Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Autonomous Driving represents the perfect fusion of our love affair with automobiles and our fascination with artificial intelligence. It has been part of our collective imagination for decades, first epitomized at the 1939 New York World Fair Futurama exhibit which posited an automated highway system (AHS), sponsored by General Motors. Research on AHS conducted at The Ohio State University led to the development of the world's first partially autonomous vehicle in 1962. Fast forward half a century and the goal of achieving autonomous driving is firmly fixed in the glare of our automobile headlights. Leading automakers, as well as technology companies, are promising autonomous or at least highly autonomous automobiles within the next three years. At the forefront, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11369" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1">Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US)</a> represented by its automotive spin-off Waymo, is in the process of launching the world's first driverless taxi service in Phoenix, Arizona. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18811" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18811:1">General Motors Co (GM US)</a>, arguably the closest to Waymo in technology terms, has announced similar plans to launch an autonomous ride-sharing service in 2019.Not all is rosy in the autonomous driving garden, however. The sector has been plagued by high-profile defections of key staff leaving to either create their own startups or join competitors. These moves have led to equally high-profile and in some cases, embarrassing, law-suits. Other companies rush to hire talented artificial intelligence engineers has decimated the research ranks of leading universities.The safety and reliability of autonomous driving technology on our streets today has also been thrown into doubt in recent times. Just two days ago, on March 18'th, the first fatal accident involving an autonomous vehicle occurred in Phoenix Arizona, details <a href="https://electrek.co/2018/03/19/uber-self-driving-prototyp-fatal-crash-police/" target="_blank">here</a>. That vehicle was a Volvo XC90 and was part of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/430" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:430:1">Uber Technologies Inc</a> self-driving test fleet in the city. According to initial reports, the vehicle was operating in autonomous mode and had a safety driver on board. While we need to await the outcome of this particular investigation, previous incidents involving other autonomous vehicles highlight some astonishing shortcomings of the technology being used on our streets today. Indeed, there are now serious questions about the viability of so-called Level 3 autonomous driving in so far as they rely on emergency intervention by a driver highly likely to have been distracted by something more exciting than monitoring an automobile driving by itself. Autonomous driving is a subject far too broad to be covered in a single Insight. Consider this a primer where we begin by examining the origins of autonomous driving, tracing its roots back to 1960s which, by no coincidence, was also the starting point for much of the research on modern-day artificial intelligence. We look at the specific factors which combined to propel autonomous driving from the AI laboratories of prestigious universities to the drawing boards of multinationals around the globe. We review the framework for the different levels of autonomous driving and highlight the fact that most auto OEM's choose to largely ignore them. We then examine in detail the aforementioned issues with Level 3 autonomous driving and reveal that the technology used in the Volvo XC90, the vehicle involved in the recent fatal accident in Phoenix, specifically warns in its user manual that it should not be used for city driving and that it cannot detect pedestrians, cyclists etc. Recognizing the seminal role that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11369" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1">Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US)</a> has played in advancing the technology, we provide an in-depth review of their self-driving initiative from its inception as a secretive Google X project to its current day incarnation as Waymo. By way of contrast, we examine the autonomous driving ambitions of one of the world's leading auto OEMs, General Motors, and provide a detailed review of their progress to date. Finally, we address the question on everybody's mind when it comes to autonomous driving - are we there yet?

