Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

On 13 May 2019, along with earnings, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11875" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11875:1">Toppan Printing (7911 JP)</a> and subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2119" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2119:1">Tosho Printing (7913 JP)</a> announced a merger where Toppan will acquire Tosho this summer, with completion scheduled for August 1st - a mere 11 weeks away. Shareholders of Tosho Printing are scheduled to receive 0.8 shares of Toppan Printing for every Tosho share held, meaning the deal was announced at a 41.2% premium to last. Tosho Printing was therefore limit up today and may not open til Thursday. Toppan Printing was up 4.4% in addition.The blue/red candlesticks are Tosho (the black/yellow are Toppan (with black prices)) and the red/yellow dot is where the Merger Ratio would value Tosho shares if they had traded today.  <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/087/841/original/Screenshot%202019-05-14%20at%207.33.55%20PM.png?1557833677" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="87841"></figure><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">data source: investing.com, company filings, Quiddity</div>That shows Tosho at the best ratio in five years and the highest outright price in five years. You'd have to go back 23 years to find a time when Tosho Printing shares traded higher. The deal is short-dated (EGM record date was 31 March, vote is in 6 weeks, and merger four weeks after that), and on the face of it, this would normally appear pretty easy to clear because of Toppan's 51% stake and the presence of significant cross-holders and similar bringing likely FOR votes to well above 60% without thinking about it. <div class="content-highlight">
However, with Japanese small cap subsidiary situations, one always has to look behind the curtain. This case is no exception. 
In this case one has to look behind the curtain at the parent too.
This deal is more complicated than it looks. 
But it may not be.
</div>For other insights on Japanese M&amp;A please check the list of Japan-related Event-Driven insights <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights?collection=all-insights&amp;filters=countries%3AJapan%7Cverticals%3A29" target="_blank">here</a>. As a reference to Japan M&amp;A rules and practices, please see the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-japan-m-a-guide-2019" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:28911">Quiddity Japan M&amp;A Guide 2019</a>.

On 13 May 2019, along with earnings, Toppan Printing (7911 JP) and subsidiary Tosho Printing (7913 JP) announced a merger where Toppan will acquire Tosho this summer, with completion scheduled for August 1st - a mere 11 weeks away. Shareholders of Tosho Printing are scheduled to receive 0.8 shares of Toppan Printing for every Tosho share held, meaning the deal was announced at a 41.2% premium to last. Tosho Printing was therefore limit up today and may not open til Thursday. Toppan Printing was up 4.4% in addition.The blue/red candlesticks are Tosho (the black/yellow are Toppan (with black prices)) and the red/yellow dot is where the Merger Ratio would value Tosho shares if they had traded today.  data source: investing.com, company filings, QuiddityThat shows Tosho at the best ratio in five years and the highest outright price in five years. You'd have to go back 23 years to find a time when Tosho Printing shares traded higher. The deal is short-dated (EGM record date was 31 March, vote is in 6 weeks, and merger four weeks after that), and on the face of it, this would normally appear pretty easy to clear because of Toppan's 51% stake and the presence of significant cross-holders and similar bringing likely FOR votes to well above 60% without thinking about it. 
However, with Japanese small cap subsidiary situations, one always has to look behind the curtain. This case is no exception. 
In this case one has to look behind the curtain at the parent too.
This deal is more complicated than it looks. 
But it may not be.
For other insights on Japanese M&amp;A please check the list of Japan-related Event-Driven insights here. As a reference to Japan M&amp;A rules and practices, please see the Quiddity Japan M&amp;A Guide 2019. 

Toppan Printing Bid To Take Over Subsidiary Tosho Printing

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/080/230/original/2019-02-26_16-49-25.png?1551182690" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="80230"></figure>
Source: Japan Analytics
</div>
LARGE CAP RESULTS &amp; REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions announcements covers the Results &amp; Revision Scores for Japan's 785 larger capitalisation companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b.
In the DETAIL section below we look at:- 
<ul>
<li>The 30 top and bottom-ranked companies by Results &amp; Revision Score as well as the top and bottom thirty ranked by change in score over the last quarter and provide brief comments on companies and topics of note.</li>
<li>By comparing Results Scores and Forecast/Revision Scores, we sort companies into'Optimists', 'Pessimists', 'Increasingly Optimistic' and 'Increasingly Pessimistic' categories.</li>
<li>As shown above, the relationship between the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) and our Relative Price Score (RPS) for each company and divide the large-cap universe into four 'quadrants' - 'Contrarian Buy' (Low RRS &amp; Low RPS) , 'Contrarian Sell' (High RRS &amp; High RPS), 'Peak Growth' (High RRS &amp; Low RPS) and 'Ex-Growth/Turnaround'  (Low RRS &amp; High RPS), highlighting the outliers in each quadrant.
<ul>
<li>In the two 'Contrarian' quadrants, the market is aligned with the current earnings momentum of the companies suggesting opportunities exist only for those willing or brave enough to take a contrarian view. </li>
<li>For 'Peak Growth', the market is calling for a downturn in momentum that has yet to be reflected in quarterly earnings. Where the cycle is more prolonged than expected, there are often opportunities for short-term rebounds in what are normally relatively-inexpensive companies.</li>
<li>The 'Ex-Growth' quadrant often consists of former 'Contrarian Sell's where the market is reluctant to acknowledge that the cycle has turned. This quadrant can also contain 'Turnarounds' - formerly 'Contrarian Buys' where the market is correctly anticipating a change in fortunes.   </li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Finally, we provide tables of the top and bottom five ranked companies in each of our 30 Sectors.</li>
</ul>



