External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Tabungan Negara Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>BBTN reported net profit of Rp3.0tr (-14% yoy) in FY24, missing our and consensus’ estimate on lower NIM and higher CIR. </li><li>BBTN’s 4Q24 net profit of Rp92bn (+59% yoy, -22% qoq) was boosted by a strong recovery income, but opex remained elevated. </li><li>We lowered our FY25-26F est. by 12-8% on higher CoC projection. Maintain Buy rating for BBTN with a lower TP of Rp1,100.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BBTN reported net profit of Rp3.0tr (-14% yoy) in FY24, missing our and consensus’ estimate on lower NIM and higher CIR. BBTN’s 4Q24 net profit of Rp92bn (+59% yoy, -22% qoq) was boosted by a strong recovery income, but opex remained elevated. We lowered our FY25-26F est. by 12-8% on higher CoC projection. Maintain Buy rating for BBTN with a lower TP of Rp1,100.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BBTN.IJ - FY24 Results: Missing Estimates on Lower NIM and Persistent Higher Operating Costs

<ul><li>Aligned with the government housing program, BBTN is poised to capture growth in the subsidized mortgage segment.</li><li>We believe the newly proposed scheme may lift BBTN’s NIM, as we expect the rising EA yield to outpace the rising CoF.</li><li>We re-initiate coverage with a BUY rating and an inverse CoE GGMbased TP of Rp1,500, implying a fair value PBV of 0.6x.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aligned with the government housing program, BBTN is poised to capture growth in the subsidized mortgage segment.We believe the newly proposed scheme may lift BBTN’s NIM, as we expect the rising EA yield to outpace the rising CoF.We re-initiate coverage with a BUY rating and an inverse CoE GGMbased TP of Rp1,500, implying a fair value PBV of 0.6x.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BBTN IJ - Pioneering Financial Inclusion Through the New Govt. Housing Program;

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>BMRI continues to take loan market share with growth well higher than average, due to its large balance sheet and focus on mining</li>
<li>Despite this, its NPL ratio has been steady for several periods, suggesting good underwriting, loan emphasis</li>
<li>ROA recent peak was 3.14% but the bank is near there now at 2.97%, growing in recent quarters, and likely to continue</li>
</ul>


BMRI continues to take loan market share with growth well higher than average, due to its large balance sheet and focus on mining
Despite this, its NPL ratio has been steady for several periods, suggesting good underwriting, loan emphasis
ROA recent peak was 3.14% but the bank is near there now at 2.97%, growing in recent quarters, and likely to continue


2025 High Conviction - BMRI Strong Loan Growth at 2x Industry, Better Fees and Lower Costs/Assets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Bank valuations have derated, but PBV valuations have yet to hit bottom in the past two downcycles, i.e., 2015-2016 and 2019-2020.</li><li>We see banks continuing to face asset quality risk and tight liquidity, with persistent foreign outflows and local fund position still elevated.</li><li>Maintain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our top pick, followed by BTPS and BRIS given their better CoF and NPL outlooks.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank valuations have derated, but PBV valuations have yet to hit bottom in the past two downcycles, i.e., 2015-2016 and 2019-2020.We see banks continuing to face asset quality risk and tight liquidity, with persistent foreign outflows and local fund position still elevated.Maintain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our top pick, followed by BTPS and BRIS given their better CoF and NPL outlooks.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: Beware of Catching the Falling Knives (NEUTRAL)

<ul><li>An early rate cut may ease liquidity pressure faster, while some loans and marketable securities are at risk of lower yield. </li><li>Banking sector share prices have a high negative correlation with USD/IDR, which could put the sector under selling pressure once again.</li><li>Share price rally provides a window to neutralize position amid our concern on asset quality. We maintain our Neutral rating.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

An early rate cut may ease liquidity pressure faster, while some loans and marketable securities are at risk of lower yield. Banking sector share prices have a high negative correlation with USD/IDR, which could put the sector under selling pressure once again.Share price rally provides a window to neutralize position amid our concern on asset quality. We maintain our Neutral rating.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: Liquidity May Ease Faster, but Stable Rupiah Is Needed for the Rally to Sustain (NEUTRAL)

Indonesia

PT Bank Tabungan Negara Persero Tbk provides commercial banking services.

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Bank Tabungan Negara Persero (BBTN IJ)

BBTN.IJ - FY24 Results: Missing Estimates on Lower NIM and Persistent Higher Operating Costs

BBTN’s 4Q24 net profit of Rp92bn (+59% yoy, -22% qoq) was boosted by a strong recovery income, but opex remained elevated. We lowered our FY25-26F...

BRI Danareksa Research

BBTN IJ - Pioneering Financial Inclusion Through the New Govt. Housing Program;

Aligned with the government housing program, BBTN is poised to capture growth in the subsidized mortgage segment. We believe the newly proposed...

BRI Danareksa Research

2025 High Conviction - BMRI Strong Loan Growth at 2x Industry, Better Fees and Lower Costs/Assets

BMRI is taking market share of loans, growing strongly, with no worsening in credit metrics. Slightly lower NIM is offset by higher fees, and also...

Daniel Tabbush

Banks: Beware of Catching the Falling Knives (NEUTRAL)

Bank valuations have derated, but PBV valuations have yet to hit bottom in the past two downcycles, i.e., 2015-2016 and 2019-2020.

BRI Danareksa Research

Banks: Liquidity May Ease Faster, but Stable Rupiah Is Needed for the Rally to Sustain (NEUTRAL)

An early rate cut may ease liquidity pressure faster, while some loans and marketable securities are at risk of lower yield.

BRI Danareksa Research

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