'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/121/977/original/2020-03-09_14-29-36.png?1583731808" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="121977"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Stoxx.com</div>ALTMAN'S Z-SCORE - Dr Edward Altman's Z-Score has been in use for over 50 years as a statistical model to calculate the probability of bankruptcy which built on the work of William Beaver and R.A. Fisher. Altman's original article (attached below) was published in the September 1968 issue of the Journal of Finance when he was an assistant professor of finance at NYU Stern.  The 'classic' Z-Score sampled publically-traded manufacturing companies. Later versions were formulated for private companies, non-manufacturing companies and emerging markets.  The model is between 80% and 90% accurate in predicting bankruptcy one year ahead of the event, while the rate of false positives has been between 15% and 20%.APPLICATION TO JAPAN - We have been using Altman Z-Scores in Japan since the mid-1980s. We have found the Scores to be reasonably predictive, as has been confirmed by several academic papers, including  <a href="https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/A-Model-of-Bankruptcy-Prediction%3A-Calibration-of/5565168f75b578ba28115ef314acbdd387f82483" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gurau (2013)</a>. The persistence of a large number of 'zombie' companies supported by banks or keiretsu 'relatives' has, however, reduced the overall 'hit' rate for larger listed companies. The following charts show a timeline of the Altman Z-Score and Market Capitalisation for several memorable Japanese corporate bankruptcies. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/122/005/original/2020-03-09_15-53-11.png?1583736804" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="122005"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/122/006/original/2020-03-09_15-54-52.png?1583736903" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="122006"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/122/007/original/2020-03-09_15-56-58.png?1583737032" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="122007"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/122/009/original/2020-03-09_15-59-08.png?1583737161" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="122009"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/122/011/original/2020-03-09_16-03-28.png?1583737425" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="122011"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><div class="content-highlight">This Insight is the second part of a three-part series attempting to highlight those Japanese companies that at the highest risk from the 2020 Covid-19 recession. The first focused on the<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-who-s-swimming-naked-part-1-audit-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37265" rel="noopener">Audit Score</a>, while a forthcoming Insight will look at Cumulative Cash Flows.</div>

Source • Stoxx.comALTMAN'S Z-SCORE - Dr Edward Altman's Z-Score has been in use for over 50 years as a statistical model to calculate the probability of bankruptcy which built on the work of William Beaver and R.A. Fisher. Altman's original article (attached below) was published in the September 1968 issue of the Journal of Finance when he was an assistant professor of finance at NYU Stern.  The 'classic' Z-Score sampled publically-traded manufacturing companies. Later versions were formulated for private companies, non-manufacturing companies and emerging markets.  The model is between 80% and 90% accurate in predicting bankruptcy one year ahead of the event, while the rate of false positives has been between 15% and 20%.APPLICATION TO JAPAN - We have been using Altman Z-Scores in Japan since the mid-1980s. We have found the Scores to be reasonably predictive, as has been confirmed by several academic papers, including  Gurau (2013). The persistence of a large number of 'zombie' companies supported by banks or keiretsu 'relatives' has, however, reduced the overall 'hit' rate for larger listed companies. The following charts show a timeline of the Altman Z-Score and Market Capitalisation for several memorable Japanese corporate bankruptcies. Source • Japan AnalyticsThis Insight is the second part of a three-part series attempting to highlight those Japanese companies that at the highest risk from the 2020 Covid-19 recession. The first focused on theAudit Score, while a forthcoming Insight will look at Cumulative Cash Flows.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Who’s Swimming Naked? > Part 2: Altman Z-Score

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Markets plunged overnight as fears rose over COVID-19 potentially becoming a full-blown global pandemic. We highlight several of the most important developments around the world as consumer defer spend and global supply chains look increasingly vulnerable from surging infections outside of China.We continue to advise investors to hold digital tech assets that can benefit from the virus outbreak over traditional offline businesses, and recommend paring down overall equity exposure.

Markets plunged overnight as fears rose over COVID-19 potentially becoming a full-blown global pandemic. We highlight several of the most important developments around the world as consumer defer spend and global supply chains look increasingly vulnerable from surging infections outside of China.We continue to advise investors to hold digital tech assets that can benefit from the virus outbreak over traditional offline businesses, and recommend paring down overall equity exposure.

COVID-19 Sparks Economic Pandemic as Cases Outside China Surge

As a follow up to our note <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/evidence-of-global-slowdown-accumulates-as-stores-remain-closed-and-supply-chains-are-crippled" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Evidence of Global Slowdown Accumulates as Stores Remain Closed and Supply Chains Are Crippled</a>, reports that business impacts have increased are starting to take a more regional or even global flavor.Despite some factories in China resuming operation on 10th February, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/some-factories-in-china-extend-shutdowns-amid-coronavirus-outbreak.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">several regions have extended shutdowns</a> and labor supply remains restricted due to quarantines. This has caused many factories to delay resuming operations with the few facilities that have resumed operations remaining severely under capacity. We are now seeing a follow-on impact with reports of non-China based factories reporting production halts.

As a follow up to our note Evidence of Global Slowdown Accumulates as Stores Remain Closed and Supply Chains Are Crippled, reports that business impacts have increased are starting to take a more regional or even global flavor.Despite some factories in China resuming operation on 10th February, several regions have extended shutdowns and labor supply remains restricted due to quarantines. This has caused many factories to delay resuming operations with the few facilities that have resumed operations remaining severely under capacity. We are now seeing a follow-on impact with reports of non-China based factories reporting production halts.

