Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> has significantly outperformed this year, driven by a global AI-driven tailwind resulting in substantial revenue growth acceleration and a significant earnings upgrade cycle.</li>
<li>Record levels of FCF generation have supported dividend increases, and whilst future DPS expectations seem conservative, the current dividend yield suggests future increases have been priced in.</li>
<li>TSMC trades just above its 5-year historic average trading levels and at a premium to its key competitors, other smaller listed foundries, its main customers, and large suppliers.</li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) has significantly outperformed this year, driven by a global AI-driven tailwind resulting in substantial revenue growth acceleration and a significant earnings upgrade cycle.
Record levels of FCF generation have supported dividend increases, and whilst future DPS expectations seem conservative, the current dividend yield suggests future increases have been priced in.
TSMC trades just above its 5-year historic average trading levels and at a premium to its key competitors, other smaller listed foundries, its main customers, and large suppliers.


TSMC (2330-TT): Revisiting Previous Bullish Themes Following Outperformance

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Consumer Industry Update:Hubei province takes the lead in implementing the home appliance replacement policy (+)</li>
<li>ATAT US/TCOM US:The year-on-year decline in hotel RevPAR narrowed in the second week of August, showing resilient in hotel demand.(+/+)</li>
<li>ATAT US/TCOM US: MCT plans to cut the prices of scenic spot tickets, bodes well to tourism demand. (+/+)</li>
</ul>


Consumer Industry Update:Hubei province takes the lead in implementing the home appliance replacement policy (+)
ATAT US/TCOM US:The year-on-year decline in hotel RevPAR narrowed in the second week of August, showing resilient in hotel demand.(+/+)
ATAT US/TCOM US: MCT plans to cut the prices of scenic spot tickets, bodes well to tourism demand. (+/+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:ATAT US/TCOM US/1810 HK/AAPL US/1519 HK/ZTO US/XPEV US/2454 TT/QCOM US/LKNCY US

AI and Global Deep Tech, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

AI and Global Deep Tech

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Taiwan Semiconductor Co. / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC's July 2024 revenue reached NT$256.95 billion, up 23.6% MoM and 44.7% YoY. Year-to-date revenue grew by 30.5% to NT$1.52 trillion, driven by strong orders from Apple, Intel, and Nvidia. </li>
<li>TSMC forecasts Q3 revenue of $22.4-23.2 billion, anticipating over 25% full-year growth. July revenue already at 35% of Q3 estimates. Analysts advise against assuming these results for the entire quarter.</li>
<li>TSMC is capitalizing on AI and mobile demand, with analysts maintaining an "Outperform" rating with average upside of 14%, noting potential growth from 5G, HPC, and automotive sectors.</li>
</ul>


TSMC's July 2024 revenue reached NT$256.95 billion, up 23.6% MoM and 44.7% YoY. Year-to-date revenue grew by 30.5% to NT$1.52 trillion, driven by strong orders from Apple, Intel, and Nvidia. 
TSMC forecasts Q3 revenue of $22.4-23.2 billion, anticipating over 25% full-year growth. July revenue already at 35% of Q3 estimates. Analysts advise against assuming these results for the entire quarter.
TSMC is capitalizing on AI and mobile demand, with analysts maintaining an "Outperform" rating with average upside of 14%, noting potential growth from 5G, HPC, and automotive sectors.


TSMC's July Revenue Hits Record NT$256.95 Billion, Boosted by AI Servers and IPhone 16 Demand

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P DJI have started a market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover.</li>
<li>There is US$281bn tracking the Select Sector Indices from the SPDR ETFs. The market consultation will have a larger impact on indices where there is a high degree of concentration.</li>
<li>The largest inflows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/conocophillips" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18090:1" rel="noopener">Conocophillips</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netflix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20451:1" rel="noopener">Netflix</a> while the largest outflows will be from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chevron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11091:1" rel="noopener">Chevron</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/procter-gamble-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:978:1" rel="noopener">Procter &amp; Gamble</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1" rel="noopener">Exxon Mobil</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costco-wholesale-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18404:1" rel="noopener">Costco Wholesale</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta Platforms</a>.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P DJI have started a market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover.
There is US$281bn tracking the Select Sector Indices from the SPDR ETFs. The market consultation will have a larger impact on indices where there is a high degree of concentration.
The largest inflows are expected in Apple, Conocophillips, Amazon.com and Netflix while the largest outflows will be from Microsoft, NVIDIA, Chevron, Procter &amp; Gamble, Exxon Mobil, Costco Wholesale and Meta Platforms.


Select Sector Indices - HUGE Impact of Proposed Constituent Weighting Changes

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>A Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/cybersecurity-firm-trend-micro-explores-sale-sources-say-2024-08-08/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> overnight says Trend Micro might be up for sale. This caused the ADRs to jump 10% overnight. The remaining co-founders are 65 and 70 this year. </li>
<li>The stock has effectively gone sideways the last few years as Value Act has been activisting. Now one has to exercise one's imagination to think about a possible sale price. </li>
<li>On a DCF basis, a PE fund couldn't reasonably do this. Multiples are too high. That means a strategic buyer would be more likely. But Who? Why? And How much?</li>
</ul>


A Reuters article overnight says Trend Micro might be up for sale. This caused the ADRs to jump 10% overnight. The remaining co-founders are 65 and 70 this year. 
The stock has effectively gone sideways the last few years as Value Act has been activisting. Now one has to exercise one's imagination to think about a possible sale price. 
On a DCF basis, a PE fund couldn't reasonably do this. Multiples are too high. That means a strategic buyer would be more likely. But Who? Why? And How much?


Trend Micro (4704) Up For Sale? Would Be a HUGE Buyout But How Huge? And Who?

United States

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories. The Company also offers payment, digital content, cloud and advertising services. Apple Inc.'s customers are primarily in consumer, small & mid-sized business, education, enterprise and government markets worldwide.

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Apple (AAPL US)

TSMC (2330-TT): Revisiting Previous Bullish Themes Following Outperformance

In this insight, we revisit our bullish outlook for TSMC by analysing its revenue growth and margin prospects, Free Cash Flow generation outlook,...

Wium Malan, CFA

[Blue Lotus Daily]:ATAT US/TCOM US/1810 HK/AAPL US/1519 HK/ZTO US/XPEV US/2454 TT/QCOM US/LKNCY US

Hubei province leads in home appliance replacement policy; hotel RevPAR decline narrows in August; MCT cuts scenic spot ticket prices to boost...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

TSMC's July Revenue Hits Record NT$256.95 Billion, Boosted by AI Servers and IPhone 16 Demand

In July 2024, TSMC saw a 23.6% MoM revenue rise, reaching NT$256.95 billion driven by strong demand for 5nm/3nm tech from major clients like Apple...

Mint Finance

Select Sector Indices - HUGE Impact of Proposed Constituent Weighting Changes

The market consultation to change the index weighting methodology will set off a US$28bn trade in Sep. Inflows to Apple, Conocophillips, Amazon.com...

Brian Freitas

Trend Micro (4704) Up For Sale? Would Be a HUGE Buyout But How Huge? And Who?

Trend Micro - target of Value Act which has gone sideways for 2 years - is apparently considering a sale. Founders are 65-70. They need new...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC (2330-TT): Revisiting Previous Bullish Themes Following Outperformance

In this insight, we revisit our bullish outlook for TSMC by analysing its revenue growth and margin prospects, Free Cash Flow generation outlook,...

Wium Malan, CFA

[Blue Lotus Daily]:ATAT US/TCOM US/1810 HK/AAPL US/1519 HK/ZTO US/XPEV US/2454 TT/QCOM US/LKNCY US

​Hubei province leads in home appliance replacement policy; hotel RevPAR decline narrows in August; MCT cuts scenic spot ticket prices to boost...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

TSMC's July Revenue Hits Record NT$256.95 Billion, Boosted by AI Servers and IPhone 16 Demand

In July 2024, TSMC saw a 23.6% MoM revenue rise, reaching NT$256.95 billion driven by strong demand for 5nm/3nm tech from major clients like Apple...

Mint Finance

Select Sector Indices - HUGE Impact of Proposed Constituent Weighting Changes

The market consultation to change the index weighting methodology will set off a US$28bn trade in Sep. Inflows to Apple, Conocophillips, Amazon.com...

Brian Freitas

Trend Micro (4704) Up For Sale? Would Be a HUGE Buyout But How Huge? And Who?

Trend Micro - target of Value Act which has gone sideways for 2 years - is apparently considering a sale. Founders are 65-70. They need new...

Travis Lundy

Hubei province leads in home appliance replacement policy; hotel RevPAR decline narrows in August; MCT cuts scenic spot ticket prices to boost...