Independent Research, US Dominant Players, Investment Talk

Investment Talk

Independent Research, US Dominant Players

Investment Talk is for readers who wish to learn about companies that are potentially outside of their own circle of research, as well as those who are longing to become part of a community of like-minded investors and learn more about investment research. I would describe myself as a long-term investor who typically takes a 3Y to 5Y outlook, before reassessing once that period matures. I follow the adage that one should research, reach a conclusion, and then verify and continue to hold so long as the thesis remains intact. My own investing style is one that seeks to find dominant players within their respective market who have shown signs of monopoly or oligopolistic behaviour, unlikely to be disrupted, in tandem with discovering market disruptors who have a high likelihood of disrupting their respective market. Equally (and weighted accordingly) I seek to discover more nuanced, misunderstood, situations with a shorter time frame.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>You might have heard the news that Nasdaq Inc announced1 a “special rebalance” for the Nasdaq 100; an index which tracks the largest technology stocks across a range of America’s sectors.</li><li>This reshuffle seeks to <strong>“address overconcentration in the index by redistributing the weights”</strong>; specifically the weightings of the Big 7 <em>(Google, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla, and Meta)</em> who, together, account for ~54% of the index.</li><li>The rebalance will be based on the shares outstanding as of July 3rd, and changes are expected to be announced on July 14th; taking effect by July 24th2.</li></ul>

You might have heard the news that Nasdaq Inc announced1 a “special rebalance” for the Nasdaq 100; an index which tracks the largest technology stocks across a range of America’s sectors.This reshuffle seeks to “address overconcentration in the index by redistributing the weights”; specifically the weightings of the Big 7 (Google, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla, and Meta) who, together, account for ~54% of the index.The rebalance will be based on the shares outstanding as of July 3rd, and changes are expected to be announced on July 14th; taking effect by July 24th2.

The Nasdaq's Special Rebalance Is Not So Special

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives, MBI Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives

MBI is the abbreviation for “Mostly Borrowed Ideas”. Why “Mostly Borrowed Ideas?” As a generalist, I do not have a background in any particular sector. I enjoy navigating across industries, businesses, and countries to learn, understand, and connect the dots. In any case, most ideas and innovations are incremental in nature. Very few of us are smart enough to come up with truly original or groundbreaking ideas. I am Abdullah Al-Rezwan. I was born and brought up in Bangladesh. I went to University of Dhaka for my undergrad and majored in Finance. After working three and half years in Equity Research (Sell-side) covering Financial Sector in Bangladesh, I left Bangladesh to pursue my MBA in the US. I graduated within top 10% of the class from Cornell University's two-year MBA program and worked on the buy-side following my graduation. During my time at Cornell, I won two stock pitch competitions and also became finalists in four other competitions. I thoroughly enjoyed my stint as a generalist in the US large cap team at Madison Investments and covered a wide range of companies from UnitedHealth to Amazon and Boeing before US immigration reality paused my career in investment management. As my work authorization expired, I moved to Canada in January, 2021. Then in early 2022, I was able to return to the US.

Equity Bottom-Up

Meta Platforms (Facebook) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>First some caveats: while we have all probably read Charlie Munger’s quote “I never allow myself to hold an opinion on anything that I don't know the other side's argument better than they do”, the reality is this is exceptionally uncommon and challenging.</li><li>In fact, when investors mention risks about a company they like, they often deliberately choose strawman arguments from the other side and advertently or inadvertently ignore steelman arguments.</li><li>I will try to avoid strawman bear cases (and boy there are many), and only outline the bear cases that indeed concern me as a shareholder.</li></ul>

First some caveats: while we have all probably read Charlie Munger’s quote “I never allow myself to hold an opinion on anything that I don't know the other side's argument better than they do”, the reality is this is exceptionally uncommon and challenging.In fact, when investors mention risks about a company they like, they often deliberately choose strawman arguments from the other side and advertently or inadvertently ignore steelman arguments.I will try to avoid strawman bear cases (and boy there are many), and only outline the bear cases that indeed concern me as a shareholder.

Independent Investment Research & Investor, Maverick Equity Research

Maverick Equity Research

Independent Investment Research & Investor

Independent Investment Research & Investor: value, dividend and growth stocks. Risk management & hedging for an all weather portfolio.

