HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai International Airport / Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-international-airport-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6511:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH)</a> extended its good traffic performance to Oct with impressive 23.9% YoY surge in domestic aircraft movement and 17.5% YoY growth in domestic passenger throughput. It also achieved the best growth in cargo and mail traffic in last month when compared with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-baiyun-international-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10819:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (600004 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-capital-international-airport-bcia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10626:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) (694 HK)</a>.We believe international traffic and cargo volume will be the increasingly important drivers for SIAC over the next 12 months, with the key reasons being: 1.)  positive news of COVID-19 vaccine development; 2.) more accommodative China policies of the US; 3.) RCEP's boost to regional airfreight market; and 4.) added confidence in business meetings in Shanghai.

Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH) extended its good traffic performance to Oct with impressive 23.9% YoY surge in domestic aircraft movement and 17.5% YoY growth in domestic passenger throughput. It also achieved the best growth in cargo and mail traffic in last month when compared with Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (600004 CH) and Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) (694 HK).We believe international traffic and cargo volume will be the increasingly important drivers for SIAC over the next 12 months, with the key reasons being: 1.)  positive news of COVID-19 vaccine development; 2.) more accommodative China policies of the US; 3.) RCEP's boost to regional airfreight market; and 4.) added confidence in business meetings in Shanghai.

Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH): Extending Traffic Outperformance to Oct

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-international-airport-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6511:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH)</a> logged a loss of Rmb352m in 3Q20, representing a 24.6% QoQ loss narrowing. In absolute terms, it is worse than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-baiyun-international-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10819:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (600004 CH)</a> (loss of Rmb131m) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-capital-international-airport-bcia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10626:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) (694 HK)</a> (loss of Rmb347m). However, we still prefer SIAC given its exposure to the gradual recovery in international traffic, growth in freight volume, limited amount of capex and less risk of traffic competition/diversion.For GBIA and BCIA, we think that the better 3Q20 results cannot cover the serious structural concerns they are facing. GBIA have worries including competition from other airports, the potential construction of a new airport at the Guangzhou vicinity and the likely rise in capex due to capacity expansion.  Meanwhile, traffic diversion to Beijing Daxing International Airport is still the medium term issue to cap BCIA's pace of recovery.

Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH) logged a loss of Rmb352m in 3Q20, representing a 24.6% QoQ loss narrowing. In absolute terms, it is worse than Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (600004 CH) (loss of Rmb131m) and Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) (694 HK) (loss of Rmb347m). However, we still prefer SIAC given its exposure to the gradual recovery in international traffic, growth in freight volume, limited amount of capex and less risk of traffic competition/diversion.For GBIA and BCIA, we think that the better 3Q20 results cannot cover the serious structural concerns they are facing. GBIA have worries including competition from other airports, the potential construction of a new airport at the Guangzhou vicinity and the likely rise in capex due to capacity expansion.  Meanwhile, traffic diversion to Beijing Daxing International Airport is still the medium term issue to cap BCIA's pace of recovery.

Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH): Narrowing Loss in 3Q20

China Southern Airlines / Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a> has caught up in its passenger traffic in Sep with a 27.5% YoY decline, compared with -32.2% for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-eastern-airlines-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1079:1" rel="noopener">China Eastern Airlines Co (H) (670 HK)</a> and -38.6% for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)</a>. More importantly, domestic passenger traffic reached a growth of 1.6% YoY, suggesting a full recovery in last month. CSA also performed well on capacity management - achieving the best passenger, cargo and overall load factors for Sep and 9M20 among the big three. We expect the good traffic recovery, solid load factors, QoQ increase in average fare and sharp appreciation in Rmb will support encouraging bottom line rebound in 3Q20, with a slight potential of reporting a profit in the quarter. In our view, CSA remains inexpensive at 0.8x 12-month forward P/B given its underlying recovery momentum and below-average valuation.

