Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Postal Savings Bank of China C / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>NIM is continuing to decline, from ~2.5% at its recent peak to ~1.8% in the most recent quarter. This may be from higher rescheduled loans. </li>
<li>Loan growth ascent is strangely steady, and not indicative at all, of any business cycle. This alone is a concern, for true visibility of figures. </li>
<li>Impairment costs do not suggest concern on underlying credit metrics, but with far higher loan balances in the past few years, this is an even greater worry.</li>
</ul>


NIM is continuing to decline, from ~2.5% at its recent peak to ~1.8% in the most recent quarter. This may be from higher rescheduled loans. 
Loan growth ascent is strangely steady, and not indicative at all, of any business cycle. This alone is a concern, for true visibility of figures. 
Impairment costs do not suggest concern on underlying credit metrics, but with far higher loan balances in the past few years, this is an even greater worry.


China Postal Savings Bank - Lower NIM, But Steady Lending & Credit Costs Suggests All Is Fine?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI 2024 dividend futures have moved higher following mainland China banks announcing that they will pay out interim dividends starting this year.</li>
<li>The HSCEI 2025 dividend futures have moved higher too, though they have lagged the HSCEI 2024 dividend futures.</li>
<li>Even though the HSCEI 2024/25 dividend steepener has dropped by around 10 points in the last few weeks, we see further downside in the near-term.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI 2024 dividend futures have moved higher following mainland China banks announcing that they will pay out interim dividends starting this year.
The HSCEI 2025 dividend futures have moved higher too, though they have lagged the HSCEI 2024 dividend futures.
Even though the HSCEI 2024/25 dividend steepener has dropped by around 10 points in the last few weeks, we see further downside in the near-term.


HSCEI Dividend Futures: Sell the 2024/25 Steepener

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>A-Shares only two days of the week and were up small Monday and Tuesday. H-shares took a breather Wednesday after trailing A-shares, then rallied hard on Thursday and Friday. </li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK6.0bn. Net buys every day and now 22 days straight, but buying still appears foreign-led price-taking action. </li>
<li>The only big news this week in China/HK was probably the Politburo's new stance of trying to do more for the mainland property market, concentrating on unsold homes. </li>
</ul>


A-Shares only two days of the week and were up small Monday and Tuesday. H-shares took a breather Wednesday after trailing A-shares, then rallied hard on Thursday and Friday. 
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK6.0bn. Net buys every day and now 22 days straight, but buying still appears foreign-led price-taking action. 
The only big news this week in China/HK was probably the Politburo's new stance of trying to do more for the mainland property market, concentrating on unsold homes. 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 30-Apr/3-May 2024); Banks/SOEs Bought, Meituan, Tencent, Mobile Sold

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for BOC, Tencent, China Mobile, ZTO Express, Anta Sports.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight flows for BOC, Tencent, China Mobile, ZTO Express, Anta Sports.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (April): 12M High of $10.7bn Inflows

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 26th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Bank Of China, Tencent, China Mobile, HKEx, Zto Express, Meituan, HSBC.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 26th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Bank Of China, Tencent, China Mobile, HKEx, Zto Express, Meituan, HSBC.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Apr 26th): BOC, Tencent, China Mobile, HKEx, ZTO, Meituan, HSBC

China

Bank of China Ltd provides a complete range of banking and other financial services to individual and corporation customers worldwide.  The bank's services include retail banking, Great Wall credit card and debit card services, consumer credit, foreign currency transaction, corporate banking, settlement and clearing,investment banking, and fund management businesses.

Price Gauge
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Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)

China Postal Savings Bank - Lower NIM, But Steady Lending & Credit Costs Suggests All Is Fine?

China Postal Savings Bank shows far higher loans with almost no increase of impairment costs. NIM reduction is radical, we wonder if this is partly...

Daniel Tabbush

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Sell the 2024/25 Steepener

The HSCEI 2054 div futures have moved higher following China banks announcing that interim dividends will be paid. There is some upside from...

Brian Freitas

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 30-Apr/3-May 2024); Banks/SOEs Bought, Meituan, Tencent, Mobile Sold

SOUTHBOUND traded only two days this week as Mainland markets were closed Weds onward. Still, they were net buyers. HK ramped sharply Thursday and...

Travis Lundy

Hong Kong Connect Flows (April): 12M High of $10.7bn Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for April and highlight flows for BOC, Tencent, China Mobile, ZTO Express, Anta Sports.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Apr 26th): BOC, Tencent, China Mobile, HKEx, ZTO, Meituan, HSBC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Bank Of China, Tencent, China Mobile, HKEx, Zto Express,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)