Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>In the past week, two bottom up developments have dominated the financial market news flow in Australia: the belated announcement of CEO succession at Woolworths and renewed concerns that Australian banks represent a 'big short' thanks to rumours of the imminent collapse of residential house prices. </li><li>The losses announced by Woolworths in its home improvement division this week and decision to exit the business altogether serves as a timely and powerful signal to other companies about the dangers associated with investing for growth in the current environment of deficient demand.  Corporate Australia has already taken heed, with the economy on the precipice of a capex cliff.  The recently released ABS survey of capex intentions points to a 20% slide in business investment in the current financial year, which would represent the largest annual decline in over 25 years.</li><li>Any bubble talk around housing discounts the important role that dwelling investment and household consumption still has to play to support the outlook while the economy is on the precipice of a capex cliff.  Against the backdrop that interest rates will remain low for an extended period (and likely move lower from here), if there is a bubble in Australian housing it might well persist.  To take a cue from John Maynard Keynes, hedge funds seeking to capitalise on Australia's 'big short' will probably need an abundance of patience (and capital).</li></ul>

In the past week, two bottom up developments have dominated the financial market news flow in Australia: the belated announcement of CEO succession at Woolworths and renewed concerns that Australian banks represent a 'big short' thanks to rumours of the imminent collapse of residential house prices. The losses announced by Woolworths in its home improvement division this week and decision to exit the business altogether serves as a timely and powerful signal to other companies about the dangers associated with investing for growth in the current environment of deficient demand.  Corporate Australia has already taken heed, with the economy on the precipice of a capex cliff.  The recently released ABS survey of capex intentions points to a 20% slide in business investment in the current financial year, which would represent the largest annual decline in over 25 years.Any bubble talk around housing discounts the important role that dwelling investment and household consumption still has to play to support the outlook while the economy is on the precipice of a capex cliff.  Against the backdrop that interest rates will remain low for an extended period (and likely move lower from here), if there is a bubble in Australian housing it might well persist.  To take a cue from John Maynard Keynes, hedge funds seeking to capitalise on Australia's 'big short' will probably need an abundance of patience (and capital).

What the Capex Cliff Means for Australia's 'Big Short'

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence.  Bottom fishers will be tentative and choppy bearish markets are likely to persist.  Financials (led by Europe) are leading the falls in equities; regulatory pressure implemented in the wake of the global and Eurozone financial crises and litigation and compliance costs since the LIBOR and FX fixing scandals are coming home to roost and creating an echo of the financial stress that undermined global economic confidence in the crises of the last decade.  EUR is whippy as investors cope with Euro-centric financial sector stress, but this is only likely to embolden the ECB to adopt more aggressive policy easing measures.  It is possible they emulate the BoJ and adopt a tiered cash rate policy resplendent with a much lower more negative marginal cash rate.  The outcome would be much lower yields across the EUR curve and a weaker EUR (we much prefer to sell EUR against Gold; as discussed in our previous two reports). Australia has proven resilient to global economic and financial stress, but its banks are being infected by global pressures, and we see a significant risk that RBA scope to cut rates turns into an obligation before long.  We see a fallback in the AUD (again we prefer to sell against gold).

All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence.  Bottom fishers will be tentative and choppy bearish markets are likely to persist.  Financials (led by Europe) are leading the falls in equities; regulatory pressure implemented in the wake of the global and Eurozone financial crises and litigation and compliance costs since the LIBOR and FX fixing scandals are coming home to roost and creating an echo of the financial stress that undermined global economic confidence in the crises of the last decade.  EUR is whippy as investors cope with Euro-centric financial sector stress, but this is only likely to embolden the ECB to adopt more aggressive policy easing measures.  It is possible they emulate the BoJ and adopt a tiered cash rate policy resplendent with a much lower more negative marginal cash rate.  The outcome would be much lower yields across the EUR curve and a weaker EUR (we much prefer to sell EUR against Gold; as discussed in our previous two reports). Australia has proven resilient to global economic and financial stress, but its banks are being infected by global pressures, and we see a significant risk that RBA scope to cut rates turns into an obligation before long.  We see a fallback in the AUD (again we prefer to sell against gold).

