Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Increased exchange rate volatility affects the ADR premium, but past patterns show that exchange rate and ADR premium directions may not always align, requiring consideration of specific contextual factors.</li>
<li>If the won appreciates below the 1,300s range, overseas institutions may shift to asymmetric selling of underlying shares for foreign exchange profit, as shown by rising ADR premiums.</li>
<li>We should watch for peak conditions to capture significant ADR premiums. Trading options include borrowing underlying shares for ADR conversion, even under the current short-selling ban.</li>
</ul>


Increased exchange rate volatility affects the ADR premium, but past patterns show that exchange rate and ADR premium directions may not always align, requiring consideration of specific contextual factors.
If the won appreciates below the 1,300s range, overseas institutions may shift to asymmetric selling of underlying shares for foreign exchange profit, as shown by rising ADR premiums.
We should watch for peak conditions to capture significant ADR premiums. Trading options include borrowing underlying shares for ADR conversion, even under the current short-selling ban.


Trading Considerations for Won Appreciation & Korean ADR Premium Volatility

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>One of the key takeaways of the Corporate Value Up disclosures on the KIND system is that it could potentially lead to alpha generating investing opportunities. </li>
<li>Since the last week of May, there have been 7 companies that provided specific Corporate Value up programs; (4 major financials) have outperformed KOSPI.</li>
<li>Companies such as KB Financial and Shinhan Financial that provide more meaningful Corporate Value Up action plans are likely to have greater impact on their share prices. </li>
</ul>


One of the key takeaways of the Corporate Value Up disclosures on the KIND system is that it could potentially lead to alpha generating investing opportunities. 
Since the last week of May, there have been 7 companies that provided specific Corporate Value up programs; (4 major financials) have outperformed KOSPI.
Companies such as KB Financial and Shinhan Financial that provide more meaningful Corporate Value Up action plans are likely to have greater impact on their share prices. 


Alpha Generating Opportunities from the Corporate Value Up Disclosures on the KIND System

<ul>
<li>Value-Up plan announcements had a significant immediate price impact, especially for Woori Financial and Shinhan Financial, amplified by recent dividend tax reductions.</li>
<li>We should target companies likely to announce value-up disclosures soon, focusing on those with prior notices. Notably, KB Financial and DB HiTek have issued prior notices.</li>
<li>Both companies hold many treasury shares. KB Financial is a dividend stock, with value-up disclosures likely during their Q3 and Q4 earnings announcements.</li>
</ul>


Value-Up plan announcements had a significant immediate price impact, especially for Woori Financial and Shinhan Financial, amplified by recent dividend tax reductions.
We should target companies likely to announce value-up disclosures soon, focusing on those with prior notices. Notably, KB Financial and DB HiTek have issued prior notices.
Both companies hold many treasury shares. KB Financial is a dividend stock, with value-up disclosures likely during their Q3 and Q4 earnings announcements.


Examining a Proactive Flow Trading Setup Targeting Korean Value-Up Disclosures

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Dec 20th which has an aggregated holding worth USD449.4bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,163mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Hyundai Glovis, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Celltrion.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Dec 20th which has an aggregated holding worth USD449.4bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,163mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Hyundai Glovis, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Celltrion.


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 20th): Hyundai Glovis, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Celltrion

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mirae-asset-tiger-top-10-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36042:1" rel="noopener">Mirae Asset Tiger Top 10 ETF (292150 KS)</a> tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Index and has an AUM of around US$1.2bn.</li>
<li>We currently forecast two potential changes at the next rebalance in June - one change is high probability while one could change depending on price moves over the next week.</li>
<li>The trade has performed well historically with positive performance till implementation followed by reversion post implementation.</li>
</ul>


The Mirae Asset Tiger Top 10 ETF (292150 KS) tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Index and has an AUM of around US$1.2bn.
We currently forecast two potential changes at the next rebalance in June - one change is high probability while one could change depending on price moves over the next week.
The trade has performed well historically with positive performance till implementation followed by reversion post implementation.


FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Possible in June

South Korea

KB Financial Group Inc. (the "Company"), in accordance with Financial Holding Companies Act, was established on September 29, 2008, through stock transfer with the former shareholders of its subsidiaries including Kookmin Bank in order to provide management services and financing to associated companies. The headquarters are located at Seoul, Korea

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KB Financial (105560 KS)

Trading Considerations for Won Appreciation & Korean ADR Premium Volatility

This post explores trading angles related to the Korean won's appreciation and the increased volatility of Korean ADR premiums.

Sanghyun Park

Alpha Generating Opportunities from the Corporate Value Up Disclosures on the KIND System

After the market close on 7 August, KB Financial (105560 KS) announced that it will cancel 9.98 million treasury shares, which represents 2.5% of...

Douglas Kim

Examining a Proactive Flow Trading Setup Targeting Korean Value-Up Disclosures

This post explores the feasibility and key targets of a proactive flow trading setup aimed at Korea's value-up plan disclosures.

Sanghyun Park

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 20th): Hyundai Glovis, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Celltrion

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Hyundai Glovis, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Possible in June

There could be two changes for the FnGuide Top 10 Index in June. Historically, the adds have outperformed the deletes pre-implementation and there...

Brian Freitas

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