Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 6 August, the Doosan Group announced a revised merger report. Despite some changes in the merger report, there was no change the merger ratios. </li>
<li>Many minority shareholders of Doosan Enerbility and Doosan Bobcat are likely to oppose this merger. The net result is an increasing probability that this merger gets cancelled, in our view.</li>
<li>Doosan Enerbility has set aside about 600 billion won for exercise of appraisal rights and if it exceeds this amount, the merger may be cancelled. </li>
</ul>


On 6 August, the Doosan Group announced a revised merger report. Despite some changes in the merger report, there was no change the merger ratios. 
Many minority shareholders of Doosan Enerbility and Doosan Bobcat are likely to oppose this merger. The net result is an increasing probability that this merger gets cancelled, in our view.
Doosan Enerbility has set aside about 600 billion won for exercise of appraisal rights and if it exceeds this amount, the merger may be cancelled. 


Doosan Group Revises Merger Report and Increasing Probability of Merger Getting Cancelled

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August.</li>
<li>We see 8 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 1 new addition to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and 3 new additions to MidCap.</li>
<li>There are a few stocks that are expected to have passive flows from global and local index trackers over the next few months and that will add to the impact.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August.
We see 8 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 1 new addition to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and 3 new additions to MidCap.
There are a few stocks that are expected to have passive flows from global and local index trackers over the next few months and that will add to the impact.


KOSPI Size Indices: Outperformance Slows on Momentum Stalls

<ul>
<li>On 11 July, the Doosan Group announced a major business structure reorganization, including the delisting of Doosan Bobcat Inc (241560 KS).</li>
<li>In our view (over the next 3-6 months), these transactions appear to be value-destroying for Doosan Bobcat and Doosan Enerbility minority shareholders but positive for Doosan Robotics shareholders.</li>
<li>Doosan Robotics plans to acquire the remaining 54% stake in Doosan Bobcat through a tender offer. Once Doosan Robotics fully owns Doosan Bobcat, its shares will be delisted.</li>
</ul>


On 11 July, the Doosan Group announced a major business structure reorganization, including the delisting of Doosan Bobcat Inc (241560 KS).
In our view (over the next 3-6 months), these transactions appear to be value-destroying for Doosan Bobcat and Doosan Enerbility minority shareholders but positive for Doosan Robotics shareholders.
Doosan Robotics plans to acquire the remaining 54% stake in Doosan Bobcat through a tender offer. Once Doosan Robotics fully owns Doosan Bobcat, its shares will be delisted.


Reorganization of the Doosan Group: Why Delist Doosan Bobcat (Jewel of Doosan Group)?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 3Q 2024.</li>
<li>Of the 38 pair trades, 21 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past six months, suggesting increased capital allocation to Korean holdcos relative to their opcos.</li>
<li>These pairs could generate trading opportunities in terms of their pricing gaps closing reversal (Doosan Corp vs. Doosan Enerbility; Hyundai Mobis vs Hyundai Motor).</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 3Q 2024.
Of the 38 pair trades, 21 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past six months, suggesting increased capital allocation to Korean holdcos relative to their opcos.
These pairs could generate trading opportunities in terms of their pricing gaps closing reversal (Doosan Corp vs. Doosan Enerbility; Hyundai Mobis vs Hyundai Motor).


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2024

<ul>
<li>Starting 24 July, there will be a mandatory pre-announcement requirement for block deal sales in Korea. </li>
<li>In other words, the major shareholders of the Korean companies need to report publicly prior to their actual sales of their stakes in these companies through block deal sales.</li>
<li>The potential block deal sales candidates could continue to underperform on average the companies that are selling these stocks in potential block deal sales in the next several weeks. </li>
</ul>


Starting 24 July, there will be a mandatory pre-announcement requirement for block deal sales in Korea. 
In other words, the major shareholders of the Korean companies need to report publicly prior to their actual sales of their stakes in these companies through block deal sales.
The potential block deal sales candidates could continue to underperform on average the companies that are selling these stocks in potential block deal sales in the next several weeks. 


Mandatory Block Deal Pre-Announcement Requirement in Korea Starting 24 July: Impact on Block Deals

South Korea

Doosan Co., Ltd operates as a diversified manufacturing and service company. The Company conducts electronic components production, logistics equipment manufacturing, information technology consulting, and other businesses. Doosan provides services worldwide.

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Doosan Corp (000150 KS)

Doosan Group Revises Merger Report and Increasing Probability of Merger Getting Cancelled

Lee Bok-Hyun (FSS head) stated today that "In reality, the market prices [of Doosan Bobcat and Doosan Robotics] may not properly reflect their fair...

Douglas Kim

KOSPI Size Indices: Outperformance Slows on Momentum Stalls

There could be 41 stocks migrating between size segments in September. The upward migrations have outperformed the downward migrations but the...

Brian Freitas

Reorganization of the Doosan Group: Why Delist Doosan Bobcat (Jewel of Doosan Group)?

There has been a major backlash among both domestic and overseas investors on the split of Doosan Enerbility, merger swap between Doosan Enerbility...

Douglas Kim

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2024

In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in...

Douglas Kim

Mandatory Block Deal Pre-Announcement Requirement in Korea Starting 24 July: Impact on Block Deals

According to Seoul Economic Daily, LG Chem has been tapping various institutional investors for a potential block deal sale of about 1 trillion won...

Douglas Kim

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