Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).</li>
<li>Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.</li>
<li>We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).
Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.
We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.


Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International</a> 1Q2022 numbers reflect its prime positioning as a beneficiary of recovering domestic growth in Indonesia and its exposure to the commodities boom through <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-tractors-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:698:1" rel="noopener">United Tractors (UNTR IJ)</a>.</li>
<li>It has increased market share in autos through Toyota and Daihatsu plus holds a strong position in providing auto, motorcycle, and heavy equipment financing providing further geared exposure. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International</a> has a war chest from the sale of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-permata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:728:1" rel="noopener">Bank Permata</a> which is yet to be deployed but could be in the digital space as a future potential catalyst.</li>
</ul>



Astra International 1Q2022 numbers reflect its prime positioning as a beneficiary of recovering domestic growth in Indonesia and its exposure to the commodities boom through United Tractors (UNTR IJ).
It has increased market share in autos through Toyota and Daihatsu plus holds a strong position in providing auto, motorcycle, and heavy equipment financing providing further geared exposure. 

Astra International has a war chest from the sale of Bank Permata which is yet to be deployed but could be in the digital space as a future potential catalyst.


Astra International (ASII IJ) - The Perfect Storm Driving Performance

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.</li>
<li>The past week saw insights on Singapore's economic outlook, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek-goto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scg-packaging-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28684:1" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging (SCGP TB)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12" rel="noopener">Daniel Tabbush</a> also took a look and Philippine Banks highlighting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-banking-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22788:1" rel="noopener">China Banking (CHIB PM)</a> as his top pick. We also comment on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telekomunikasi-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1051:1" rel="noopener">Telekom (TLKM IJ)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
The past week saw insights on Singapore's economic outlook, Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ), Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ), GoTo (GOTO IJ), and SCG Packaging (SCGP TB).

Daniel Tabbush also took a look and Philippine Banks highlighting China Banking (CHIB PM) as his top pick. We also comment on Astra International (ASII IJ) and Telekom (TLKM IJ). 


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - BCA's Transactional, ASSA & Anteraja, and Philippine Banks

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Three stocks remain, 11 new join the fray</li>
<li>Since inception, the portfolio has gained 195% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 27%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Three stocks remain, 11 new join the fray
Since inception, the portfolio has gained 195% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 27%


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> held an informative post-results analyst briefing that provided a glimpse into its future plans, with capex set to double in 2022 with a war chest ready.</li>
<li>Other than investing in expanding existing businesses and in areas such as EVs, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra</a> also has a pipeline of deals related to the growing digital ecosystem in Indonesia. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> is a proxy for the recovery in Indonesia's economy through cars, motorbikes, and commodities but has an emerging digital and sustainability edge plus reasonable valuations.</li>
</ul>



Astra International (ASII IJ) held an informative post-results analyst briefing that provided a glimpse into its future plans, with capex set to double in 2022 with a war chest ready.
Other than investing in expanding existing businesses and in areas such as EVs, Astra also has a pipeline of deals related to the growing digital ecosystem in Indonesia. 

Astra International (ASII IJ) is a proxy for the recovery in Indonesia's economy through cars, motorbikes, and commodities but has an emerging digital and sustainability edge plus reasonable valuations.


Astra International (ASII IJ) - A Glimpse into the Future

Indonesia

PT Solusi Tunas Pratama Tbk develops and constructs telecommunication towers for the wireless communications industry.

PT Wintermar Offshore Marine Tbk offers offshore support services, primarily for the oil and gas industry.  The Company owns and operates a fleet of vessels including AHTS and PSVs equipped with Dynamic Positioning System, and also manages and charters third party vessels. Over the past years, Wintermar has expanded out of Indonesia and now operates in 12 countries, supported by a strong and professional team and high quality vessels.

PT Jasa Marga Persero Tbk operates the Indonesian highway system.  The Company collects tolls, maintains the road surfaces, and offers towing and ambulance services.

PT AKR Corporindo Tbk distributes chemical products such as caustic soda, Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) resin, sorbitol, soda ash, and sodium sulfate.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also manufactures chemicals, operates storage tanks and warehouses, and provides logistic services.

PT Transcoal Pacific Tbk. provides logistics services. The Company offers sea transportation, warehousing, and fleets management services for energy related products. Transcoal Pacific serves customers in Indonesia.

PT Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk. (WIKA:IJ) one of the largest listed state-owned engineering, procurement and construction (“EPC”) companies in Indonesia with diversified construction projects was established In 1960 under the name Perusahaan Negara Bangunan Widjaja Karja.

