Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>According to Invest Chosun, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> plans to submit a merger registration statement to the KRX in July, with Mirae Asset Securities acting as the lead underwriter.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> investors are in a conundrum. The stock is doing well. With one quarter to go, the company just raised its full-year EPS target by 8.3%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon (7751 JP)</a>'s most recent buyback should be done now-ish. They have been ~15-20% of volume over the past month. The Trade would be short Canon vs <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ricoh-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15359:1" rel="noopener">Ricoh (7752 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


According to Invest Chosun, Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) plans to submit a merger registration statement to the KRX in July, with Mirae Asset Securities acting as the lead underwriter.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) investors are in a conundrum. The stock is doing well. With one quarter to go, the company just raised its full-year EPS target by 8.3%.

Canon (7751 JP)'s most recent buyback should be done now-ish. They have been ~15-20% of volume over the past month. The Trade would be short Canon vs Ricoh (7752 JP).


Last Week in Event SPACE: Celltrion, Fast Retailing, Canon, Costa, Chindata

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  Disinflation Trade on as US PPI provides more tailwinds; Rates, USD Fall; Equites rally, More China Stimulus Coming ? Ripple resolution spurs Crypto bid; AI Wars: Meta Updates BARD</li>
<li>JAPAN. Nikkei Futures +1% vs Cash; USDJPY 138; Set for Beta bid in Stocks; Blow out Fast Retailing numbers; Barclays see Sept BOJ tweek; Bullish Bank Initiations from UBS</li>
<li>NUGGET.  Hydrogen is a key part of JP Govt carbon zero strategy. We see KHI(7012) as a Hydrogen winner and see the recent pullback as a good entry opportunity</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  Disinflation Trade on as US PPI provides more tailwinds; Rates, USD Fall; Equites rally, More China Stimulus Coming ? Ripple resolution spurs Crypto bid; AI Wars: Meta Updates BARD
JAPAN. Nikkei Futures +1% vs Cash; USDJPY 138; Set for Beta bid in Stocks; Blow out Fast Retailing numbers; Barclays see Sept BOJ tweek; Bullish Bank Initiations from UBS
NUGGET.  Hydrogen is a key part of JP Govt carbon zero strategy. We see KHI(7012) as a Hydrogen winner and see the recent pullback as a good entry opportunity


Ohayo Japan| Lower Rates, Higher Stocks; Crypto Optimism; NUGGET: Hydrogen Future - KHI(7012)Revisit

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> announced its 3QFY23 results today, surpassing the consensus OP estimate by approximately 10%.</li>
<li>Notably, there was strong revenue growth for Uniqlo, including in recently underperforming markets such as mainland China and South Korea.  </li>
<li>Despite the strong set of results, it appears that Fast Retailing is overvalued as the stock is currently trading at a valuation of over 20.0x its medium-term FY27 OP target.</li>
</ul>



Fast Retailing (9983 JP) announced its 3QFY23 results today, surpassing the consensus OP estimate by approximately 10%.
Notably, there was strong revenue growth for Uniqlo, including in recently underperforming markets such as mainland China and South Korea.  
Despite the strong set of results, it appears that Fast Retailing is overvalued as the stock is currently trading at a valuation of over 20.0x its medium-term FY27 OP target.


Fast Retailing: Strong Performance in China & Korea, But Valuation Could Weigh on Price Performance

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Plus Alpha Consulting / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Three shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/plus-alpha-consulting-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33441:1" rel="noopener">Plus Alpha Consulting (4071 JP)</a> (PAC) aim to raise around US$230m via selling over 26% of the company.</li>
<li>PAC was listed in 2021 and after a somewhat tepid initial performance it has been doing well over the past year.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework</li>
</ul>


Three shareholders of Plus Alpha Consulting (4071 JP) (PAC) aim to raise around US$230m via selling over 26% of the company.
PAC was listed in 2021 and after a somewhat tepid initial performance it has been doing well over the past year.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework


Plus Alpha Consulting Placement - Pulling Out All Stops for Deal Success as Insiders Are Selling

<ul>
<li>Three shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/socionext-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36351:1" rel="noopener">Socionext (6526 JP)</a> aim to raise around US$1.4bn via selling all of their shares in Socionext.</li>
<li>We have covered the background of the deal in our earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/socionext-placement-a-us-1-8bn-cleanup-will-have-to-give-up-some-of-its-6x-listing-gains" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:106206" rel="noopener">Socionext Placement - A US$1.8bn Cleanup, Will Have to Give up Some of Its 6x Listing Gains</a>.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the updates and look at the performance of some of the past Japan deals.</li>
</ul>


Three shareholders of Socionext (6526 JP) aim to raise around US$1.4bn via selling all of their shares in Socionext.
We have covered the background of the deal in our earlier note, Socionext Placement - A US$1.8bn Cleanup, Will Have to Give up Some of Its 6x Listing Gains.
In this note, we talk about the updates and look at the performance of some of the past Japan deals.


Socionext Placement - Valuation More Reasonable but past Secondary Offerings Have a Mixed Record

Japan

FAST RETAILING CO., LTD. operates a chain of clothing stores, UNIQLO, throughout Japan and in other markets overseas including UK, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, US, France, Singapore and Russia.  The Company designs, manufactures, and retails its own line of casual clothing.

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Fast Retailing (9983 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Celltrion, Fast Retailing, Canon, Costa, Chindata

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Ohayo Japan| Lower Rates, Higher Stocks; Crypto Optimism; NUGGET: Hydrogen Future - KHI(7012)Revisit

Disinflation trade continues- Rates down, DXY down, Stocks up; Nikkei Futures +1% vs Cash; USDJPY 138; Set for Beta bid in Stocks; Blow out Fast...

Mark Chadwick

Fast Retailing: Strong Performance in China & Korea, But Valuation Could Weigh on Price Performance

Despite the strong set of results, it appears that Fast Retailing is overvalued as the stock is currently trading at a valuation of over 20.0x its...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Plus Alpha Consulting Placement - Pulling Out All Stops for Deal Success as Insiders Are Selling

Three shareholders of Plus Alpha Consulting (4071 JP) (PAC) aim to raise around US$230m via selling over 26% of the company.

Sumeet Singh

Socionext Placement - Valuation More Reasonable but past Secondary Offerings Have a Mixed Record

Three shareholders of Socionext (6526 JP) aim to raise around US$1.4bn via selling all of their shares in Socionext. In this note, we look at the...

Sumeet Singh

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