'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/136/651/original/2020-05-29_06-37-52.png?1590701909" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="136651"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>LIMPING HOME - 42 companies reported results on Thursday of which 32 were for the full-year. Of these, 38% made FY2021 forecasts of which only three scored positively. Seventy more companies will announce today, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olympus-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:356:1" rel="noopener">Olympus Corp (7733 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamaha-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7411:1" rel="noopener">Yamaha Motor (7272 JP)</a>, leaving only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba (6502 JP)</a> from the 'trillion yen club' for next week.

Source • Japan AnalyticsLIMPING HOME - 42 companies reported results on Thursday of which 32 were for the full-year. Of these, 38% made FY2021 forecasts of which only three scored positively. Seventy more companies will announce today, including Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP), Olympus Corp (7733 JP), and Yamaha Motor (7272 JP), leaving only Toshiba (6502 JP) from the 'trillion yen club' for next week. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 28th May - Nissan, Nikon & Toray

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Event-Driven

Since the 17th of March we have published several notes regarding skews in performance between names that have heavy weights in TOPIX vs. those with heavy weights in the Nikkei. While it has required some very nimble trading the alpha generation if you were on the right side of the trades has been exceptionally good. We summarise the performance of the names we have highlighted and our thoughts on when to close out these trades below.

Since the 17th of March we have published several notes regarding skews in performance between names that have heavy weights in TOPIX vs. those with heavy weights in the Nikkei. While it has required some very nimble trading the alpha generation if you were on the right side of the trades has been exceptionally good. We summarise the performance of the names we have highlighted and our thoughts on when to close out these trades below.

Taking Stock of the Almost Excessive Alpha Generation From TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trades

On Thursday we highlighted a number of stock pairs that had seen extreme levels of relative performance dislocations, speculating that this was due to relative value unwinds that were being rushed for completion prior to the long weekend. This morning the skews are reversing and with Nikkei now outperforming Topix (+02.7% vs. -0.87% at the time of this writing) we believe this opportunity is being realised quickly. Our thoughts on next steps below.

On Thursday we highlighted a number of stock pairs that had seen extreme levels of relative performance dislocations, speculating that this was due to relative value unwinds that were being rushed for completion prior to the long weekend. This morning the skews are reversing and with Nikkei now outperforming Topix (+02.7% vs. -0.87% at the time of this writing) we believe this opportunity is being realised quickly. Our thoughts on next steps below.

Japan Long Weekend Portfolio Blowout Theme Is Working Quickly

We previously highlighted the strong skew between names which have a heavy weighting in Topix vs. those which have a heavy weighting in the Nikkei. Given extreme looking skews even in individual names it does not seem unreasonable that some relative value fund(s) are exiting positions aggressively prior to what could be a key long weekend for Japan with potentially heavy volatility on Monday. We examine some striking performance discrepancies below.

We previously highlighted the strong skew between names which have a heavy weighting in Topix vs. those which have a heavy weighting in the Nikkei. Given extreme looking skews even in individual names it does not seem unreasonable that some relative value fund(s) are exiting positions aggressively prior to what could be a key long weekend for Japan with potentially heavy volatility on Monday. We examine some striking performance discrepancies below.

What Is Getting Blown Out of Portfolios Before the Long Weekend in Japan?

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/117/590/original/2020-02-13_03-51-57.png?1581538303" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="117590"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>12TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - 272 results and 122 revisions announcements were made yesterday. Our Results Score declined by another 18 basis points to reach -0.65, while the Forecast /Revision  Score added 6bps thanks to upbeat initial FY2020 forecasts from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimano-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3777:1" rel="noopener">Shimano (7309 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamaha-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7411:1" rel="noopener">Yamaha Motor (7272 JP)</a>.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/117/591/original/2020-02-13_03-58-17.png?1581538602" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="117591"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>SECTOR TIMELINE - This quarter's Sector winners and losers are now becoming more apparent. in the former camp are Banks, Energy,  Tech Hardware, Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, and Non-Bank Finance, while the latter includes Other Commercial Products, Transportation &amp; Logistics, Chemicals, Building Materials, and Media. The largest one-day changes were in Energy (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inpex-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20665:1" rel="noopener">Inpex (1605 JP)</a>) and Telecommunications (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>).  825 companies have yet to report, of which 385 are due today and a similar number on Friday.

Source • Japan Analytics12TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - 272 results and 122 revisions announcements were made yesterday. Our Results Score declined by another 18 basis points to reach -0.65, while the Forecast /Revision  Score added 6bps thanks to upbeat initial FY2020 forecasts from Shimano (7309 JP) and Yamaha Motor (7272 JP).Source • Japan AnalyticsSECTOR TIMELINE - This quarter's Sector winners and losers are now becoming more apparent. in the former camp are Banks, Energy,  Tech Hardware, Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, and Non-Bank Finance, while the latter includes Other Commercial Products, Transportation &amp; Logistics, Chemicals, Building Materials, and Media. The largest one-day changes were in Energy (Inpex (1605 JP)) and Telecommunications (Softbank Group (9984 JP)).  825 companies have yet to report, of which 385 are due today and a similar number on Friday.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 12th February ▲9449 6273 7309 ▼ 3769 6367 4324

Japan

Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. manufactures motorcycles.  The Company also produces motor vehicle engines for Toyota Motor Corp. and Ford Motor Co.  Yamaha Motor's specialty products include motor boats, snowmobiles, golf carts, and electric power generators.  Yamaha Motor sells products in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, and South America.

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Yamaha Motor (7272 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 28th May - Nissan, Nikon & Toray

LIMPING HOME - 42 companies reported results on Thursday of which 32 were for the full-year. Of these, 38% made FY2021 forecasts of which only...

Campbell Gunn

Taking Stock of the Almost Excessive Alpha Generation From TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trades

Since the 17th of March we have published several notes regarding skews in performance between names that have heavy weights in TOPIX vs. those...

Mio Kato

Japan Long Weekend Portfolio Blowout Theme Is Working Quickly

On Thursday we highlighted a number of stock pairs that had seen extreme levels of relative performance dislocations, speculating that this was due...

Mio Kato

What Is Getting Blown Out of Portfolios Before the Long Weekend in Japan?

We previously highlighted the strong skew between names which have a heavy weighting in Topix vs. those which have a heavy weighting in the Nikkei....

Mio Kato

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 12th February ▲9449 6273 7309 ▼ 3769 6367 4324

12TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - 272 results and 122 revisions announcements were made yesterday. Our Results Score declined by another 18 basis points to...

Campbell Gunn

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Market Cap (USDm)

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