Source: Japan Analytics

LARGE CAP RESULTS &amp; REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions announcements covers the Results &amp; Revision Scores for Japan's 785 larger capitalisation companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b.
In the DETAIL section below we look at:- 

The 30 top and bottom-ranked companies by Results &amp; Revision Score as well as the top and bottom thirty ranked by change in score over the last quarter and provide brief comments on companies and topics of note.
By comparing Results Scores and Forecast/Revision Scores, we sort companies into'Optimists', 'Pessimists', 'Increasingly Optimistic' and 'Increasingly Pessimistic' categories.
As shown above, the relationship between the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) and our Relative Price Score (RPS) for each company and divide the large-cap universe into four 'quadrants' - 'Contrarian Buy' (Low RRS &amp; Low RPS) , 'Contrarian Sell' (High RRS &amp; High RPS), 'Peak Growth' (High RRS &amp; Low RPS) and 'Ex-Growth/Turnaround'  (Low RRS &amp; High RPS), highlighting the outliers in each quadrant.

In the two 'Contrarian' quadrants, the market is aligned with the current earnings momentum of the companies suggesting opportunities exist only for those willing or brave enough to take a contrarian view. 
For 'Peak Growth', the market is calling for a downturn in momentum that has yet to be reflected in quarterly earnings. Where the cycle is more prolonged than expected, there are often opportunities for short-term rebounds in what are normally relatively-inexpensive companies.
The 'Ex-Growth' quadrant often consists of former 'Contrarian Sell's where the market is reluctant to acknowledge that the cycle has turned. This quadrant can also contain 'Turnarounds' - formerly 'Contrarian Buys' where the market is correctly anticipating a change in fortunes.   


Finally, we provide tables of the top and bottom five ranked companies in each of our 30 Sectors.


🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/​Peak & Ex-Growth

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/363/original/2019-01-11_14-16-49.png?1547292773" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75363"></figure>

Source: Japan Analytics</div>
CURRENCY DRIVER - The ¥/US$ cross rate has strengthened by 5.3% since the recent US$ peak of ¥114.20 on November 12th 2018, which has led some FX and technical specialists (including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/381" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:381">Thomas Schroeder </a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dollar-yen-big-short-phase-ii" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:27163">here</a> on Smartkarma) to call for a more sustained bout of US$ weakness. A period of Yen strength is far from a consensus forecast for most Japanese equity investors, and historically a stronger Yen has resulted in a weaker Japanese equity market. The three Yen 'peaks' highlighted by the vertical lines in the chart above all coincided with medium-term lows in TOPIX.  
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/287/original/2019-01-11_14-44-07.png?1547185462" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75287"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
¥ &lt; 100 - If we isolate only the 1,484 days in the last forty years when the USDJPY cross has traded above ¥100, the average TOPIX index is 975, which would imply 36% downside for Japanese equities were the Yen to rise above ¥90. Nevertheless, the three Yen peaks we have isolated have proved to be excellent entry points with the subsequent trough-to-peak performance being 28% in 1995~1996, 108% in 2011~2015 and 48% in 2016~2018. Long-term Japan 'bulls' should welcome the coming US dollar bear market. 
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/313/original/2019-01-12_10-50-14.png?1547257825" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75313"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
EARNINGS DRIVER - The USDJPY cross remains an important driver of earnings and earnings momentum in Japan. As measured by our Results and Revision Scores, there is a good correlation between the trends in both scores and the year-on-year change in USDJPY lagged by six months, especially around significant turning points for the cross rate (marked by the vertical lines). The Results and Revision Scores have declined since January 2018 in line with the stronger Yen. A move up to above the ¥90 level would, without doubt, take both scores into negative territory again- the only question being, are we replaying 2009/10 or 2016/17? 
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/319/original/2019-01-12_13-40-19.png?1547268030" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75319"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
CURRENCY CORRELATIONS - In the DETAIL below, we list the larger capitalisation companies whose share price performance most closely correlated with the dollar-yen cross rate. As a preview, the most correlated larger capitalisation company that has been listed since 2006 is, unsurprisingly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/73" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>.
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/318/original/2019-01-12_13-15-40.png?1547266553" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75318"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
THE FOREIGN CURRENCY TRANSLATION ADJUSTMENT - We also go one step further and use the 'Foreign Currency Translation Adjustment' that forms part of Other Comprehensive Income (which has been disclosed in corporate balance sheets and income statements since 2001 and 2011, respectively) to measure the extent of each company's global business and the embedded currency risk. The correlation of the aggregate FCTA for all non-financial companies is, as would be expected, reasonably tight after adding two-month lag for the reporting cycle. As these amounts are directly deducted from Net Assets for companies adopting JGAAP and from Shareholders' Equity for those companies reporting under SEC or IFRS standards, the impact on valuations cannot be ignored.