AmpGFX - Dead-Cats and Body Blows, Financial Crisis Echo, RBA Scope to Become Obligation

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Do not be lulled by a false sense of security with high NPL coverage. The figures can decline quickly and China is the quintessential example. &nbsp;Differences in NPL coverage trends, can help frame where banks are in their NPL cycle or how well prepared they are making themselves. Or both.&nbsp;The stand out is China.

Do not be lulled by a false sense of security with high NPL coverage. The figures can decline quickly and China is the quintessential example. &nbsp;Differences in NPL coverage trends, can help frame where banks are in their NPL cycle or how well prepared they are making themselves. Or both.&nbsp;The stand out is China.

Beware of NPL Coverage Trends Across Asia

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

<ul><li>Balance sheet strength, management acuity, and regulatory systems matter more for financial services firms than other stock sectors.</li><li>Financial crises are rarely driven by economic shocks alone. Nonmacro factors embedded in the regulatory, competitive, political, and economic environments are bigger contributors to banking crises.</li><li>Leverage can be moat-destructive. Given the hefty amounts of financial and operating leverage in the business models of Financial Services firms, it is critical to focus on firms with stable management teams, consistent business strategies, and selective mergers and acquisitions policies.</li><li>Transformative deals are rarely moat-enhancing. With relationships, reputations and business culture all being critical contributors to business success, it is rare to see a firm pull off a "transformative" deal that does not disrupt one of these pillars, which is why most acquisitions fall short of their original intent.</li></ul>Analyst: Greggory Warren, CFA

Balance sheet strength, management acuity, and regulatory systems matter more for financial services firms than other stock sectors.Financial crises are rarely driven by economic shocks alone. Nonmacro factors embedded in the regulatory, competitive, political, and economic environments are bigger contributors to banking crises.Leverage can be moat-destructive. Given the hefty amounts of financial and operating leverage in the business models of Financial Services firms, it is critical to focus on firms with stable management teams, consistent business strategies, and selective mergers and acquisitions policies.Transformative deals are rarely moat-enhancing. With relationships, reputations and business culture all being critical contributors to business success, it is rare to see a firm pull off a "transformative" deal that does not disrupt one of these pillars, which is why most acquisitions fall short of their original intent.Analyst: Greggory Warren, CFA

<ul><li>The key company announcement during the week in Australia came from Woodside Petroleum, that it had provided Oil Search a confidential, all scrip, non-binding proposal to merge.&nbsp;</li><li>I recommend that investors avoid Woodside for four reasons: Mergers &amp; Acquisitions 101 says that acquirers that make all scrip bids typically perform poorly, it is not clear that Woodside can extract synergies from managing Oil Search's assets, integration of the target's assets will further lift Woodside's complexity and agency costs, and analysts continue to downgrade the stock's future growth prospects.</li><li>The sharp drop in consumer sentiment highlights that the elevated level of financial market volatility in recent months has adversely affected the psychology of the household sector.&nbsp; Nonetheless, a number of macro tailwinds are expected to support the outlook for discretionary retail spending.</li></ul>

The key company announcement during the week in Australia came from Woodside Petroleum, that it had provided Oil Search a confidential, all scrip, non-binding proposal to merge.&nbsp;I recommend that investors avoid Woodside for four reasons: Mergers &amp; Acquisitions 101 says that acquirers that make all scrip bids typically perform poorly, it is not clear that Woodside can extract synergies from managing Oil Search's assets, integration of the target's assets will further lift Woodside's complexity and agency costs, and analysts continue to downgrade the stock's future growth prospects.The sharp drop in consumer sentiment highlights that the elevated level of financial market volatility in recent months has adversely affected the psychology of the household sector.&nbsp; Nonetheless, a number of macro tailwinds are expected to support the outlook for discretionary retail spending.

Australia

Medibank Private Limited offers private health care coverage for hospital and ancillary services. The Company offers a range of health insurance products such as health, travel, pet, and life coverage to overseas students and visitors. Medibank serves customers throughout Australia.

Suncorp Group Ltd. offers retail and business banking, life and general insurance, superannuation and funds management services.  The Company's services include personal banking and loans, personal insurance products, credit cards, pension savings accounts, term deposits, property development finance, commercial lending, investments and lease financing.

