 HK). Shorts decreased in the Communication Services, Information Technology, Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary and Financials sectors.In Japan, stocks increased on Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP), ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), Sharp Corp (6753 JP), Nagoya Railroad (9048 JP) and Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP) while there was short covering on Sanken Electric (6707 JP), Anritsu Corp (6754 JP), SBI Holdings (8473 JP), Thk Co Ltd (6481 JP) and Nippon Yusen Kk (9101 JP). Shorts increased in the Real Estate, Industrials, Energy and Consumer Discretionary sectors, and decreased in the Financials sector.In Korea, shorts increased on Kumho Petro Chemical (011780 KS), Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS), Kakao Corp (035720 KS), NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS) and LG Display (034220 KS) while shorts were covered on Celltrion Inc (068270 KS), Samsung Biologics Co., (207940 KS), Hyundai Rotem Company (064350 KS), LG Household &amp; Health Care (051900 KS) and Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS).In Taiwan, shorts increased on TSMC (2330 TT), Winbond Electronics (2344 TT), Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT), Elite Semiconductor Memory Technology (3006 TT) and Taiwan Cement (1101 TT) while shorts covered on Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT), Mediatek Inc (2454 TT), United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT), Asia Cement (1102 TT) and Fubon Financial Holding Co (2881 TT).     

Asia Shorts: HKEX, Mengniu, Kuaishou, AIA, Sharp, Yaskawa, Kumho, HMC, Celltrion, TSMC, Yang Ming

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)

Tencent Holdings – Pig Piling

TENCENT: Tencent's QOQ 2Q21 income declined 10.8% due to cost of revenue and opex increases; associate losses; higher impairments; and weak online...

Thomas J. Monaco

Tencent Music (TME): 2Q21, Slow Main Business

The real main business, social entertainment, grew by only 7.4% YoY. The paying user base continued shrinking. Compared to Kuaishou, we believe the...

Ming Lu

EDDA Healthcare Pre-IPO - RoboDoc - Has Been Around for a While but Is Just Getting the Robo Going

EDDA Healthcare and Technology Holding Limited (EDDA), offers innovative intelligent solutions to enable precision surgery. It aims to raise up to...

Sumeet Singh

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Fair Value & Catalysts Point to Downside for 2022

We see around 6 points of downside on the HSCEI 2022 dividend futures from the last traded price. There are more negative catalysts for the 2022...

Brian Freitas

Asia Shorts: HKEX, Mengniu, Kuaishou, AIA, Sharp, Yaskawa, Kumho, HMC, Celltrion, TSMC, Yang Ming

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

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