Source: Japan Analytics
CURRENCY DRIVER - The ¥/US$ cross rate has strengthened by 5.3% since the recent US$ peak of ¥114.20 on November 12th 2018, which has led some FX and technical specialists (including Thomas Schroeder  here on Smartkarma) to call for a more sustained bout of US$ weakness. A period of Yen strength is far from a consensus forecast for most Japanese equity investors, and historically a stronger Yen has resulted in a weaker Japanese equity market. The three Yen 'peaks' highlighted by the vertical lines in the chart above all coincided with medium-term lows in TOPIX.  

Source: Japan Analytics
¥ &lt; 100 - If we isolate only the 1,484 days in the last forty years when the USDJPY cross has traded above ¥100, the average TOPIX index is 975, which would imply 36% downside for Japanese equities were the Yen to rise above ¥90. Nevertheless, the three Yen peaks we have isolated have proved to be excellent entry points with the subsequent trough-to-peak performance being 28% in 1995~1996, 108% in 2011~2015 and 48% in 2016~2018. Long-term Japan 'bulls' should welcome the coming US dollar bear market. 

Source: Japan Analytics
EARNINGS DRIVER - The USDJPY cross remains an important driver of earnings and earnings momentum in Japan. As measured by our Results and Revision Scores, there is a good correlation between the trends in both scores and the year-on-year change in USDJPY lagged by six months, especially around significant turning points for the cross rate (marked by the vertical lines). The Results and Revision Scores have declined since January 2018 in line with the stronger Yen. A move up to above the ¥90 level would, without doubt, take both scores into negative territory again- the only question being, are we replaying 2009/10 or 2016/17? 

Source: Japan Analytics
CURRENCY CORRELATIONS - In the DETAIL below, we list the larger capitalisation companies whose share price performance most closely correlated with the dollar-yen cross rate. As a preview, the most correlated larger capitalisation company that has been listed since 2006 is, unsurprisingly, Toyota Motor (7203 JP).

Source: Japan Analytics
THE FOREIGN CURRENCY TRANSLATION ADJUSTMENT - We also go one step further and use the 'Foreign Currency Translation Adjustment' that forms part of Other Comprehensive Income (which has been disclosed in corporate balance sheets and income statements since 2001 and 2011, respectively) to measure the extent of each company's global business and the embedded currency risk. The correlation of the aggregate FCTA for all non-financial companies is, as would be expected, reasonably tight after adding two-month lag for the reporting cycle. As these amounts are directly deducted from Net Assets for companies adopting JGAAP and from Shareholders' Equity for those companies reporting under SEC or IFRS standards, the impact on valuations cannot be ignored.

Japan: What to Buy & Sell if the ¥ Rises to 90

Specialty steel maker <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20606" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20606:1">Nisshin Steel (5413 JP)</a> is slated to merge with parent company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/961" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1">Nippon Steel &amp; Sumitomo Metal (5401 JP)</a> as of January 1, 2019. For that, Nisshin Steel will be delisted on December 26th (i.e. the last day of trading is the 25th) and that means the Nikkei Inc was obliged to choose a replacement to take Nisshin Steel's place in the Nikkei 225 and other indices.On December 11th, the Nikkei Inc <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/en/nkave/archives/news/20181211E_3.pdf" target="_blank">announced</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24171" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24171:1">Itoham Yonekyu Holdings Inc (2296 JP)</a> would take Nisshin's place in the Nikkei 500 Index, <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/en/nkave/archives/news/20181211E_2.pdf" target="_blank">announced</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/359" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> would join the Nikkei 300 Index, and <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/en/nkave/archives/news/20181211E_1.pdf" target="_blank">announced</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7343" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7343:1">Dic Corp (4631 JP)</a> would replace Nisshin Steel in the Nikkei Stock Average, better known as the Nikkei 225.The only one which matters is the Nikkei 225 (the other two have tiny tracking), and this is not a huge index trade as both Nisshin Steel and DIC are deemed 500 yen par value stocks.This is an event one could "miss."And it will happen on Christmas Day, after a long weekend for Japan traders.