Autonomous Driving represents the perfect fusion of our love affair with automobiles and our fascination with artificial intelligence. It has been part of our collective imagination for decades, first epitomized at the 1939 New York World Fair Futurama exhibit which posited an automated highway system (AHS), sponsored by General Motors. Research on AHS conducted at The Ohio State University led to the development of the world's first partially autonomous vehicle in 1962. Fast forward half a century and the goal of achieving autonomous driving is firmly fixed in the glare of our automobile headlights. Leading automakers, as well as technology companies, are promising autonomous or at least highly autonomous automobiles within the next three years. At the forefront, Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US) represented by its automotive spin-off Waymo, is in the process of launching the world's first driverless taxi service in Phoenix, Arizona. General Motors Co (GM US), arguably the closest to Waymo in technology terms, has announced similar plans to launch an autonomous ride-sharing service in 2019.Not all is rosy in the autonomous driving garden, however. The sector has been plagued by high-profile defections of key staff leaving to either create their own startups or join competitors. These moves have led to equally high-profile and in some cases, embarrassing, law-suits. Other companies rush to hire talented artificial intelligence engineers has decimated the research ranks of leading universities.The safety and reliability of autonomous driving technology on our streets today has also been thrown into doubt in recent times. Just two days ago, on March 18'th, the first fatal accident involving an autonomous vehicle occurred in Phoenix Arizona, details here. That vehicle was a Volvo XC90 and was part of Uber Technologies Inc self-driving test fleet in the city. According to initial reports, the vehicle was operating in autonomous mode and had a safety driver on board. While we need to await the outcome of this particular investigation, previous incidents involving other autonomous vehicles highlight some astonishing shortcomings of the technology being used on our streets today. Indeed, there are now serious questions about the viability of so-called Level 3 autonomous driving in so far as they rely on emergency intervention by a driver highly likely to have been distracted by something more exciting than monitoring an automobile driving by itself. Autonomous driving is a subject far too broad to be covered in a single Insight. Consider this a primer where we begin by examining the origins of autonomous driving, tracing its roots back to 1960s which, by no coincidence, was also the starting point for much of the research on modern-day artificial intelligence. We look at the specific factors which combined to propel autonomous driving from the AI laboratories of prestigious universities to the drawing boards of multinationals around the globe. We review the framework for the different levels of autonomous driving and highlight the fact that most auto OEM's choose to largely ignore them. We then examine in detail the aforementioned issues with Level 3 autonomous driving and reveal that the technology used in the Volvo XC90, the vehicle involved in the recent fatal accident in Phoenix, specifically warns in its user manual that it should not be used for city driving and that it cannot detect pedestrians, cyclists etc. Recognizing the seminal role that Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US) has played in advancing the technology, we provide an in-depth review of their self-driving initiative from its inception as a secretive Google X project to its current day incarnation as Waymo. By way of contrast, we examine the autonomous driving ambitions of one of the world's leading auto OEMs, General Motors, and provide a detailed review of their progress to date. Finally, we address the question on everybody's mind when it comes to autonomous driving - are we there yet?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Hon Hai Precision Industry / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hon Hai shares have hit a new all-time high and have just risen past our target price of NT$155, surging after investors flocked to Hon Hai on AI news.</li>
<li>Hon Hai showcased two key technologies at Nvidia's GTC conference last week: Nvidia-based AI servers with liquid cooling systems and an AI autonomous driving controller using Nvidia's Orin X processor.</li>
<li>Hon Hai's sharp rally appears to have partly been caused by a short squeeze; While we like the long-term fundamentals and increased TP to NT$170, Hon Hai appears near-term overbought.</li>
</ul>


Hon Hai shares have hit a new all-time high and have just risen past our target price of NT$155, surging after investors flocked to Hon Hai on AI news.
Hon Hai showcased two key technologies at Nvidia's GTC conference last week: Nvidia-based AI servers with liquid cooling systems and an AI autonomous driving controller using Nvidia's Orin X processor.
Hon Hai's sharp rally appears to have partly been caused by a short squeeze; While we like the long-term fundamentals and increased TP to NT$170, Hon Hai appears near-term overbought.


Hon Hai (Foxconn): After the 50% Surge, Where Can It Go From Here?

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharti-hexacom" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40858:1" rel="noopener">Bharti Hexacom</a> is looking to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>Bharti Hexacom (BH) is a communications solutions provider offering consumer mobile services, fixed-line telephone and broadband services to customers in the Rajasthan and the North East telecommunication circles in India.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Bharti Hexacom is looking to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO.
Bharti Hexacom (BH) is a communications solutions provider offering consumer mobile services, fixed-line telephone and broadband services to customers in the Rajasthan and the North East telecommunication circles in India.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Bharti Hexacom Pre-IPO - The Negatives - No Clear Rationale for Listing

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Massive TSMC Rises 13.8% in Just a Week; Mediatek a Top 10 Gainer for Second Week in a Row</li>
<li>TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Sales Should Be Gradually Increasing QoQ in 2024F; IPhone 16 Is on Schedule. </li>
<li>PC Monitor: Long Dell Vs. Short Acer Update; Dell &amp; HPQ Results Indicate Opportunity in Asus </li>
</ul>


Massive TSMC Rises 13.8% in Just a Week; Mediatek a Top 10 Gainer for Second Week in a Row
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Sales Should Be Gradually Increasing QoQ in 2024F; IPhone 16 Is on Schedule. 
PC Monitor: Long Dell Vs. Short Acer Update; Dell &amp; HPQ Results Indicate Opportunity in Asus 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Surge Leads Taiwan Stocks Higher; Advanced Chip Packaging in Focus

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> is ramping up its CoWoS capacity, with the aim of increasing new capacity by 32k wafer/month in the end of 2024F.</li>
<li>In the second half of 2024F, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> iPhone 16 will contribute to revenue from shipments.</li>
<li>The semiconductor industry is expected to rebound in 2024F, with TSMC being one of the leaders.</li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) is ramping up its CoWoS capacity, with the aim of increasing new capacity by 32k wafer/month in the end of 2024F.
In the second half of 2024F, the Apple (AAPL US) iPhone 16 will contribute to revenue from shipments.
The semiconductor industry is expected to rebound in 2024F, with TSMC being one of the leaders.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Sales Should Be Gradually Increasing QoQ in 2024F; IPhone 16 Is on Schedule.

United States

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories. The Company also offers payment, digital content, cloud and advertising services. Apple Inc.'s customers are primarily in consumer, small & mid-sized business, education, enterprise and government markets worldwide.

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Apple (AAPL US)

Autonomous Driving- Are We There Yet?

I find it fascinating to read this again, almost six years to the day since I published it. I intend to publish an update on this topic in the...

William Keating

Hon Hai (Foxconn): After the 50% Surge, Where Can It Go From Here?

Hon Hai shares surged to new all-time high after showcasing AI technologies at Nvidia's GTC conference. We believe a short squeeze may have been...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Bharti Hexacom Pre-IPO - The Negatives - No Clear Rationale for Listing

The company is said to be looking to launch its IPO next week, which will entirely comprise of an offer for sale of half of the stake of Government...

Sumeet Singh

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Surge Leads Taiwan Stocks Higher; Advanced Chip Packaging in Focus

TSMC and Mediatek see significant stock gains, with TSMC ramping advanced packaging capacity and the iPhone 16 is on schedule. Dell and HPQ...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Sales Should Be Gradually Increasing QoQ in 2024F; IPhone 16 Is on Schedule.

TSMC is expanding CoWoS to increase production by 32k wafers/month in 2024E, with Apple iPhone 16 contributing to sales in 2H24. Semiconductor...

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Autonomous Driving- Are We There Yet?

I find it fascinating to read this again, almost six years to the day since I published it. I intend to publish an update on this topic in the...

William Keating

Hon Hai (Foxconn): After the 50% Surge, Where Can It Go From Here?

​Hon Hai shares surged to new all-time high after showcasing AI technologies at Nvidia's GTC conference. We believe a short squeeze may have been...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Bharti Hexacom Pre-IPO - The Negatives - No Clear Rationale for Listing

The company is said to be looking to launch its IPO next week, which will entirely comprise of an offer for sale of half of the stake of Government...

Sumeet Singh

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Surge Leads Taiwan Stocks Higher; Advanced Chip Packaging in Focus

​TSMC and Mediatek see significant stock gains, with TSMC ramping advanced packaging capacity and the iPhone 16 is on schedule. Dell and HPQ...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Sales Should Be Gradually Increasing QoQ in 2024F; IPhone 16 Is on Schedule.

​TSMC is expanding CoWoS to increase production by 32k wafers/month in 2024E, with Apple iPhone 16 contributing to sales in 2H24. Semiconductor...

Patrick Liao

Hon Hai shares surged to new all-time high after showcasing AI technologies at Nvidia's GTC conference. We believe a short squeeze may have been...

TSMC and Mediatek see significant stock gains, with TSMC ramping advanced packaging capacity and the iPhone 16 is on schedule. Dell and HPQ...

TSMC is expanding CoWoS to increase production by 32k wafers/month in 2024E, with Apple iPhone 16 contributing to sales in 2H24. Semiconductor...