External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Tabungan Negara Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>BBTN reported net profit of Rp3.0tr (-14% yoy) in FY24, missing our and consensus’ estimate on lower NIM and higher CIR. </li><li>BBTN’s 4Q24 net profit of Rp92bn (+59% yoy, -22% qoq) was boosted by a strong recovery income, but opex remained elevated. </li><li>We lowered our FY25-26F est. by 12-8% on higher CoC projection. Maintain Buy rating for BBTN with a lower TP of Rp1,100.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BBTN reported net profit of Rp3.0tr (-14% yoy) in FY24, missing our and consensus’ estimate on lower NIM and higher CIR. BBTN’s 4Q24 net profit of Rp92bn (+59% yoy, -22% qoq) was boosted by a strong recovery income, but opex remained elevated. We lowered our FY25-26F est. by 12-8% on higher CoC projection. Maintain Buy rating for BBTN with a lower TP of Rp1,100.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BBTN.IJ - FY24 Results: Missing Estimates on Lower NIM and Persistent Higher Operating Costs

<ul><li>Aligned with the government housing program, BBTN is poised to capture growth in the subsidized mortgage segment.</li><li>We believe the newly proposed scheme may lift BBTN’s NIM, as we expect the rising EA yield to outpace the rising CoF.</li><li>We re-initiate coverage with a BUY rating and an inverse CoE GGMbased TP of Rp1,500, implying a fair value PBV of 0.6x.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aligned with the government housing program, BBTN is poised to capture growth in the subsidized mortgage segment.We believe the newly proposed scheme may lift BBTN’s NIM, as we expect the rising EA yield to outpace the rising CoF.We re-initiate coverage with a BUY rating and an inverse CoE GGMbased TP of Rp1,500, implying a fair value PBV of 0.6x.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BBTN IJ - Pioneering Financial Inclusion Through the New Govt. Housing Program;

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>BMRI continues to take loan market share with growth well higher than average, due to its large balance sheet and focus on mining</li>
<li>Despite this, its NPL ratio has been steady for several periods, suggesting good underwriting, loan emphasis</li>
<li>ROA recent peak was 3.14% but the bank is near there now at 2.97%, growing in recent quarters, and likely to continue</li>
</ul>


BMRI continues to take loan market share with growth well higher than average, due to its large balance sheet and focus on mining
Despite this, its NPL ratio has been steady for several periods, suggesting good underwriting, loan emphasis
ROA recent peak was 3.14% but the bank is near there now at 2.97%, growing in recent quarters, and likely to continue


2025 High Conviction - BMRI Strong Loan Growth at 2x Industry, Better Fees and Lower Costs/Assets

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 constituent change for the IDX30 Index and 2 changes for the IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 30 April.</li>
<li>The largest passive flows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago Tbk PT</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-tabungan-negara-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:731:1" rel="noopener">Bank Tabungan Negara Persero</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adaro-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6061:1" rel="noopener">Adaro Energy</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak-com-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak.com PT Tbk</a>.</li>
<li>There are only 4 days to implementation, so there could be relatively big moves on the changes to the IDX30 Index.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 constituent change for the IDX30 Index and 2 changes for the IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 30 April.
The largest passive flows are expected in Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Bank Jago Tbk PT, Bank Mandiri Persero, Bank Tabungan Negara Persero, Adaro Energy and Bukalapak.com PT Tbk.
There are only 4 days to implementation, so there could be relatively big moves on the changes to the IDX30 Index.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Few Changes

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Bank valuations have derated, but PBV valuations have yet to hit bottom in the past two downcycles, i.e., 2015-2016 and 2019-2020.</li><li>We see banks continuing to face asset quality risk and tight liquidity, with persistent foreign outflows and local fund position still elevated.</li><li>Maintain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our top pick, followed by BTPS and BRIS given their better CoF and NPL outlooks.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank valuations have derated, but PBV valuations have yet to hit bottom in the past two downcycles, i.e., 2015-2016 and 2019-2020.We see banks continuing to face asset quality risk and tight liquidity, with persistent foreign outflows and local fund position still elevated.Maintain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our top pick, followed by BTPS and BRIS given their better CoF and NPL outlooks.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: Beware of Catching the Falling Knives (NEUTRAL)

Indonesia

PT Bank Tabungan Negara Persero Tbk provides commercial banking services.

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Bank Tabungan Negara Persero (BBTN IJ)

BBTN.IJ - FY24 Results: Missing Estimates on Lower NIM and Persistent Higher Operating Costs

BBTN’s 4Q24 net profit of Rp92bn (+59% yoy, -22% qoq) was boosted by a strong recovery income, but opex remained elevated. We lowered our FY25-26F...

BRI Danareksa Research

BBTN IJ - Pioneering Financial Inclusion Through the New Govt. Housing Program;

Aligned with the government housing program, BBTN is poised to capture growth in the subsidized mortgage segment. We believe the newly proposed...

BRI Danareksa Research

2025 High Conviction - BMRI Strong Loan Growth at 2x Industry, Better Fees and Lower Costs/Assets

BMRI is taking market share of loans, growing strongly, with no worsening in credit metrics. Slightly lower NIM is offset by higher fees, and also...

Daniel Tabbush

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Few Changes

There is 1 constituent change for the IDX30 and 2 for the IDX80, nothing for the LQ45. Flow and impact are material for the IDX30 index changes.

Brian Freitas

Banks: Beware of Catching the Falling Knives (NEUTRAL)

Bank valuations have derated, but PBV valuations have yet to hit bottom in the past two downcycles, i.e., 2015-2016 and 2019-2020.

BRI Danareksa Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

BBTN.IJ - FY24 Results: Missing Estimates on Lower NIM and Persistent Higher Operating Costs

BBTN’s 4Q24 net profit of Rp92bn (+59% yoy, -22% qoq) was boosted by a strong recovery income, but opex remained elevated. We lowered our FY25-26F...

BRI Danareksa Research

BBTN IJ - Pioneering Financial Inclusion Through the New Govt. Housing Program;

Aligned with the government housing program, BBTN is poised to capture growth in the subsidized mortgage segment. We believe the newly proposed...

BRI Danareksa Research

2025 High Conviction - BMRI Strong Loan Growth at 2x Industry, Better Fees and Lower Costs/Assets

BMRI is taking market share of loans, growing strongly, with no worsening in credit metrics. Slightly lower NIM is offset by higher fees, and also...

Daniel Tabbush

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Few Changes

There is 1 constituent change for the IDX30 and 2 for the IDX80, nothing for the LQ45. Flow and impact are material for the IDX30 index changes.

Brian Freitas

Banks: Beware of Catching the Falling Knives (NEUTRAL)

Bank valuations have derated, but PBV valuations have yet to hit bottom in the past two downcycles, i.e., 2015-2016 and 2019-2020.

BRI Danareksa Research

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Few Changes