Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last May I proposed a model for thinking about the appropriate discount of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-kyoto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5248:1" rel="noopener">Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP)</a> vs its giant equity portfolio and small operations. It was a sell.</li>
<li>In December, the bank changed its shareholder return ratio, which indicated less value destruction, and tighter appropriate discount. The shares rallied and discount narrowed. </li>
<li>Now the Shares Adjusted for Banking Ops Valuation have seen the discount to After-Tax Equity Portfolio Valuation widen sharply in the past 10 days. So here's the hedging model.</li>
</ul>


Last May I proposed a model for thinking about the appropriate discount of Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP) vs its giant equity portfolio and small operations. It was a sell.
In December, the bank changed its shareholder return ratio, which indicated less value destruction, and tighter appropriate discount. The shares rallied and discount narrowed. 
Now the Shares Adjusted for Banking Ops Valuation have seen the discount to After-Tax Equity Portfolio Valuation widen sharply in the past 10 days. So here's the hedging model.


Bank of Kyoto (8369) - A Complicated Risk Model Clarified

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Nidec faces the issue of a decline in volumes for HDD motors and appears to be betting the farm on capturing the top share for EV traction motors. We aren’t at all convinced that they can, but even if they do, the early signs are that that might not be as lucrative as they imagined.</p>

Nidec faces the issue of a decline in volumes for HDD motors and appears to be betting the farm on capturing the top share for EV traction motors. We aren’t at all convinced that they can, but even if they do, the early signs are that that might not be as lucrative as they imagined.

Nidec – Early Results for the EV Business Look Terrible

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Consolidated net sales increased by +4.4% YoY to ¥594,026 million</li>
<li>Operating profit increased by 90% YoY to ¥53,562 million, but were down 3.7% QoQ.</li>
<li>Full-Year guidance for OP was revised down by 20% to ¥180,000 million. We remain bullish on long-term structural electrification thesis</li>
</ul>


Consolidated net sales increased by +4.4% YoY to ¥594,026 million
Operating profit increased by 90% YoY to ¥53,562 million, but were down 3.7% QoQ.
Full-Year guidance for OP was revised down by 20% to ¥180,000 million. We remain bullish on long-term structural electrification thesis


Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Independent Insight Provider

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Tech laggards bought in the US showing many in the market scrambling to catch the upside after the rapid snapback from last weeks drop.</li>
<li>Server related strength after Cisco numbers may see sentiment for Nidec finally improving with its cooling modules business emerging as an earnings driver.</li>
<li>Strong numbers for Coherent confirm the positive trends for its optical transceiver business which points to continued upside for AI data center plays</li>
</ul>


Tech laggards bought in the US showing many in the market scrambling to catch the upside after the rapid snapback from last weeks drop.
Server related strength after Cisco numbers may see sentiment for Nidec finally improving with its cooling modules business emerging as an earnings driver.
Strong numbers for Coherent confirm the positive trends for its optical transceiver business which points to continued upside for AI data center plays


Japan Morning Connection: Sanken Electric, Nidec, Asahi Intecc

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding work, in this note we look to summarize our work so far by looking at where most of the selling will likely come.</li>
<li>Of the seven companies that we have looked at so far, collectively they have around US$102bn worth of shares to sell in 118 companies. </li>
<li>Of these, they have a combined stake of over US$1bn in 23 companies.</li>
</ul>


Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding work, in this note we look to summarize our work so far by looking at where most of the selling will likely come.
Of the seven companies that we have looked at so far, collectively they have around US$102bn worth of shares to sell in 118 companies. 
Of these, they have a combined stake of over US$1bn in 23 companies.


Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Japan

NIDEC CORPORATION is the world's leading manufacturer of small precision motors mainly used in HDD and optical disk drives. The company has extended its focus to the home appliance and automotive markets. NIDEC is active in M&A and its subsidiaries include the world's leading manufacturers of LCD panel handling robots and camera shutters.

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Nidec Corp (6594 JP)

Bank of Kyoto (8369) - A Complicated Risk Model Clarified

The Bank of Kyoto (8369) model is clarified so dynamic hedging ratios depend on regional bank PBRs. The model suggests it's at the cheap end of its...

Travis Lundy

Nidec – Early Results for the EV Business Look Terrible

Nidec faces declining volumes for HDD motors and is betting the farm on capturing the top share for EV traction motors but early signs are that...

Mio Kato

Nidec (6594) | A Mixed Quarter

Japanese company's net sales increased by 4.4% YoY, operating profit rose by 90% YoY but decreased by 3.7% QoQ, and full-year guidance for...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Sanken Electric, Nidec, Asahi Intecc

US tech laggards are now catching up after a rapid rebound, server-related strength boosts Nidec's sentiment, and Coherent's strong numbers...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Toyotal has just announced that it will buy back around 290m (around 2% of the stock) of its own shares from MS&AD, Tokio Marine, MUFG and SMFG. In...

Sumeet Singh

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Bank of Kyoto (8369) - A Complicated Risk Model Clarified

The Bank of Kyoto (8369) model is clarified so dynamic hedging ratios depend on regional bank PBRs. The model suggests it's at the cheap end of its...

Travis Lundy

Nidec – Early Results for the EV Business Look Terrible

Nidec faces declining volumes for HDD motors and is betting the farm on capturing the top share for EV traction motors but early signs are that...

Mio Kato

Nidec (6594) | A Mixed Quarter

​Japanese company's net sales increased by 4.4% YoY, operating profit rose by 90% YoY but decreased by 3.7% QoQ, and full-year guidance for...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Sanken Electric, Nidec, Asahi Intecc

​US tech laggards are now catching up after a rapid rebound, server-related strength boosts Nidec's sentiment, and Coherent's strong numbers...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Toyotal has just announced that it will buy back around 290m (around 2% of the stock) of its own shares from MS&AD, Tokio Marine, MUFG and SMFG. In...

Sumeet Singh

Japanese company's net sales increased by 4.4% YoY, operating profit rose by 90% YoY but decreased by 3.7% QoQ, and full-year guidance for...

US tech laggards are now catching up after a rapid rebound, server-related strength boosts Nidec's sentiment, and Coherent's strong numbers...