Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The benchmark index Nikkei 225 closed the week at 32,304 – 87 points lower than the week before. Blame it on the global tech sell-off</li>
<li>Nidec reported Q1 earnings that trounced analyst expectations – mine included. The stock rose 13% over the week</li>
<li>BayCurrent reported Q1 earnings that missed Street expectations. As Japan earnings season moves into full gear, expect more single stock volatility</li>
</ul>


The benchmark index Nikkei 225 closed the week at 32,304 – 87 points lower than the week before. Blame it on the global tech sell-off
Nidec reported Q1 earnings that trounced analyst expectations – mine included. The stock rose 13% over the week
BayCurrent reported Q1 earnings that missed Street expectations. As Japan earnings season moves into full gear, expect more single stock volatility


Japan Weekly | Nidec, Fast Retailing, BayCurrent

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nidec reported strong Q1 results - operating profit of ¥60.2 billion (+35% YoY), significantly above Street expectations of ¥45 billion</li>
<li>The big positive was a rebound in profitability following successful structural cost cuts last year. The key negative is a cut to unit shipments for key growth driver, E-axles. </li>
<li>We remain bearish for now given valuation of 25x EV/EBIT.  We are not sure that the new growth driver in Motion &amp; Energy will offset lowered expectations for EVs. </li>
</ul>


Nidec reported strong Q1 results - operating profit of ¥60.2 billion (+35% YoY), significantly above Street expectations of ¥45 billion
The big positive was a rebound in profitability following successful structural cost cuts last year. The key negative is a cut to unit shipments for key growth driver, E-axles. 
We remain bearish for now given valuation of 25x EV/EBIT.  We are not sure that the new growth driver in Motion &amp; Energy will offset lowered expectations for EVs. 


Nidec (6594) | Big Revision Down to E-Axle Sales

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last year <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec Corp (6594 JP)</a> approached machine tool maker <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takisawa-machine-tool-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7344:1" rel="noopener">Takisawa Machine Tool (6121 JP)</a> interested in an integration with their sub. Takisawa said "Talk to the hand." </li>
<li>Now Nidec - a blue chip (from Kyoto no less, which traditionally abhors hostile activity) - has gone hostile on Takisawa bidding 65-100% depending how you see undisturbed.</li>
<li>Lots of moving parts on this one, but in the end, Retail probably decides this.</li>
</ul>


Last year Nidec Corp (6594 JP) approached machine tool maker Takisawa Machine Tool (6121 JP) interested in an integration with their sub. Takisawa said "Talk to the hand." 
Now Nidec - a blue chip (from Kyoto no less, which traditionally abhors hostile activity) - has gone hostile on Takisawa bidding 65-100% depending how you see undisturbed.
Lots of moving parts on this one, but in the end, Retail probably decides this.


Nidec (6594) Goes Hostile On Takisawa Machine Tool (6121) - I've Got 🍿🍿

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX -0.4%  1st down day  7 as Markets price in Peak rates/rate declines;  SPX Looks risky here(More BELOW); China revamps NEV subsidies; Putin places tactical Nukes in Belarus..mmm</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs flat vs Cash;  USDJPY 141.8 post-BOJ on Friday;  NKY wins for 10th week; Kishida survives no-confidence motion; TEPCO goes full into Renewables; Lawsons makes a China push</li>
<li>NUGGET. SBI HD(8473) - Carbon Trading, Jumping in Early in what sets up to be a major opportunity</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX -0.4%  1st down day  7 as Markets price in Peak rates/rate declines;  SPX Looks risky here(More BELOW); China revamps NEV subsidies; Putin places tactical Nukes in Belarus..mmm
JAPAN. NKY Futs flat vs Cash;  USDJPY 141.8 post-BOJ on Friday;  NKY wins for 10th week; Kishida survives no-confidence motion; TEPCO goes full into Renewables; Lawsons makes a China push
NUGGET. SBI HD(8473) - Carbon Trading, Jumping in Early in what sets up to be a major opportunity


Ohayo Japan | US Equities-Risks Elevated? ; NUGGET: SBI HD(8473)-Carbon Trading, Jumping in Early

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. NDX100 +1.8%  SOX +3.3% vs. SPX +0.9% DOW +0.6%; Tech back ahead of Fed; Energy a different story as Oil fell on D-S worries; All eyes remain on CPI/Fed</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.7% premium vs Cash; Japan lead yesterday vs US..rarity; Expect continued Equity follow through; Seino HD(9076) -Massive Buyback, Div hike; TOYOTA-Path to Solid State Battery Commercialization?</li>
<li>NUGGET. Nidec Succession Resolution in Sight, but Nagamori Premium May Dissappear</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. NDX100 +1.8%  SOX +3.3% vs. SPX +0.9% DOW +0.6%; Tech back ahead of Fed; Energy a different story as Oil fell on D-S worries; All eyes remain on CPI/Fed
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.7% premium vs Cash; Japan lead yesterday vs US..rarity; Expect continued Equity follow through; Seino HD(9076) -Massive Buyback, Div hike; TOYOTA-Path to Solid State Battery Commercialization?
NUGGET. Nidec Succession Resolution in Sight, but Nagamori Premium May Dissappear


Ohayo Japan |BIG TECH BACK ! NUGGET: Nidec Succession Headaches-Resolution in Sight But...

Japan

NIDEC CORPORATION is the world's leading manufacturer of small precision motors mainly used in HDD and optical disk drives. The company has extended its focus to the home appliance and automotive markets. NIDEC is active in M&A and its subsidiaries include the world's leading manufacturers of LCD panel handling robots and camera shutters.

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Nidec Corp (6594 JP)

Japan Weekly | Nidec, Fast Retailing, BayCurrent

The benchmark index Nikkei 225 closed the week at 32,304 – 87 points lower than the week before. Blame it on the global tech sell-off. We highlight...

Mark Chadwick

Nidec (6594) | Big Revision Down to E-Axle Sales

We remain bearish for now given valuation of 25x EV/EBIT. We are not sure that the new growth driver in Motion & Energy will offset lowered...

Mark Chadwick

Nidec (6594) Goes Hostile On Takisawa Machine Tool (6121) - I've Got 🍿🍿

Japan Blue Chip Nidec has gone hostile on a smallcap who didn't entertain its takeover proposal a year ago. Not a done deal. Not a easy deal. But...

Travis Lundy

Ohayo Japan | US Equities-Risks Elevated? ; NUGGET: SBI HD(8473)-Carbon Trading, Jumping in Early

US Equities looks more RISK than reward to us; NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 141.8 post-BOJ on Friday; NKY wins for 10th week; Kishida survives...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan |BIG TECH BACK ! NUGGET: Nidec Succession Headaches-Resolution in Sight But...

Tech Back as US Equities Well Bid; NKY Futs +0.7% premium vs Cash; ; Seino HD(9076) - Massive Buyback, Div hike; TOYOTA - Sees path to Solid State...

Mark Chadwick

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