<ul><li>1st chart shows us the 2023 % returns &amp; the holdings weightings while the 2nd table is a return attribution analysis which tells us exactly that 10.25% (1025 b.p basis points) are due to just 7 stocks, the M7 (Magnificent Seven) tech stocks: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla, Meta/Facebook &amp; Google/Alphabet. Let that sink in!</li><li>The laggard are the following top 7 stocks: their weight is small in the index, but note the individual returns which are materially negative in 2023</li><li>To continues smoothly here, the S&amp;P 500 with the stocks above their 52-week lows &amp; below their 52-week highs: tech, AI, semiconductors and consumer discretionary are leading and hot, while energy, cruises &amp; travel cooled off in the last year</li></ul>

1st chart shows us the 2023 % returns &amp; the holdings weightings while the 2nd table is a return attribution analysis which tells us exactly that 10.25% (1025 b.p basis points) are due to just 7 stocks, the M7 (Magnificent Seven) tech stocks: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla, Meta/Facebook &amp; Google/Alphabet. Let that sink in!The laggard are the following top 7 stocks: their weight is small in the index, but note the individual returns which are materially negative in 2023To continues smoothly here, the S&amp;P 500 with the stocks above their 52-week lows &amp; below their 52-week highs: tech, AI, semiconductors and consumer discretionary are leading and hot, while energy, cruises &amp; travel cooled off in the last year

The S&P 500 Report: Performance, Profitability, Valuation & Key Metrics - Ed #2

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

<ul><li>This past week, the S&amp;P 500 snapped a five-week winning streak and Nasdaq snapped an eight-week winning streak.</li><li>Last week also saw the Nasdaq post 4 consecutive days of net new lows, signaling caution.</li><li>A healthy and much needed pullback could offer opportunities ahead of the upcoming second quarter earnings season.</li></ul>

This past week, the S&amp;P 500 snapped a five-week winning streak and Nasdaq snapped an eight-week winning streak.Last week also saw the Nasdaq post 4 consecutive days of net new lows, signaling caution.A healthy and much needed pullback could offer opportunities ahead of the upcoming second quarter earnings season.

<ul><li>“Big Infrastructure”- Under the Surface Megatrend Continues While AI/semiconductors and related Big Tech names such as Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Alphabet, etc. capture significant attention within the business media today, secular growth pockets in the infrastructure space don’t seem to be gathering as much attention as it probably should deserve in the infrastructure space.</li><li>As shown in recent legislation, one of the few areas of agreement within a divided US Congress is infrastructure investment and spending.</li><li>Passed in November 2021, the the $1.2 trillion bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act unleashed $550 billion in new spending for things like roads and bridges ($110B), power grid modernization ($65B), railroads ($66B), water infrastructure ($55B), airports ($25B), etc.</li></ul>

“Big Infrastructure”- Under the Surface Megatrend Continues While AI/semiconductors and related Big Tech names such as Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Alphabet, etc. capture significant attention within the business media today, secular growth pockets in the infrastructure space don’t seem to be gathering as much attention as it probably should deserve in the infrastructure space.As shown in recent legislation, one of the few areas of agreement within a divided US Congress is infrastructure investment and spending.Passed in November 2021, the the $1.2 trillion bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act unleashed $550 billion in new spending for things like roads and bridges ($110B), power grid modernization ($65B), railroads ($66B), water infrastructure ($55B), airports ($25B), etc.

United States

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

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Meta Platforms (Facebook) (META US)

The Nasdaq's Special Rebalance Is Not So Special

The rebalance will be based on the shares outstanding as of July 3rd, and changes are expected to be announced on July 14th; taking effect by July...

Investment Talk

Meta's Achilles Heel(s)

I will try to avoid strawman bear cases (and boy there are many), and only outline the bear cases that indeed concern me as a shareholder.

MBI Deep Dives

The S&P 500 Report: Performance, Profitability, Valuation & Key Metrics - Ed #2

The laggard are the following top 7 stocks: their weight is small in the index, but note the individual returns which are materially negative in 2023

Maverick Equity Research

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 6/26

This past week, the S&P 500 snapped a five-week winning streak and Nasdaq snapped an eight-week winning streak. Last week also saw the Nasdaq post...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 6/12

As shown in recent legislation, one of the few areas of agreement within a divided US Congress is infrastructure investment and spending.

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

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