Specialty steel maker Nisshin Steel (5413 JP) is slated to merge with parent company Nippon Steel &amp; Sumitomo Metal (5401 JP) as of January 1, 2019. For that, Nisshin Steel will be delisted on December 26th (i.e. the last day of trading is the 25th) and that means the Nikkei Inc was obliged to choose a replacement to take Nisshin Steel's place in the Nikkei 225 and other indices.On December 11th, the Nikkei Inc announced Itoham Yonekyu Holdings Inc (2296 JP) would take Nisshin's place in the Nikkei 500 Index, announced that Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) would join the Nikkei 300 Index, and announced that Dic Corp (4631 JP) would replace Nisshin Steel in the Nikkei Stock Average, better known as the Nikkei 225.The only one which matters is the Nikkei 225 (the other two have tiny tracking), and this is not a huge index trade as both Nisshin Steel and DIC are deemed 500 yen par value stocks.This is an event one could "miss."And it will happen on Christmas Day, after a long weekend for Japan traders. 

Small Potatoes Nikkei 225 Changes on Christmas Day

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Since 2013 when the % of Buy recommendation to total hit a recently low of 43%, that percentage has slowly been inching upward to the current level of 50%. Over the same time, the % of Sell recommendation has fallen to a 10-year low of 6%. That means that 44% of recommendations are Hold, but that is a different story.<h2>TOPIX - % of BUY Recommendations to Total</h2><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/049/241/original/4.png?1523310567" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="49241"></figure>As you can see from the chart above, the % of Buy recommendations bottomed out during the GFC and rebound up to 56% in 2010. Since 2012 the…

Since 2013 when the % of Buy recommendation to total hit a recently low of 43%, that percentage has slowly been inching upward to the current level of 50%. Over the same time, the % of Sell recommendation has fallen to a 10-year low of 6%. That means that 44% of recommendations are Hold, but that is a different story.TOPIX - % of BUY Recommendations to TotalAs you can see from the chart above, the % of Buy recommendations bottomed out during the GFC and rebound up to 56% in 2010. Since 2012 the…

Half of Recommendations on TOPIX Companies Are BUY. Highest Since 2011....

Japan

DIC Corp. is a chemical company that specializes in printing inks, organic pigments, and thermosetting resins.  The Company also manufactures polymers, specialty plastics and compounds, and others which include building materials, pressure-sensitive adhesives materials, and biochemicals.

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Dic Corp (4631 JP)

Toppan Printing Bid To Take Over Subsidiary Tosho Printing

On 13 May 2019, along with earnings, Toppan Printing (7911 JP) and subsidiary Tosho Printing (7913 JP) announced a merger where Toppan will acquire...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/Peak & Ex-Growth

LARGE CAP RESULTS & REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions...

Campbell Gunn

Japan: What to Buy & Sell if the ¥ Rises to 90

CURRENCY DRIVER - The ¥/US$ cross rate has strengthened by 5.3% since the recent US$ peak of ¥114.20 on November 12th 2018, which has led some FX...

Campbell Gunn

Small Potatoes Nikkei 225 Changes on Christmas Day

Specialty steel maker Nisshin Steel (5413 JP) is slated to merge with parent company Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal (5401 JP) as of January 1,...

Travis Lundy

Half of Recommendations on TOPIX Companies Are BUY. Highest Since 2011....

Since 2013 when the % of Buy recommendation to total hit a recently low of 43%, that percentage has slowly been inching upward to the current level...

Custom Products Group

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Toppan Printing Bid To Take Over Subsidiary Tosho Printing

On 13 May 2019, along with earnings, Toppan Printing (7911 JP) and subsidiary Tosho Printing (7913 JP) announced a merger where Toppan will acquire...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/​Peak & Ex-Growth

LARGE CAP RESULTS & REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions...

Campbell Gunn

Japan: What to Buy & Sell if the ¥ Rises to 90

CURRENCY DRIVER - The ¥/US$ cross rate has strengthened by 5.3% since the recent US$ peak of ¥114.20 on November 12th 2018, which has led some FX...

Campbell Gunn

Small Potatoes Nikkei 225 Changes on Christmas Day

Specialty steel maker Nisshin Steel (5413 JP) is slated to merge with parent company Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal (5401 JP) as of January 1,...

Travis Lundy

Half of Recommendations on TOPIX Companies Are BUY. Highest Since 2011....

Since 2013 when the % of Buy recommendation to total hit a recently low of 43%, that percentage has slowly been inching upward to the current level...

Custom Products Group

🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/Peak & Ex-Growth