China Southern Airlines (1055 HK) has caught up in its passenger traffic in Sep with a 27.5% YoY decline, compared with -32.2% for China Eastern Airlines Co (H) (670 HK) and -38.6% for Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK). More importantly, domestic passenger traffic reached a growth of 1.6% YoY, suggesting a full recovery in last month. CSA also performed well on capacity management - achieving the best passenger, cargo and overall load factors for Sep and 9M20 among the big three. We expect the good traffic recovery, solid load factors, QoQ increase in average fare and sharp appreciation in Rmb will support encouraging bottom line rebound in 3Q20, with a slight potential of reporting a profit in the quarter. In our view, CSA remains inexpensive at 0.8x 12-month forward P/B given its underlying recovery momentum and below-average valuation. 

China Southern Airlines (1055 HK): Impressive Sep Sets Strong Tone for 4Q20

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-international-airport-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6511:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH)</a> witnessed sustained strength on its domestic and cargo throughput in Sep, outperforming both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-baiyun-international-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10819:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (600004 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-capital-international-airport-bcia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10626:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) (694 HK)</a> by very significant margins. In fact, SIAC is the only airport among the big three to consecutive YoY growth in domestic passenger traffic in the last two months. In Sep, domestic aircraft movement surged 18.9% YoY and domestic passenger throughput grew 13.5% YoY, and both are impressive turnouts. In our view, the strong domestic performance, good demand during the "double festival" Golden Week and China International Import Expo to be held in Shanghai during 5-10 Nov should ensure continued strength in SIAC's traffic in 4Q20.

Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH) witnessed sustained strength on its domestic and cargo throughput in Sep, outperforming both Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (600004 CH) and Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) (694 HK) by very significant margins. In fact, SIAC is the only airport among the big three to consecutive YoY growth in domestic passenger traffic in the last two months. In Sep, domestic aircraft movement surged 18.9% YoY and domestic passenger throughput grew 13.5% YoY, and both are impressive turnouts. In our view, the strong domestic performance, good demand during the "double festival" Golden Week and China International Import Expo to be held in Shanghai during 5-10 Nov should ensure continued strength in SIAC's traffic in 4Q20.

Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH): Best Momentum Against Peers in Sep

Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport / Equity Bottom-Up

There is full recovery in both domestic aircraft movement and passenger throughput at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-baiyun-international-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10819:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (600004 CH)</a> in Sep, which registered YoY growth of 8.5% and 0.7%, respectively. The figures suggested further strength in the domestic market and should reflect positively on a QoQ in GBIA's profitability improvement. Also, the initial figures for the Golden Week have pointed to a 4.9% higher daily aircraft movement and 8.2% higher daily passenger throughput than the average in Sep. We believe the rebound of international passenger will be an increasingly important driver for GBIA's traffic recovery over the next 12 months. For example, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a> has already increased its international flights departing from Guangzhou from 16 in Sep to 20 in Oct. GBIA has also obtained approval for non-public issuance of A-shares to its parent to raise fresh equity of Rmb3.2bn, and we believe these are all positive developments for the company.

There is full recovery in both domestic aircraft movement and passenger throughput at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (600004 CH) in Sep, which registered YoY growth of 8.5% and 0.7%, respectively. The figures suggested further strength in the domestic market and should reflect positively on a QoQ in GBIA's profitability improvement. Also, the initial figures for the Golden Week have pointed to a 4.9% higher daily aircraft movement and 8.2% higher daily passenger throughput than the average in Sep. We believe the rebound of international passenger will be an increasingly important driver for GBIA's traffic recovery over the next 12 months. For example, China Southern Airlines (1055 HK) has already increased its international flights departing from Guangzhou from 16 in Sep to 20 in Oct. GBIA has also obtained approval for non-public issuance of A-shares to its parent to raise fresh equity of Rmb3.2bn, and we believe these are all positive developments for the company.