WIKA have four business segments: Industry, Infrastructure & Building, Energy & Industrial Plant, and Realty & Property, Through these segments, we have successfully undertaken key national infrastructure projects including Balikpapan-Samarinda Toll Road, Semanggi Interchange, Jatigede Dam, Soekarno-Hatta Airport Terminal 3, Ngurah Rai Airport and the Suramadu Bridge, Serang-Panimbang Toll Road and Jakarta-Bandung High Speed Railway.

As of December 2021, WIKA is owned by the Government as to 65,05% and by public shareholders as to 34,95%, with market capitalization IDR9,91 Trillion and total order book IDR88,12 trillion

PT Petrosea Tbk provides engineering construction and contract mining services for the oil and gas, mining, and infrastructure industries. The Company also provides heavy equipment rentals throughout Indonesia for its clients.

PT Pelayaran Tempuran Emas Tbk provides sea transportation services. The company has network of branches and agents throughout Indonesia and Singapore. Pelayaran Tempuran Emas also offers logistic supports for cargo movements.

PT Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada Tbk constructs, operates, and manages toll highways systems.  The Company derives its revenue primarily from toll gate proceeds, project management fees, and related services.

PT Jaya Sukses Makmur Sentosa Tbk. provides general construction services. The Company offers contracting, trade, land management, procurement, and other related services. Jaya Sukses Makmur Sentosa serves customers in Indonesia.

Golden Energy and Resources Ltd. engages in the exploration, mining, marketing and trading of thermal coal. The Company 's coal mining concession areas cover South and Cental Kalimantan, as well as Jambi, Indonesia.

New Times Energy Corporation Limited, through its subsidiaries, engages in business development in natural resources industry

Yinson Holdings Berhad is an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides offshore support services such as trading and logistics to the upstream oil and gas sector. Yinson Holdings' business also includes commodity trading.

Akastor ASA is an investment company. The Company invests in a portfolio of companies in the oilfield services sector, providing engineering services, technologies, product solutions and field-life solutions for the oil and gas industry. Akastor also invests in real estate and other smaller-sized holdings.

Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. mainly provides door-to-door parcel delivery services. The Company has developed a nationwide delivery system specializing in time-specified delivery. Yamato Holdings offers moving services and other comprehensive transportation services including logistics services for both domestic and overseas customers as well as financial and autoworks services.

Samsung Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. manufactures crude oil tankers, container vessels, bulk carriers, cruisers, and passenger ferries.  The Company also produces steel and bridge structures, and material handling equipment.  In addition, Samsung Heavy Industries provides civil engineering, architectural, and plant construction services.

Seatrium Ltd offers engineering solutions for the offshore, marine, and energy industries. The Company provides rigs and floaters, repairs and upgrades, offshore platforms, and specialized shipbuilding. Seatrium serves customers worldwide.

Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric Co., Ltd. provides and integrates train-borne electrical systems for the PRC Railway industry.  The Company also develops, manufactures, and sells train power converters, auxiliary power supply equipment and control systems for trains for urban rail systems

Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric Co., Ltd. (3898 HK)

Cathay Pacific Airways Limited operates scheduled airline services. The Company also provides related services, including airline catering, aircraft handling, and engineering.

GMR Infrastructure is an infrastructure company with interests in airports, power and roads. The Company is developing a greenfield international airport at Hyderabad, and is also operating, managing and developing the Delhi airport. Additionally, it is involved in development and operation of power plants and road projects in India.

PT United Tractors Tbk distributes and leases construction machinery including Komatsu, Nissan Diesel, Scania, Bomag, Valmet, and Tadano brands.  The Company also provides contract mining services, and trades and assembles heavy equipment.

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United Tractors (UNTR IJ)

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Vermilion Research

Astra International (ASII IJ) - The Perfect Storm Driving Performance

Astra International's 1Q2022 numbers reflect its prime positioning as a beneficiary of recovering domestic growth in Indonesia and its exposure to...

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The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - BCA's Transactional, ASSA & Anteraja, and Philippine Banks

The past week saw insights on Singapore's economic outlook, Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ), Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ), GoTo (GOTO IJ), and SCG...

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We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Portfolio changes: Three stocks remain, and 11 new join...

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Astra International (ASII IJ) - A Glimpse into the Future

Astra International is a proxy for the recovery in Indonesia's economy through cars, motorbikes, and commodities but has an emerging digital and...

Angus Mackintosh

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