Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

Nomura Research Institute / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On 25 November <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-research-institute-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18129:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP)</a> announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:742:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Holdings (8604 JP)</a> would conduct a Secondary Offering of NRI Shares. </li>
<li>The sale is 36.97mm shares plus a greenshoe. It's a big deal ($1bn) including greenshoe after JPY has just strengthened, but underperformance both before and after announcement sets up well. </li>
<li>Expect weakness today, but the stock is now at a two-year low, and the PER multiple premium is now at the lowest 3mo average premium in 5yrs. Expect retail buying.</li>
</ul>


On 25 November Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP) announced that Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) and Nomura Holdings (8604 JP) would conduct a Secondary Offering of NRI Shares. 
The sale is 36.97mm shares plus a greenshoe. It's a big deal ($1bn) including greenshoe after JPY has just strengthened, but underperformance both before and after announcement sets up well. 
Expect weakness today, but the stock is now at a two-year low, and the PER multiple premium is now at the lowest 3mo average premium in 5yrs. Expect retail buying.


NRI (4307) Likely Prices Today - Expect Weakness Then Strength

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:742:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Holdings (8604 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)</a> are looking to raise around US$850m via selling 5.7% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-research-institute-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18129:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>This is not the first sale by Nomura and marks a clean up for Jafco. Hence it might not come as a complete surprise.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.</li>
</ul>



Nomura Holdings (8604 JP) and Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) are looking to raise around US$850m via selling 5.7% of Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP). 
This is not the first sale by Nomura and marks a clean up for Jafco. Hence it might not come as a complete surprise.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.


Nomura Research Placement - Somewhat Well Flagged, past Deals Have Done Well but Momentum Is Weak

<ul>
<li>On Friday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-research-institute-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18129:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP)</a> announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:742:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Holdings (8604 JP)</a> would each sell NRI shares in a Secondary Offering.</li>
<li>JAFCO is selling to fund a giant buyback. Nomura is selling to round out the offering size. The total is 37mm shares plus greenshoe of 5.5mm shares. </li>
<li>At Friday's price that is ~¥140bn (including greenshoe), 7% of shares out, 10% of float, and about 25% of Real World Float. There are index implications.</li>
</ul>


On Friday, Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP) announced that Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) and Nomura Holdings (8604 JP) would each sell NRI shares in a Secondary Offering.
JAFCO is selling to fund a giant buyback. Nomura is selling to round out the offering size. The total is 37mm shares plus greenshoe of 5.5mm shares. 
At Friday's price that is ~¥140bn (including greenshoe), 7% of shares out, 10% of float, and about 25% of Real World Float. There are index implications.


Nomura Research Institute (4307) Large Secondary Offering - Demand Profile and Index Implications

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>IFM bought around 67.1m shares (7% of shares out) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-arteria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14430:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)</a> at A$8.1/share last evening taking its total holding to around 15% of shares outstanding.</li>
<li>IFM intends to request certain information that would help it assess whether it can submit a non-binding proposal to acquire all the shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-arteria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14430:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Arteria</a> that it does not own.</li>
<li>With the indicative offer floor set at A$8.1/share, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-arteria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14430:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Arteria</a> still trades cheaper than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/transurban-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:593:1" rel="noopener">Transurban Group</a> and offers a 14% premium to last close and even higher premiums to longer-term VWAPs.</li>
</ul>


IFM bought around 67.1m shares (7% of shares out) of Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) at A$8.1/share last evening taking its total holding to around 15% of shares outstanding.
IFM intends to request certain information that would help it assess whether it can submit a non-binding proposal to acquire all the shares in Atlas Arteria that it does not own.
With the indicative offer floor set at A$8.1/share, Atlas Arteria still trades cheaper than Transurban Group and offers a 14% premium to last close and even higher premiums to longer-term VWAPs.


Atlas Arteria Group (ALX AU): IFM Makes an Approach

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
Five things to know about China’s draft rules on local financial institutions
</li>
<li>
Beijing shortens quarantines for inbound travelers, close contacts
</li>
<li>
Shrinking capital investment drags down Caixin New Economy Index
</li>
</ul>



Five things to know about China’s draft rules on local financial institutions


Beijing shortens quarantines for inbound travelers, close contacts


Shrinking capital investment drags down Caixin New Economy Index



CX Daily: Five Things To Know About China’s Draft Rules On Local Financial Institutions

Japan

Nomura Holdings, Inc. is a holding company which manages financial operations for its subsidiaries.  As a group, the Company provides a variety of financial services such as dealing, brokerage, underwriting, and asset management. Nomura Securities Co., a registered member of the New York and London Stock Exchanges, has branches around the world.

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Nomura Holdings (8604 JP)

NRI (4307) Likely Prices Today - Expect Weakness Then Strength

NRi has underperformed Peers since its announcement. It's current PER multiple to the Peer Average matches the lowest 3-month average premium seen...

Travis Lundy

Nomura Research Placement - Somewhat Well Flagged, past Deals Have Done Well but Momentum Is Weak

Nomura Holdings (8604 JP) and Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) are looking to raise around US$850m via selling 5.7% of Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP).

Sumeet Singh

Nomura Research Institute (4307) Large Secondary Offering - Demand Profile and Index Implications

Nomura Research Institute (4307) will see a US$1bn Secondary Offering in the next two weeks. JAFCO is selling out, Nomura is topping up the...

Travis Lundy

Atlas Arteria Group (ALX AU): IFM Makes an Approach

IFM has bought 7% of Atlas Arteria at A$8.1/share and now holds 15% of the company. An indicative offer should be made soon and there is a decent...

Brian Freitas

CX Daily: Five Things To Know About China’s Draft Rules On Local Financial Institutions

Five things to know about China’s draft rules on local financial institutions. Beijing shortens quarantines for inbound travelers, close contacts

Caixin Global

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