Guangzhou Baiyun Intl Airport (600004 CH): Sep Marked the First Dual YoY Growth

China

Jiangsu Expressway Company Ltd. constructs, operates, manages and maintains expressways in China.  The Company also provides passenger transportation and other ancillary services along including fueling stations, restaurants, car maintenance and repair and advertising.

Ningbo Port Company Limited primarily provides container, iron ore, crude oil and other cargo handling and related services. The Company also provides integrated logistics and other businesses.

China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings Co., Ltd. offers transportation infrastructure construction services. The Company constructs roads, bridges, ports, waterway infrastructures, and other projects. China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings also operates investment management businesses.

China Merchants Expressway Net (001965 CH)

Shandong Hi-speed Co Ltd. operates and maintains toll roads, bridges, tunnels, and other infrastructure facilities.  The Company operates the Jiqing Highway, the Taiqu Road, the Jinan-Huanghe Bridge, the Pingyin Bridge, and the Binzhou Bridge. Shandong Hi-speed also retails petroleum products.

Shanghai International Port (Group) Co., Ltd is a holding company that owns interests in container and port service companies.

Shanghai International Port Group (600018 CH)

Qingdao Port International Co., Ltd. engages in providing a wide range of port related services, ranging from basic port services, such as stevedoring and  storage services, to ancillary and extended services such  as logistics service sand financing-related services.

Shenzhen Expressway Company Limited offers toll expressway and road construction and investment services. The Company provides expressway operation, maintenance, and service station leasing services. Shenzhen Expressway also conducts real estate development, advertising, and engineering consulting businesses.

Zhejiang Expressway Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, designs, constructs, operates, and manages high grade roads, as well as develops and operates certain ancillary services, such as technical consultation, advertising, automobile servicing, and fuel facilities.

Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Co., Ltd. operates the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport and provides related transportation services, including ground, passenger, storage, airplane maintenance and repair, and other services.  The Company also provides food, space rental, and advertising services.

Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (600004 CH)

Tangshan Port Group Co., Ltd. provides bulk cargo handling, transport, warehousing and other logistics business.  The Company also offers utilities, port information and other professional port services.

International Container Terminal Services, Inc. provides containerized cargo handling services. The Company also manages and operates the Manila International Container Terminal and port.

Aeroports de Paris (ADP) manages all the civil airports in the Paris area.  The Company also develops and operates light aircraft aerodromes.  ADP offers air transport related services, and business services such as office rental.

Getlink S.E. provides transport support services. The Company operates mobility infrastructures such as cross-channel transport networks, rail freight, and tunnels. Getlink serves customers in France and the United Kingdom.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste S.A.B. de C.V. operates airports in Mexico.  The Company holds 50 year concessions, beginning in 1998, to manage airports in Cancun, Cozumel, Merida, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Huatulco, Tapachula, Minatitlan, and Villahermosa.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV operates and maintains airports in the Pacific and central regions of Mexico.

Auckland International Airport Limited owns and operates the Auckland International Airport.  The Airport includes a single runway, an international terminal and two domestic terminals.  The Airport also has commercial facilities which includes airfreight operations, car rental services, commercial banking center and office buildings.

Qube Holdings Ltd. is a logistics company. The Group operates in divisions covering Automotive, Bulk and General Stevedoring, Landside Logistics and Strategic Development Assets.

Taiwan High Speed Rail Corporation operates the high speed railway system (HSR) in Taiwan, running 345 KM from Taipei to Kaohsiung.

Atlas Arteria Limted operates as an infrastructure developer and operator. The Company constructs highways, roads, bridges, and tunnels. Atlas Arteria also collects toll. Atlas Arteria serves clients worldwide.

Shanghai International Airport Co., Ltd. operates Pudong Airport and Hongquiao airport in Shanghai.   The Company provides a full range of services including air traffic control, terminal management, cargo handling, advertising, space rental, and other related services.

Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH)

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Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH)