Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Vietnam now accounts for more than 50% of production replacing China</li>
<li>China production is less than 25% of overall capacity in 2023</li>
<li>Reshoring and production of higher end "Athleisure" shoes is increasing margins for Stella International (1836 HK) </li>
</ul>


Vietnam now accounts for more than 50% of production replacing China
China production is less than 25% of overall capacity in 2023
Reshoring and production of higher end "Athleisure" shoes is increasing margins for Stella International (1836 HK) 


Stella International: A Beneficiary of Reshoring

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see 37 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 25 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September.</li>
<li>We expect 32 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 24 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 37 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 25 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September.
We expect 32 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 24 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>We think the risk-reward currently for Stella is excellent, because of: 1) a turnaround of the clothing and sportswear sector in the US</li><li>2) the company’s specific strengths like its high-end positioning (e.g. producing Jordan series for Nike) and ramp-up of footwear business by luxury brands (acquired 17-18 new clients, like Moncler Lacoste and Kenzo (under LVMH)in the past two years) and</li><li>3) undemanding valuation of 8x FY23E P/E and 9% FY23E yield.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We think the risk-reward currently for Stella is excellent, because of: 1) a turnaround of the clothing and sportswear sector in the US2) the company’s specific strengths like its high-end positioning (e.g. producing Jordan series for Nike) and ramp-up of footwear business by luxury brands (acquired 17-18 new clients, like Moncler Lacoste and Kenzo (under LVMH)in the past two years) and3) undemanding valuation of 8x FY23E P/E and 9% FY23E yield.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Stella  (1836 HK) – A Dividend Play Riding on the Athleisure Trend

Hua Hong Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After hitting a low point in Q4 2023, Research on Hong Kong companies has been slow to pick up reflecting the ongoing skepticism from investors. </li>
<li>Reports on the large China tech companies dominated the top ten companies covered over the last couple of years and in the first half of 2024.</li>
<li>As China continues to dominate and make news in the global EV market, research in that sector has picked up.</li>
</ul>


After hitting a low point in Q4 2023, Research on Hong Kong companies has been slow to pick up reflecting the ongoing skepticism from investors. 
Reports on the large China tech companies dominated the top ten companies covered over the last couple of years and in the first half of 2024.
As China continues to dominate and make news in the global EV market, research in that sector has picked up.


BUY/SELL/HOLD: China/Hong Kong Stock Updates (July 8th)

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China ETF flows in June continued to show positive momentum while other categories remained flat.  Southbound Connect Flows were positive while Northbound Connect recorded a Net Sell.</li>
<li>Midea Real Estate Holdings jumped on plans to privatize its property development business</li>
<li>Shanghai Microport fell after launching a share placement at a 15% discount.  The share price  is hitting all time lows.</li>
</ul>


China ETF flows in June continued to show positive momentum while other categories remained flat.  Southbound Connect Flows were positive while Northbound Connect recorded a Net Sell.
Midea Real Estate Holdings jumped on plans to privatize its property development business
Shanghai Microport fell after launching a share placement at a 15% discount.  The share price  is hitting all time lows.


The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in HONG KONG

Hong Kong

Stella International Holdings Limited develops and manufactures footwear products for casual and fashion footwear companies worldwide.

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Stella International (1836 HK)

Stella International: A Beneficiary of Reshoring

Yesterday Stella gave a POSITIVE PROFIT ALERT saying that for the 6 months ending June 30 its profit would grow to $90mm from $55.2mm last year. ...

David Mudd

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

There could be nearly 80 adds/deletes for the HSCI in September. That will trigger changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and increase flows...

Brian Freitas

Stella (1836 HK) – A Dividend Play Riding on the Athleisure Trend

We think the risk-reward currently for Stella is excellent, because of: 1) a turnaround of the clothing and sportswear sector in the US

CMB International

BUY/SELL/HOLD: China/Hong Kong Stock Updates (July 8th)

Tech NEV companies continue to dominate the research landscape for Hong Kong coverage. Bosideng, China Water Affairs, Topsports, BYD and Xiaomi...

David Mudd

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in HONG KONG

China had positive flows into equity ETF's for June and mainland investors continued to direct money to Hong Kong stocks through the Stock Connect...

David Mudd

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