Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Yamaha’s 1QFY22 was weak with revenue of ¥482bn (-1.5% vs. consensus), and OP of ¥40.1bn (-17.3% vs. consensus). </li>
<li>The company’s FY22 guidance remained unchanged projecting ¥2,000bn in revenue (-2.0% vs. consensus) and OP guidance of ¥190bn (-4.5% vs. consensus). </li>
<li>Beating guidance significantly will now be difficult without price hikes but valuations are too cheap to ignore.</li>
</ul>


Yamaha’s 1QFY22 was weak with revenue of ¥482bn (-1.5% vs. consensus), and OP of ¥40.1bn (-17.3% vs. consensus). 
The company’s FY22 guidance remained unchanged projecting ¥2,000bn in revenue (-2.0% vs. consensus) and OP guidance of ¥190bn (-4.5% vs. consensus). 
Beating guidance significantly will now be difficult without price hikes but valuations are too cheap to ignore.


Yamaha Motor – Struggling But Still Too Cheap

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Yamaha Motors' stock crashed 9% after a poor quarterly report</li>
<li>However, there were a number of temporary issues impacting costs in the quarter. Management reiterated its guidance for the full year</li>
<li>Given that demand for its marine engines and motorbikes remains on track, we think the stock is too cheap, trading below book value </li>
</ul>


Yamaha Motors' stock crashed 9% after a poor quarterly report
However, there were a number of temporary issues impacting costs in the quarter. Management reiterated its guidance for the full year
Given that demand for its marine engines and motorbikes remains on track, we think the stock is too cheap, trading below book value 


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamaha-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7411:1" rel="noopener">Yamaha Motor (7272 JP)</a> announced a short-term buyback. 3 months, 3%. It isn't huge but it helps with the TOPIX FFW changes to come in two weeks. </li>
<li>It also helps with the extra overhang from last year's selldown and the significant cross-holding overhang which exists. </li>
<li>But the shares are very inexpensive vs peers when one looks at consensus forward earnings and EBIT, and better growth is expected too.</li>
</ul>



Yamaha Motor (7272 JP) announced a short-term buyback. 3 months, 3%. It isn't huge but it helps with the TOPIX FFW changes to come in two weeks. 
It also helps with the extra overhang from last year's selldown and the significant cross-holding overhang which exists. 
But the shares are very inexpensive vs peers when one looks at consensus forward earnings and EBIT, and better growth is expected too.


Yamaha Motors Buyback (7272) - Medium-Bigly Buyback Complicated by TOPIX FFW and Cross-Holdings

<ul>
<li>Yamaha Motor’s 4Q21 beat on margins with revenue of ¥450bn (+1.2% QoQ, +11.3% YoY) and OP of ¥27.7bn for an OPM of 6.2%. </li>
<li>The reported OP was 8.6% higher than consensus estimates while revenue was relatively in-line. </li>
<li>Yamaha’s FY OP generation was ¥182.3bn, right in the middle of our ¥180-185bn estimate and 2022 guidance was more or less in-line with consensus.</li>
</ul>


Yamaha Motor’s 4Q21 beat on margins with revenue of ¥450bn (+1.2% QoQ, +11.3% YoY) and OP of ¥27.7bn for an OPM of 6.2%. 
The reported OP was 8.6% higher than consensus estimates while revenue was relatively in-line. 
Yamaha’s FY OP generation was ¥182.3bn, right in the middle of our ¥180-185bn estimate and 2022 guidance was more or less in-line with consensus.


Yamaha Motor – Lowballing Guidance on Material Costs

<p>Yamaha Motors posted a strong 3Q with OP 35% higher than consensus estimates despite no significant beat at the top line. While volumes are still being impacted by the semiconductor shortage, margins are improving and consensus is underestimating future profit potential.</p>

Yamaha Motors posted a strong 3Q with OP 35% higher than consensus estimates despite no significant beat at the top line. While volumes are still being impacted by the semiconductor shortage, margins are improving and consensus is underestimating future profit potential.

Yamaha Motor – Comfortable Beat of Consensus on the Cards

Japan

NISSAN MOTOR CO., LTD. manufactures and distributes automobiles and related parts. It also provides financing services. Nissan delivers a comprehensive range of products under various brands. The Company manufactures in Japan, the United States, Mexico, the United Kingdom and many other countries.

Isuzu Motors Limited manufactures and markets trucks and automobile parts. The Company's products include pickup trucks, light/heavy duty trucks, medium and large-sized buses, recreational vehicles, and sport utility vehicles.

Mazda Motor Corporation manufactures and sells automobiles, trucks, auto parts, and its accessories.  The Company operates its business worldwide.

MITSUBISHI MOTORS CORPORATION develops and manufactures passenger cars and its related parts.  The Company has production facilities in Japan, the US, and Thailand.  Mitsubishi Motors Corp provides vehicle-related financing and leasing service through its subsidiary.

