'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• THE POST-COVID ROTATION •</strong></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/191/288/original/2021-02-28_08-38-14.png?1614469105" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="191288"></figure><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/191/290/original/2021-02-28_08-57-32.png?1614470265" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="191290"></figure></section></section><section class="figure"><div style="text-align: center;" class="content-caption"> Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></section><p><strong>THE 2021 ROTATION ACCELERATES</strong> - As we noted in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-the-post-covid-rotation-from-growth-to-value-begins-02-05-results-revisions-update" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47877" rel="noopener">The Post-COVID Rotation from Growth to Value Begins</a>, the Japanese equity market has been led by overvalued and overvalued for most of the last year overbought high-quality growth companies in the <strong>Technology Hardware</strong>, <strong>Electrical Equipment</strong>, <strong>Internet</strong>, and <strong>Healthcare</strong> Sectors. These companies were deemed to be 'COVID-resistant' and were consistently well-bid regardless of price. The stocks leading this 'charge' were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 (2413 JP),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec (6920 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monotaro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15441:1" rel="noopener">MonotaRO (3064 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugai-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4489:1" rel="noopener">Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec (6594 JP)</a>, while the only cyclical Sector that has seen a major recovery was Energy. Meanwhile, shares in domestically-orientated Sectors and companies heavily exposed to COVID-related delines in business activity languished despite valuations reaching ten or twenty-year lows. </p><p><strong>PEAKED?</strong> - Over the last twenty trading days during which TOPIX reached 1,974.99. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> breached 30,000, many of these market leaders have seen a significant correction, while the market has rotated into domestic, cyclical, and financial Sectors - as illustrated by our Sector Relative Price Score timelines in the chart above. In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> Section below, we will review the current market technicals after Friday's 4% N225 decline and look at the leading stocks on both 'sides' of this rotation trade.</p>

• THE POST-COVID ROTATION • Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsTHE 2021 ROTATION ACCELERATES - As we noted in The Post-COVID Rotation from Growth to Value Begins, the Japanese equity market has been led by overvalued and overvalued for most of the last year overbought high-quality growth companies in the Technology Hardware, Electrical Equipment, Internet, and Healthcare Sectors. These companies were deemed to be 'COVID-resistant' and were consistently well-bid regardless of price. The stocks leading this 'charge' were M3 (2413 JP),Lasertec (6920 JP), MonotaRO (3064 JP), Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP), and Nidec (6594 JP), while the only cyclical Sector that has seen a major recovery was Energy. Meanwhile, shares in domestically-orientated Sectors and companies heavily exposed to COVID-related delines in business activity languished despite valuations reaching ten or twenty-year lows. PEAKED? - Over the last twenty trading days during which TOPIX reached 1,974.99. The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) breached 30,000, many of these market leaders have seen a significant correction, while the market has rotated into domestic, cyclical, and financial Sectors - as illustrated by our Sector Relative Price Score timelines in the chart above. In the DETAIL Section below, we will review the current market technicals after Friday's 4% N225 decline and look at the leading stocks on both 'sides' of this rotation trade.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Post-COVID Rotation Accelerates

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<p>Saturday's 7.1 earthquake in Japan could have caused important supply disruptions for semiconductors.  We reached out to over a dozen companies to check their status, and those who replied indicated that there was little impact.  Still, the automotive sector has reason to be nervous.</p>

Saturday's 7.1 earthquake in Japan could have caused important supply disruptions for semiconductors.  We reached out to over a dozen companies to check their status, and those who replied indicated that there was little impact.  Still, the automotive sector has reason to be nervous.

Japan Quake and Chip Shortages, Tough on Auto?

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Event-Driven

<p>It was reported by several news media outlets including the Nikkei, Bloomberg and Reuters that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)</a>  is planning to sell a 60% stake in its overseas home appliance business to major Turkish consumer electronics maker Arcelik AS.</p><p>The two companies are in advanced talks and an agreement is expected to be reached over the next few weeks. The deal could be valued at around US$300-500m.</p><p>Hitachi’s home appliance business generates only about 20% of its revenues from overseas markets whereas China and Southeast Asia accounting for bulk of the overseas revenues.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcelik-as" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24759:1" rel="noopener">Arcelik AS (ARCLK TI)</a> , together with its subsidiaries produces and sells consumer durable goods and consumer electronics in Turkey and internationally. Its products are sold under Arcelik, Beko, Blomberg, Arctic, Leisure, Defy and several other brands.</p><p>By partnering up with Arcelik, Hitachi aims to expand the sale of its consumer appliances products in markets such as Europe and Africa, where Arcelik has a strong foothold in these markets.</p>

It was reported by several news media outlets including the Nikkei, Bloomberg and Reuters that Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)  is planning to sell a 60% stake in its overseas home appliance business to major Turkish consumer electronics maker Arcelik AS.The two companies are in advanced talks and an agreement is expected to be reached over the next few weeks. The deal could be valued at around US$300-500m.Hitachi’s home appliance business generates only about 20% of its revenues from overseas markets whereas China and Southeast Asia accounting for bulk of the overseas revenues.Arcelik AS (ARCLK TI) , together with its subsidiaries produces and sells consumer durable goods and consumer electronics in Turkey and internationally. Its products are sold under Arcelik, Beko, Blomberg, Arctic, Leisure, Defy and several other brands.By partnering up with Arcelik, Hitachi aims to expand the sale of its consumer appliances products in markets such as Europe and Africa, where Arcelik has a strong foothold in these markets.

Hitachi to Sell Overseas Home Appliance Business; Attempt to Reach Its Mid-Term Management Targets

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

<p>When the surprise news that Hitachi was looking to sell down its stake in HCM broke, Hitachi Metals also fell 6.2% on the news. We said at the time that we believed Hitachi Metals was likely to be sold to an acquirer rather than just deconsolidated and the Nikkei has reported that both Bain and KKR are interested in the company. This is positive for the stock in our view, even more so than interest from a strategic acquirer as we believe it opens up various options.</p>

When the surprise news that Hitachi was looking to sell down its stake in HCM broke, Hitachi Metals also fell 6.2% on the news. We said at the time that we believed Hitachi Metals was likely to be sold to an acquirer rather than just deconsolidated and the Nikkei has reported that both Bain and KKR are interested in the company. This is positive for the stock in our view, even more so than interest from a strategic acquirer as we believe it opens up various options.

Hitachi Metals – Acquisition by a PE Fund Could Unlock Value

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Last Week in Event SPACE: Coca Cola Amatil, Shimachu, AMP, Hitachi, Jardines, Evergrande

Japan

Hitachi, Ltd. manufactures communications and electronic equipment, heavy electrical and industrial machinery, and consumer electronics.  The Company's diverse product line ranges from nuclear power systems to kitchen appliances. Hitachi also operates subsidiaries in the wire and cable, metal, and chemical industries.

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Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Post-COVID Rotation Accelerates

Over the last 20 trading days during which TOPIX reached 1,974.99, many market leaders have seen a significant correction, and there has been a...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Quake and Chip Shortages, Tough on Auto?

Will Saturday's Japan earthquake further disrupt the semiconductor supply chain? Early reports seem tame enough, but automobile manufacturers are...

Jim Handy

Hitachi to Sell Overseas Home Appliance Business; Attempt to Reach Its Mid-Term Management Targets

It was reported by several news media outlets that Hitachi is planning to sell a 60% stake in its overseas home appliance business to major Turkish...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Hitachi Metals – Acquisition by a PE Fund Could Unlock Value

We believe the rumoured sales of Hitachi Metals to a PE fund such as Bain or KKR could unlock value within the company. The question is how large...

Mio Kato

Last Week in Event SPACE: Coca Cola Amatil, Shimachu, AMP, Hitachi, Jardines, Evergrande

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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