QBE Insurance Group Limited is an insurance company which underwrites most forms of commercial and industrial insurance policies, as well as individual policies. QBE also manages Lloyds syndicates and provides investment management services. The Company provides its services both domestically and internationally.

Steadfast Group Ltd is a provider of services to broker businesses across Australia, New Zealand and Singapore. The Company has equity interests in insurance broker businesses, underwriting agencies and other complementary businesses.

NIB Holdings Ltd. offers health insurance products.  Depending on the specific product, the Company covers ambulance costs; and reimburses for costs not covered by Medicare including dental, optical, physiotherapy and natural therapies; and some hospitalization costs.

AUB Group Limited provides financial services. The Company offers equity-based risk management, insurance broking, and specialist underwriting agencies, as well as focuses on risk solutions for clients and strengthening our partners risk advisory capabilities.

PSC Insurance Group Limited provides insurance brokerage services. The Company offers services such as risk management, workers compensation, business protection, worth insurance, claims settlements. PSC Insurance Group conducts its business globally.

Latitude Group Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides personal, commercial, and business insurance products and services, as well as offers loans and credit card solutions. Latitude Group Holdings serves individuals, governments, municipalities, and businesses.

Generation Development Group Limited operates as an investment company. The Company provides tax effective investment solutions and development capital to financial sector businesses. Generation Development Group serves customers in Australia.

ASX Ltd is a demutualized company which operates Australia's primary national stock exchange and equity derivatives market. The ASX operates markets for equities, derivatives, fixed-interest securities and capital-raising for unlisted companies using advanced computer systems for both trading and settlement.

New China Life Insurance Company Limited provides life insurance in local and foreign currencies, acts as an insurance agent, provides checks, claims and insurance consulting. The Company's main products include life insurance, accident insurance, health insurance products and services.

Samsung Life Insurance Co., Ltd. provides insurance services. The Company offers life and health insurance services. Samsung Life Insurance serves customers in South Korea.

Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co., Ltd. provides insurance services. The Company offers auto, fire, marine, casualty, health, leisure, and retirement products and services. Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance serves customers in South Korea.

Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance (000810 KS)

Unum Group provides group disability and special risk insurance.  The Company provides disability insurance, group life insurance, and payroll-deducted voluntary benefits offered to employees at their worksites.

T&D Holdings, Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of Taiyo Life Insurance, Daido Life Insurance, and T&D Financial Life Insurance. The Company manages life insurance operations for its subsidiaries.

CNA Financial Corporation operates as an insurance holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides commercial property and casualty coverages such as risk management, information services, warranty, and claims administration. CNA Financial serves clients throughout the United States.

American Financial Group, Inc. provides multi-line property and casualty insurance.  The Company also sells tax-deferred annuities and certain life and supplemental health insurance products.  American Financial operates in the United States.

Great Eastern Holdings Limited operates in the life insurance business. The Company provides fund management services including retirement plans and endowments as well as life and health insurance, personal accident insurance, and general insurance

RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. is a global provider of reinsurance and insurance. The Company's business primarily consists of catastrophe reinsurance, specialty reinsurance, and individual risk business.

Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated provides reinsurance services. The Company offers life and health related reinsurance products and financial solutions. Reinsurance Group of America serves customers globally.

Insurance Australia Group Limited (IAG) is an Australian-based international general insurance group with operations in Australia, New Zealand, and Asia. The Group provides a range of personal and commercial insurance products, primarily motor vehicle and home insurance.

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Insurance Australia (IAG AU)

What the Capex Cliff Means for Australia's 'Big Short'

In the past week, two bottom up developments have dominated the financial market news flow in Australia: the belated announcement of CEO...

Sam Ferraro

AmpGFX - Dead-Cats and Body Blows, Financial Crisis Echo, RBA Scope to Become Obligation

All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence. Bottom...

Greg Gibbs

Beware of NPL Coverage Trends Across Asia

Do not be lulled by a false sense of security with high NPL coverage. The figures can decline quickly and China is the quintessential example....

Daniel Tabbush

Breaking the Bank

Balance sheet strength, management acuity, and regulatory systems matter more for financial services firms than other stock sectors. Financial...

Morningstar, Inc.

Weekly Impressions

The key company announcement during the week in Australia came from Woodside Petroleum, that it had provided Oil Search a confidential, all scrip,...

Sam Ferraro

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