Subaru Corp manufactures passenger cars, buses, motor vehicle parts, and industrial machinery.  The Company also produces aircraft parts and supplies it to defense agency and Boeing Co.  The Company sells its passenger cars under the Subaru brand name.

NISSAN SHATAI CO., LTD. develops, designs, and assembles automobiles including sedans, Recreational Vehicles(RV), station wagons, and buses for Nissan Motor. The Company also manufactures parts for motor vehicles.

NGK SPARK PLUG Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets spark plugs for automobiles, motorcycles, agricultural machinery, ships, and aircrafts.  The Company also makes ceramic products for semiconductor and telecommunication equipment. NGK Spark Plug markets its products under the NGK and NTK brand names and has subsidiaries in the US, Canada, France, Germany, and South Korea.

Sumitomo Electric Industries, Ltd. manufactures electric wires, cables, and their related equipment.  The Company's products include optical fibers, wire harnesses, antennas for broadcasting stations, and electric monitoring systems.  Sumitomo Electric also produces disc brakes and antilock braking systems for automobiles and printed circuit board.

Aisin Corporation manufactures and distributes motor vehicle parts. The Company produces drive train, transmissions, clutches, disc brakes, anti-skid brake system, suspensions, oil pumps, power windows, power door locks, and more. Aisin operates sales and production subsidiaries worldwide.

Stanley Electric Co., Ltd. manufactures lighting equipment including head lights, HID (High Intensity Discharge) assist lamps, and rear combination lamps for automobiles.  The Company also produces LCD (Liquid Cristal Display) and LED (Light Emitted Diode) lamps for communication equipment, office automation equipment, and information displays.

PT Astra International Tbk assembles and distributes automobiles, motorcycles, and their related spare parts.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the mining, development of plantations, financial and information technology.

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited operates as a passenger vehicles manufacturing company. The Company provides passenger vehicles development, manufacturing, sales, and other services. Geely Automobile Holdings also exports passenger vehicles.

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and develops, and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs.

Hero MotoCorp Ltd. designs, manufactures and distributes motorcycles. The Company's products also include motorcycle parts and accessories.

FAW Jiefang Group Co., Ltd, through joint ventures, manufactures and markets cars and auto parts.  The Company produces automobiles, transmission systems, and engines.  FAW Car also provides auto repair and customizing services.

BAIC BluePark New Energy Technology Co.,Ltd. operates as a passenger car manufacturer. The Company engages in research, development, and marketing of new energy vehicles and power battery system. BAIC BluePark New Energy Technology conducts businesses in China.

BAIC BluePark New Energy Techn (600733 CH)

Guangzhou Automobile Group Company, Ltd. manufactures, sells, and services automobiles. The Company is also involved in automobile parts and components, and auto finance and related services for both overseas and domestic markets.

Thor Industries, Inc. produces and sells a wide range of recreation vehicles.  The Company markets its products through independent dealers located throughout the United States and Canada.  Thor's products are sold under the Airstream Classic, Dutchmen, Skamper, Infinity, Four Winds, Citation, Signature, and other names.

TVS Motor Company Limited manufactures motorcycles, mopeds, and scooters. The Company provides spark ignition operated outboard motors, combustion spark ignition engines, critical engines, and transmission parts. TVS Motor Company serves customers in India.

Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets bus and truck chassis, gear boxes, other auto parts, and business automobiles.

Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. manufactures motorcycles.  The Company also produces motor vehicle engines for Toyota Motor Corp. and Ford Motor Co.  Yamaha Motor's specialty products include motor boats, snowmobiles, golf carts, and electric power generators.  Yamaha Motor sells products in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, and South America.

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Yamaha Motor (7272 JP)

Yamaha Motor – Struggling But Still Too Cheap

A weak 1Q print for Yamaha Motor will make beating guidance significantly difficult without price hikes but valuations are too cheap to ignore.

Mio Kato

Yamaha Motors (7272 JP) | Back on Track

Yamaha Motors suffered a temporary setback in its most recent quarter due to chip supply issues and shipping constraints. Underlying demand for its...

Mark Chadwick

Yamaha Motors Buyback (7272) - Medium-Bigly Buyback Complicated by TOPIX FFW and Cross-Holdings

Yamaha Motor (7272 JP) announced a buyback which helps offset the likely selling to come from the TOPIX FFW review to be announced early April....

Travis Lundy

Yamaha Motor – Lowballing Guidance on Material Costs

Yamaha’s FY OP generation was ¥182.3bn, right in the middle of our ¥180-185bn estimate and 2022 guidance was more or less in-line with consensus....

Mio Kato

Yamaha Motor – Comfortable Beat of Consensus on the Cards

Yamaha Motors posted a strong 3Q with OP 35% higher than consensus estimates despite no significant beat at the top line and consensus is...

Mio Kato

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