Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inpex-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20665:1" rel="noopener">Inpex Corp (1605 JP)</a> announced Q2 earnings (<a href="https://www.inpex.co.jp/english/ir/library/pdf/result/e-result20220808.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">results</a>, <a href="https://www.inpex.co.jp/english/ir/pdf/e20220808_c.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation</a>), a revised <a href="https://www.inpex.co.jp/english/news/assets/pdf/20220808.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">full-year forecast</a> due to higher crude and lower yen, an 11%-above-guidance dividend, and a big buyback.</li>
<li>The buyback is for up to 120mm shares spending up to ¥120bn, to run through year-end. Practically speaking, it is limited to 80mm shares or so at current price. </li>
<li>This should be a non-negligible portion of Real World Float, and I expect the buyback to have impact over the next five months.</li>
</ul>


Today Inpex Corp (1605 JP) announced Q2 earnings (results, presentation), a revised full-year forecast due to higher crude and lower yen, an 11%-above-guidance dividend, and a big buyback.
The buyback is for up to 120mm shares spending up to ¥120bn, to run through year-end. Practically speaking, it is limited to 80mm shares or so at current price. 
This should be a non-negligible portion of Real World Float, and I expect the buyback to have impact over the next five months.


Inpex (1605 JP) - Earnings, Forecasts and a BIGLY Buyback

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a>'s Second Court hearing is scheduled for 15 June and the stock is likely to stop trading at the close on that day. </li>
<li>Estimated passive tracker selling is 62m shares (A$809m; 31.2 days of ADV) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a> and that could open up some arb opportunities.</li>
<li>We expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/whitehaven-coal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14253:1" rel="noopener">Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU)</a> will be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coronado-global-resources-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27473:1" rel="noopener">Coronado Global Resources Inc (CRN AU)</a> could be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Crown Resorts (CWN AU)'s Second Court hearing is scheduled for 15 June and the stock is likely to stop trading at the close on that day. 
Estimated passive tracker selling is 62m shares (A$809m; 31.2 days of ADV) of Crown Resorts (CWN AU) and that could open up some arb opportunities.
We expect Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU) will be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index, while Coronado Global Resources Inc (CRN AU) could be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 


Crown Resorts (CWN AU): Passive Sell Flow and Potential ASX100/200 Replacements

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Eight proposals seem a lot for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>. However, if you are a PE fund on the radar of private equity LP investors, you have to get involved.</li>
<li>The size of the trade is apparently 38 million shares. If you have been in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woodside-petroleum-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:177:1" rel="noopener">Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos Ltd (STO AU)</a> trade, take the deal, tactically.</li>
<li>Perhaps a big pharma could make a splashy bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14210:1" rel="noopener">Genting Bhd (GENT MK)</a>'sTauRx, but we're not there yet.</li>
</ul>


Eight proposals seem a lot for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP). However, if you are a PE fund on the radar of private equity LP investors, you have to get involved.
The size of the trade is apparently 38 million shares. If you have been in the Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU) / Santos Ltd (STO AU) trade, take the deal, tactically.
Perhaps a big pharma could make a splashy bid for Genting Bhd (GENT MK)'sTauRx, but we're not there yet.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Woodside, Genting Berhad, SPH REIT, Virtus Health, Xiamen Port

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>BHP shareholders received US$18bn worth of Woodside petroleum shares on 1st Jun 2022, post the completion of the merger.</li>
<li>As a part of the distribution, some shares belonging to ineligible and other small shareholders are being sold by the sales agent, JPM, in a US$823m block.</li>
<li>In this note, we will look at the possible deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


BHP shareholders received US$18bn worth of Woodside petroleum shares on 1st Jun 2022, post the completion of the merger.
As a part of the distribution, some shares belonging to ineligible and other small shareholders are being sold by the sales agent, JPM, in a US$823m block.
In this note, we will look at the possible deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


BHP Woodside Placement - Here Comes the Block, Will Be Tricky Trading over the Next Few Days

<ul>
<li>The Australian Financial Review's "Street Talk" column says the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woodside-petroleum-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:177:1" rel="noopener">Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU)</a> (new ticker is WDS AU) block is out. </li>
<li>Bookbuild is at $28.65 to $30.19 a share with is a 0% to 5.1% discount to the close (stock was up 1.44% today).</li>
<li>The size of the trade is apparently 38 million shares. If you have been in the Woodside/Santos trade, I would take the deal, tactically.</li>
</ul>


The Australian Financial Review's "Street Talk" column says the Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU) (new ticker is WDS AU) block is out. 
Bookbuild is at $28.65 to $30.19 a share with is a 0% to 5.1% discount to the close (stock was up 1.44% today).
The size of the trade is apparently 38 million shares. If you have been in the Woodside/Santos trade, I would take the deal, tactically.


Woodside Block - Medium Bigly, Well-Prepared, and More To Come

Australia

Santos Limited explores for and produces natural gas, crude oil, condensate, naphtha and liquid petroleum gas.  The Company conducts major onshore and offshore petroleum exploration activities at oil and gas fields in Australia (Cooper/Eromanga Basins), the United States (Gulf of Mexico), Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. The Company also transports crude oil by pipeline.

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Santos Ltd (STO AU)

Inpex (1605 JP) - Earnings, Forecasts and a BIGLY Buyback

inpex (1605) has announced earnings (as expected), revised guidance (still light), a div hike (nice) and a big buyback. Language suggests it will...

Travis Lundy

Crown Resorts (CWN AU): Passive Sell Flow and Potential ASX100/200 Replacements

Crown Resorts has received all reg approvals. The court hearing takes place 15 Jun & the stock could stop trading at the close. There will be large...

Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Woodside, Genting Berhad, SPH REIT, Virtus Health, Xiamen Port

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

BHP Woodside Placement - Here Comes the Block, Will Be Tricky Trading over the Next Few Days

BHP shareholders received US$18bn worth of Woodside petroleum shares on 1st Jun 2022. As a part of the merger, JPM is looking to sell around...

Sumeet Singh

Woodside Block - Medium Bigly, Well-Prepared, and More To Come

The Woodside "Sale Facility" block is out at a 0-5.1% discount. This block is well-flagged, somewhat well-prepared, and some people are long Santos...

Travis Lundy

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