Factories Outside of China Now Halting Production as Virus Impact Expands

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/117/756/original/2020-02-14_05-11-41.png?1581624901" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="117756"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/117/760/original/2020-02-14_05-38-10.png?1581626321" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="117760"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>13TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - The penultimate day of this results 'season' saw 402 results and 224 forecast or revision announcements.  Our results Score lost another 7 basis points; however, positive initial annual forecasts from several December year-end companies including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dentsu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12434:1" rel="noopener">Dentsu  (4324 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unicharm-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6246:1" rel="noopener">Unicharm (8113 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10482:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Group (2502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coca-cola-bottlers-japan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20051:1" rel="noopener">Coca Cola Bottlers Japan (2579 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suntory-beverage-food-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8218:1" rel="noopener">Suntory Beverage &amp; Food (2587 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcdonald-s-holdings-co-japan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:985:1" rel="noopener">Mcdonald's Japan (2702 JP)</a> added 34 bps to the Forecast/Revision Score. The 'gap' between the two Scores is the largest since mid-2016, and a large gap is a precondition for setting a cycle low. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/117/757/original/2020-02-14_05-14-40.png?1581625349" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="117757"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>SECTOR TIMELINE - These initial forecasts were the prime driver of the on-day changes in our Sector Timeline, which saw gains for Restaurants,Media, Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, and Other Consumer Products. Time will tell if this optimism is well-founded or not.

Source • Japan Analytics13TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - The penultimate day of this results 'season' saw 402 results and 224 forecast or revision announcements.  Our results Score lost another 7 basis points; however, positive initial annual forecasts from several December year-end companies including Dentsu  (4324 JP), Unicharm (8113 JP), Asahi Group (2502 JP), Coca Cola Bottlers Japan (2579 JP), Suntory Beverage &amp; Food (2587 JP), and Mcdonald's Japan (2702 JP) added 34 bps to the Forecast/Revision Score. The 'gap' between the two Scores is the largest since mid-2016, and a large gap is a precondition for setting a cycle low. Source • Japan AnalyticsSECTOR TIMELINE - These initial forecasts were the prime driver of the on-day changes in our Sector Timeline, which saw gains for Restaurants,Media, Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, and Other Consumer Products. Time will tell if this optimism is well-founded or not.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 13th February ▲2587 4612 8113 ▼ 7201 4004 4912

Evidence of an impending global slowdown continues to accumulate as stores remain closed across China, factories reduce capacity, and workers are put on unpaid leave. Moreover, should the virus truly spread to other countries in the west like the USA or in Europe, we see heightened risks of similar measures being implemented there - putting further strain on global growth.We believe investors should use the current market recovery to reduce equity exposure and shift into defensive or digital economy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/surging-chinese-demand-for-contactless-delivery-will-accelerate-drone-adoption-in-e-commerce" target="_blank" rel="noopener">"contactless" businesses</a>in order to position prudently for a potential worsening of the epidemic.We cover this in more detail in our note <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tencent-the-best-anchor-for-your-portfolio-in-the-coming-coronavirus-storm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36346" rel="noopener">Tencent: The Best Anchor for Your Portfolio In the Coming Coronavirus Storm</a>.

Evidence of an impending global slowdown continues to accumulate as stores remain closed across China, factories reduce capacity, and workers are put on unpaid leave. Moreover, should the virus truly spread to other countries in the west like the USA or in Europe, we see heightened risks of similar measures being implemented there - putting further strain on global growth.We believe investors should use the current market recovery to reduce equity exposure and shift into defensive or digital economy "contactless" businessesin order to position prudently for a potential worsening of the epidemic.We cover this in more detail in our note Tencent: The Best Anchor for Your Portfolio In the Coming Coronavirus Storm.

Evidence of Global Slowdown Accumulates as Stores Remain Closed and Supply Chains Are Crippled

Japan

NISSAN MOTOR CO., LTD. manufactures and distributes automobiles and related parts. It also provides financing services. Nissan delivers a comprehensive range of products under various brands. The Company manufactures in Japan, the United States, Mexico, the United Kingdom and many other countries.

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Nissan Motor (7201 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Who’s Swimming Naked? > Part 2: Altman Z-Score

ALTMAN'S Z-SCORE - Dr Edward Altman's Z-Score has been in use for over 50 years as a statistical model to calculate the probability of bankruptcy...

Campbell Gunn

COVID-19 Sparks Economic Pandemic as Cases Outside China Surge

Markets plunged overnight as fears rose over COVID-19 potentially becoming a full-blown global pandemic. We highlight several of the most important...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Factories Outside of China Now Halting Production as Virus Impact Expands

As a follow up to our note Evidence of Global Slowdown Accumulates as Stores Remain Closed and Supply Chains Are Crippled, reports that business...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 13th February ▲2587 4612 8113 ▼ 7201 4004 4912

13TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - The penultimate day of this results 'season' saw 402 results and 224 forecast or revision announcements. Our results Score...

Campbell Gunn

Evidence of Global Slowdown Accumulates as Stores Remain Closed and Supply Chains Are Crippled

Evidence of an impending global slowdown continues to accumulate as stores remain closed across China, factories reduce capacity, and workers are...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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